6 th Asian Petrochemicals Markets Conference Shanghai, 19 April Tae-Yoon Kim
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1 6 th Asian Petrochemicals Markets Conference Shanghai, 19 April 2017 Tae-Yoon Kim
2 Renewables Renewables Mtoe A new fuel in pole position Change in total primary energy demand Nuclear Nuclear Coal Oil Gas Lowcarbon Coal Oil Gas Lowcarbon Low-carbon fuels & technologies, mostly renewables, supply nearly half of the increase in energy demand to 2040
3 No peak yet in sight, but a slowdown in growth for oil demand Change in oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario, mb/d Power generation Buildings Passenger cars Maritime Freight Aviation Petrochemicals (Feedstock) The global car fleet doubles, but efficiency gains, biofuels & electric cars reduce oil demand for passenger cars; growth elsewhere pushes total demand higher
4 Entering a period of greater oil market volatility Conventional crude oil resources subject to new project approvals Annual average (billion barrels) billion barrels required annually 18 billion barrels required annually 16 billion barrels need project approval each year in the central scenario? 1970s 1980s 1990s Without a pick-up in investment, or a rapid slowdown in demand growth, the stage is set for the next boom-and-bust cycle for oil
5 Outlook for tight oil in the United States US tight oil production as a function of estimated resources mb/d Resources (billion barrels): New Policies Scenario A significant amount of US tight oil production can come online in the near-term in response to price rises, but long-term outlook depends on resource availability
6 A wave of LNG spurs a second natural gas revolution Share of LNG in global long-distance gas trade bcm bcm bcm Pipeline LNG 26% Pipeline LNG 42% Pipeline LNG 53% Contractual terms and pricing arrangements are all being tested as new LNG from Australia, the US & others collides into an already well-supplied market
7 mb/d Outlook for NGL production Change in NGL production by region in the New Policies Scenario Others Africa ME US The Middle East reclaims its position as the leading source of production growth as US NGL production peaks around 2030
8 million t Petrochemicals production shifts to Asia Change in HVC* production by region in the New Policies Scenario Asia Middle East Latin America North America Others * ethylene, propylene and aromatics Thanks to its robust demand growth, Asia continues to play an important role in HVC production despite the challenges from cheap feedstocks
9 Still a long way from a pathway to energy sector decarbonisation Energy-sector CO 2 emissions Gt Early peak in emissions Net-zero by the end of the century Current pledges fall short of limiting the temperature increase to below 2 C; raising ambition to 1.5 C is uncharted territory
10 Petrochemicals, an exception in the 2 C Scenario mb/d 5 Change in oil demand by sector in the 2 C Scenario, Power generation Buildings Passenger cars Maritime Freight Aviation Petrochemicals (Feedstock) Stronger climate policies curb demand across sectors, but demand for petrochemicals remains stable; looming challenges for decarbonisation
11 Conclusions New oil market dynamics & subdued upstream investment are ushering in a period of greater market volatility A wave of LNG is the catalyst for a second natural gas revolution, with far-reaching implications for gas pricing & contracts The Asian petrochemical industry continues to play a critical role in meeting increasing demand for plastics Petrochemicals continue to drive the growth in global oil demand, facing challenging conditions to reduce emissions The Paris Agreement is a framework; its impact on energy depends on how its goals are translated into real policy actions
12 @IEABirol
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