Role of Nuclear Cogeneration in a Low Carbon Energy Future?

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1 Role of Nuclear Cogeneration in a Low Carbon Energy Future? Dr. Henri PAILLERE Senior Nuclear Analyst, Nuclear Development Division henri.paillere@oecd.org NC2I Conference, Brussels, September 2015

2 Nuclear Reactors: Generations I to IV New build (essentially after Fukushima Daiichi accident) Bulk of today s nuclear fleet But only a fraction of today s 438 reactors operate in cogeneration mode (essentially district heating) (estimated 1% of total nuclear heat used to produce non-electric applications) 2

3 Electricity Generation by Source (%), World and OECD Nuclear energy is: The largest source of low C electricity in OECD countries (18% > 13.4% hydro) The 2 nd largest at world level behind hydro (10.8% < 16.5% hydro) 2/3 world electricity still produced from fossil fuel! 3

4 But what about other sectors? industry (process heat & industrial processes (H2 production, synthetic fuel production, desalination ), buildings (district heating), transport sectors Can nuclear energy also make a difference? Nuclear energy = low carbon source of electricity AND heat 4

5 Why nuclear cogeneration? Minimize heat losses (2/3 heat wasted in current nuclear steam cycles) Improve energy (fuel) efficiencies Reduce CO 2 emissions Enhance security of energy supply (non-nuclear) CHP since long applied in many industrial sectors Potential in 4 areas: (i) desalination (ii) district heating in residential/commercial areas (iii) industrial process heat (iv) fuel synthesis (e.g. Hydrogen) 5

6 Application Level of maturity Possible new projects & recent activity District Heating Desalination High temperature process heat Hydrogen production Demonstrated at industrial scale & currently operating (Russia, Switzerland, ) Tested at industrial scale in the past (BN-350) Small small scale applications in NPPs to supply fresh water to plant Demonstrated at industrial scale for low temp. steam applications. R&D HTR and cogeneration Demonstrated at lab scale for thermochemical cycles (HTTR) and HTE Option for future new build in Finland or Poland, feasibility studies in France for coupling existing NPPs to DH systems Huge needs in the future (projects in the MENA region: Egypt, Saudi Arabia?) NHDD project in Korea clean steel NGNP Alliance & EU s NC2I collaboration Synthetic fuel production NHDD in Korea, on-going R&D (Gen IV) Challenges Differences between electricity & heat markets. Economic assessment. Complexity and scale of investments in water infrastructures. Public acceptance? Long term? Business model (nuclear operator industrial application operator) Licensing, safety, public acceptance, Long term Hydrogen economy? Competition with electric mobility? Nuclear hybrid energy system R&D on low carbon energy systems involving nuclear & variable renewables Assessment of services provided by nuclear (electricity, storage, heat) Economic assessment Long term prospects 6

7 7

8 Key technologies to reduce emissions in the power sector, from 6DS to 2DS: (from IEA ETP 2015) Basket of low C technologies (incl. CCS) + ability to perform electricity savings Cumulatively, nuclear ( wind) is the technology allowing most CO2 savings up to 2050 Example of policy measures: CO2 price to increase to 100 USD/t CO2 in 2030, 170 USD/t CO2 in

9 CO 2 is not the only problem! Air pollution (from particles from fossil fuel combustion) is a greater health problem WHO: 7 million deaths/year due to air pollution (from cooking stoves, transport, and fossil-fuelled power and industrial plants 9

10 Economics / Competition / Markets Nuclear since 2010, update of early roadmap Fukushima Daiichi accident (March 2011) Impact on energy policies & public acceptance Safety evaluations and upgrades Aftermath of financial crisis ( ) and economic crisis Uranium market depreciation Shale gas revolution in the US (and US coal prices ) Also affecting competitiveness of nuclear cogeneration vs. gas Cost overruns and delays in some FOAK Gen III projects Lower than anticipated costs for onshore wind and solar PV 10

11 Nuclear in the 2 C Scenario (2DS) (All capacities are gross capacities) 930 GW by 2050 (up from 390 GW today) 17% share electricity (up from 11% today) A formidable challenge (multiply current capacity by 2.3 in 35 years) investments, policies, construction, public acceptance Limited deployment of technologies of Gen IV technologies (FR, VHTR) and non-electric applications by 2050 (but demonstration is needed!) 11

12 IEA/NEA Nuclear Technology Roadmap on nuclear cogeneration 12

13 Conclusions (1) Over 750 reactor-years of non-electric applications of nuclear energy though not always in a commercial / liberalised market environment. Cogeneration: Can improve the overall efficiency of NPPs; Opens different streams of revenues to operators; Can contribute significantly to reduction CO2 emissions from nonpower sector Has a potential to play in future low C energy systems, where nuclear would provide electricity & storage through production of fuels Selling commercially both electricity and non-electric products remains a challenge. Some economic assessment tools exist but standardised methodologies for non-electric applications missing. Launch of an OECD/NEA Study in July 2015 (EC contribution would be welcome!) 13

14 Conclusions (2) Significant development of non-electric applications of nuclear energy are not expected in the short to mid-term, especially if/where fossil-based alternatives (gas) remain cheap. Carbon constraints / pricing is required But RD&D is needed to prepare long term deployment NEA launched the Nuclear Innovation 2050 initiative Work needed to provide information to general public and policy makers about nuclear cogeneration OECD/NEA is following with great interest the development of the NC2I in Europe, as well as other developments (N. America, Japan, Korea) 14

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