Nuclear Power and Sustainable Development

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1 Nuclear Power and Sustainable Development H-Holger Rogner International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm IX International School on Nuclear Power November Warsaw, Poland

2 The energy tri-lemma Energy security Supply security Reliability Access Competiveness Generating costs Affordability Environmental considerations Climate change Local and regional pollution Present generation High income countries Environment Society Economy Low and lowest income countries 1. All these factors (and more) determine the sustainability of a particular technology (on a life cycle basis) 2. Decision makers have to face and deal with trade-offs between them Tomorrow s generation

3 Nuclear power & Sustainable Development a long time controversy Exhaustive debate at CSD-9 in 2001

4 Contra: Nuclear & Sustainability No long-term solution to nuclear waste Intergenerational burden Nuclear weapons proliferation Physical security of nuclear installations Safety risks of nuclear power are excessive Transboundary consequences, decommissioning & transport Too expensive No public acceptance WIPP

5 Pro: Nuclear & Sustainability Brundtland 1) SD definition about keeping options open Expands electricity supplies ( connecting the unconnected ) Provides reliable base-load electricity and other energy services Reduces harmful emissions Generates minimal GHG emissions on a life cycle basis Puts uranium to productive use Increases human & technological capital Is ahead in internalising externalities 1) Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs

6 Nuclear power & Sustainable Development a long time controversy Exhaustive debate Agreement to disagree on nuclear srole in sustainable development Unanimous agreement that choice belongs to countries Text adopted on sustainable energy reads: giving a greater share of the energy mix to renewable energies, improving energy efficiency and greater reliance on advanced energy technologies, including fossil fuel technologies Such terminology has survived to the very day (see SDG 7a) Note: Neither the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development nor the Paris Agreement (PA) documents contain the term nuclear

7 SDG 7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all 7.1 By 2030, ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services 7.2 By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix 7.3 By 2030, double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency 7.a By 2030, enhance international cooperation to facilitate access to clean energy research and technology, including renewable energy, energy efficiency and advancedand cleaner fossil-fuel technology, and promote investment in energy infrastructure and clean energy technology 7.b By 2030, expand infrastructure and upgrade technology for supplying modern and sustainable energy services for all in developing countries, in particular least developed countries and small island developing States

8 The economics of nuclear power Key advantages of nuclear power Nuclear power plants are cheap to operate Stable & predictable generating costs Long life time Small fuel volumes Supply security (insurance premium) Excellent GHG mitigation technology Low external costs (so far no credit applied) Key challenges of nuclear power High upfront capital costs Lumpiness of investment Finance Long lead times (planning, construction, etc.) Sensitive to interest rates and general price escalation Poor track record for plant completion Long payback periods Regulatory/policy risks/acceptance Market risks

9 Relative attributes of electricity generating technologies Nuclear Coal steam Gas CCGT Wind onshore & solar PV Investment cost Very high Moderate Low Moderate-high Construction time 4-10 years 4-5 years 2-3 years years Operational & maintenance cost Low-moderate Moderate-high Low Very low Fuel costs Very low Low-moderate Low-very high Nil Operational characteristics Baseload, limited flexibility Baseload, moderate flexibility Peak & mid-load, high flexibility Intermittency, low load factor, nondispatchable CO 2 -eqemissions Negligible High-very high Moderate-high Negligible Key risks Completion, regulatory, policy, public acceptance, market Regulatory (CO 2 and pollution), public acceptance, market Regulatory (CO 2 and pollution), market Regulatory (policy changes regarding subsidies), market Note: Energy economics often means comparative assessment Source: Adapted from IEA WEO, 2014

10 Overnight costs (OC) for MWe generating capacity Biomass/biogas Geothermal Hydro large Hydro small Offshore wind Onshore wind CSP PV large PV commercial PV residential Gas - OCGT Gas - CCGT Nuclear Coal CCS Coal Billion US$ (2013) Source: NEA/IEA, 2015

11 Actual OC investments per unit Biomass/biogas (75 MW) Geothermal (50 MW) Hydro large(500 MW) Hydro small(5 MW) Offshore wind (200 MW) Onshore wind (50 MW) CSP (125 MW) Solar PV large(20 MW) PV commercial(0.05 MW PV resident(0.005 MW) Gas - OCGT (50 MW) Gas - CCGT (200 MW) Nuclear (1000 MW) Coal CCS (400 MW) Coal (400 MW) Billion US$ (2013) Source: NEA/IEA, 2015

12 Generating costs (LCOE) Biomass/biogas Geothermal Hydro Hydro small Offshore wind Onshore wind CSP PV large PV commercial PV residential Gas - OCGT Gas - CCGT Nuclear Coal CCS Coal US$ per MWh Source: NEA/IEA, 2015

13 Different generating cost levels Plant-level costs Grid-level costs System costs

14 The German electricity mix 2016 Renewable generating capacity exceeds peak demand Intermittency of wind & solar (low load factors) require back-up or storage Limited flexibility of traditional base load technologies GW Peak demand 87.4 GW 96 GW Total installed capacity GW Biomass Oil prod. Gas Hard coal Lignite Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Capacity Total generation 548 TWh Biomass Gas Hard coal Lignite Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Generation TWh Wind Solar Hydro Load factor Nuclear Lignite Hard coal Gas Oil Biomass 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

15 The changing role of conventional power (MW) 400 Operation of gas combined cycle turbines (CCGT) in the European electricity system Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8 Source: Pasini, 2012, OECD/IEA ETP2014

16 Illustration of electricity system costs Profile (variability) cost: Costs caused by the variability in the output of intermittency of wind, solar, etc. (back-up cost) Balancing (uncertainty) cost: Costs of uncertainty in the output of intermittent generation (frequent and close to real time changes in plant schedules, higher reserves) Grid-related (location) costs: Costs associated with the transmission and distribution of intermittent electricity from remote locations EUR/MWh LCOE Profile costs Balancing costs Grid costs Shortterm system LCOE Short-term integration costs Flexibility options System LCOE Integration costs Generation costs

17 Average annual cost of electricity supply 10% penetration level Average annual cost of electricity supply (USD/MWh) Finland France Germany Rep. of Korea Reference Wind onshore Wind offshore Solar United Kingdom United States Source: NEA 2012

18 Average annual cost of electricity supply 30% penetration level Average annual cost of electricity supply (USD/MWh) Finland France Germany Rep. of Korea Reference Wind onshore Wind offshore Solar United Kingdom United States Source: NEA 2012

19 Cost effect of intermittent renewables Marginal cost in /MWh Demand Past Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Marginal cost in /MWh Demand Today Intermittent renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas

20 Typical nuclear electricity generating cost breakdown new nuclear build (OCED) 5% real discount rate Decommissioning 1% O&M 26% 7.1% Uranium Investment 56% Fuel cycle 17% 0.7% 5.3% 1.4% Conversion Enrichment Fuel fabrication 2.8% Back-end activities Sources: OECD/NEA, WNA, NEI

21 Nuclear power and energy security Small fuel volumes Long refueling cycles Supplier diversity Uranium a small share in generating costs Uranium resources are plentiful International fuel bank Cost components in total generating costs (5% discount rate) 100% % % % % 80 50% 70 40% % 40 20% % 10 0% 0 Nuclear Coal Coal CCS Gas CCGT Wind CSP Investment Decommissioning O&M Fuel cycle* Fossil fuel Uranium US$/MWh Doubling of resource costs Nuclear Coal Gas Gas cheap Adapted from IEA/NEA 2015 and NEA 2003

22 Two different energy trajectories Electricity supply Finland: Nuclear expansionto 60% of Germany: Nuclear phase-out by 2022 Electricity prices Finland: Lowest in the EU Germany: Among the highestin the EU Environmental considerations / climate mitigation Finland: Well on target Germany: Recently increasing GHG emissions and off-target Key to Finland's success: the government's effective and inclusive planning and consenting regime (IEA, 2013)

23 Environment Nuclear power Key advantages of nuclear power Low air pollution emissions Low life-cycle GHG emissions Lower emission of ionized radiation than average coal-fired electricity Small land requirements Small fuel & waste volumes Wastes are managed Proven intermediary storage Final storage of HLW technically feasible Key challenges of nuclear power No final high level waste repository in operation High toxicity Needs to be isolated for long time periods Potential burden to future generations Long-term environment degradation after severe accidents Demonstration of the safe disposal of HLW waste

24 Mitigation Role of different electricity generating technologies Solar thermal Solar PV Wind - Wind - Biomass Hydro Gas - CCS Gas Coal - CCS Coal Nuclear gco 2 eq/kwh Nuclear power: Very low lifetime GHG emissions make the technology a potent climate change mitigation option Source: based on UNEP, Ecoinvent, 2017

25 Air pollution

26 Air pollution from selected electricity chains 3.00E E E E E E E E E E E E E E+00 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 SO2 NOx PM10 kg (SO2, NOx, PM10)/kWh kg (SO2, NOx, PM10)/kWh Natural gas Natural gas CC Cogen Nuclear Hydro Wind onshore Wind offshore PV Lignite Hard coal Oil Natural gas Natural gas CC Cogen Nuclear Hydro Wind onshore Wind offshore PV Source: Adapted from NEA (2007)

27 Externalities -electricity generation Biomass (woodchips) CHP Biomass (straw) CHP Solar thermal, parabolic trough Solar PV, open space Solar PV, roof Wind off-shore Wind on-shore Hydropower, pump storage Hydropower, dam (reservoir) Hydropower, run of river >100 MW Hydropower, run of river <100 MW Hydropower, run of river 10 MW Natural gas turbine Natural gas combined cycle Lignite IGCC Lignite condensing power plant Hard coal IGCC Hard coal condensing power plant Light oil gas turbine Heavy oil condensing power plant Nuclear power plant Human Health Loss of Biodiversity Crop N deposition & crops O 3 Crops SO 2 Materials: SO 2 & NO x Other pollutants - human health Radionuclides - generic Climate Change - generic Euro per MWh Source: EU CASES Project (Markandya et al. 2011)

28 Impact of carbon prices Climate Finance 120 $/MWh $/t CO2 30$/t CO2 20$/t CO2 10$/t CO2 Base costs $/MWh Nuclear low Nuclear high 0 Coal Coal CCS CCGT CSP

29 Global electricity-related CO 2 emissions abatement in the 450ppm Scenario relative to the NPS Gt CO 2 NPS -11 Gt 450ppm CO 2 emissions Gt CO 2 Reduction by Efficiency % CCS % Nuclear % Wind % Solar % Hydro % Bioenergy % Other % Total CO 2 avoidance CCS = carbon capture & storage % Source: Adapted from IEA WEO 2015

30 Global electricity in a 2 o C future Biomass 2.3% Wind 3.8% Solar 0.9% Other Ren 0.4% Hydro 16.2% Coal 39.0% Nuclear 10.6% Natural gas 22.7% Oil 4.1% TWh Other 1.9% Wind 18.0% Solar 12.7% Coal 7.4% Oil 0.6% Gas 15.8% Nuclear 17.9% Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Wind Solar Other Hydro 20.2% Source: IEA WEO, 2016 Bioenergy 5.6%

31 EU 28 electricity in a 2 o C global future Solar 3.3% Other 1.1% Bioenergy 5.5% 2015 Hydro 11.5% Wind 9.3% Nuclear 26.5% Coal 24.5% Gas 16.4% Oil 1.9% TWh Other 2.1% Solar 8.5% Coal 2.8% Gas 7.2% Oil 0.1% Wind 30.4% Nuclear 26.6% Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Wind Solar Other Bioenergy 9.4% Hydro 12.9% Source: IEA WEO, 2016

32 Nuclear Fuel: Small volumes, high energy contents 1 pellet produces the energy of 1.5 tonnesof coal Each pellet produces 5000 kwh

33 Final spent nuclear fuel (SNF) disposal

34 Safety Nuclear power Perception Nuclear power is dangerous It can never be made safe Nuclear plants are atomic bombs Safe is not safe enough Ionizing radiation is man-made Profit trumps safety No public acceptance Reality Safety is an integral part of plant design & operation Nuclear power has an excellent safety record Lessons learned from past accidents Safety culture, peer reviews & best practices Note: No radiation related deaths from Fukushima No room for complacency

35 Elements of nuclear safety: Defense in Depth

36 Typical barriers confining radioactive materials

37 Post Fukushima: Unchanged drivers behind the renaissance in the interest in nuclear power Global energy demand is set to grow Nuclear power expands supply options Environmental pressures are rising Nuclear power has low life-cycle GHG emissions Energy supply security back on the political agenda Nuclear power contributes to energy security Reliable base load electricity at predictable and affordable costs for meeting MDGs Nuclear power offers stable and predictable generating costs based on low resource costs Note: Nuclear power is not a quick-fix solution

38 Steps and time lines in nuclear power programmeimplementation Construction 4 10 years Costs Planning, infrastructure development, design, licensing 5 20 years Site preparation 3 5 years Operation years Time

39 Nuclear energy: One size does not fit all Countries differ with respect to Energy demand growth Alternatives Financing options Weighing risks and preferences o accident risks (nuclear, mining, oil spills, LNG ), cheap electricity, air pollution, jobs, import dependence, climate change o There is no technology without risks and interaction with the environment ( no-sliver bullet ) o Comparative assessment of all supply & demand side options Benefits > risks or risks > benefits (perceived or real) All countries use a mix -All are different Local conditions determine the optimal supply and technology mix Judge measures as to their climate effectiveness and consistency with your country s sustainable development objectives Nuclear power can be an integral part of many national or regional energy mixes on a sustainable basis

40 A long and bumpy road ahead.. urban consumer natural infrastructure power go plants wind geothermal development externality recycling government nuclear Sustainable energy innovation GHGs solution hydro grid large-scale efficiency solar fossil development decentralized market sources people environment electricity private sector storage pollution renewable hydrogen rural fracking stand alone water security policy water resources CCS drilling gas tariffs clean affordable biofuels carbon tax refining accessible trade PV coal oil price

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