The Council Study. Sustainable Management and Development of the Mekong River Including Impacts of Mainstream Hydropower Projects

Transcription

1 The Council Study Sustainable Management and Development of the Mekong River Including Impacts of Mainstream Hydropower Projects Henry Manguerra, Ph.D., P.E. Study Coordinator, MRCS 4 th BDP Forum on the Mekong Basin Development Strategy 21 November 2014, Siem Reap, Cambodia

2 Study Objective #1 Further develop/establish a reliable scientific evidence of positive and negative environmental, social, and economic impacts of water resources developments

3 Study Objective #2 Integrate results into the MRC knowledge base to enhance the BDP process Inform Enhance Inform Perform Inform

4 Study Objective #3 Promote capacity and ensure technology transfer to Member Countries

5 Overall Assessment Framework

6 Why this Study is Important? All Development Thematic Areas Cumulative and Transboundary Impacts Opportunities for Strategic or Optimal Planned Developments Policy Recommendations for Impact Mitigation including Cost and Benefit Sharing Product and Process Improvement Oriented Capacity Building Sustainability and Scalability of Assessment Framework Integrated and Collaborative Working Relationships Between MCs and all Programs of MRC Secretariat

7 Reduction in Data/ Information/ Knowledge Gaps Council study is building on information, knowledge and assessments conducted by MRC BDP and other commissioned assessments such as the SEA of mainstream dams

8 Reduction in Data/ Information/ Knowledge Gaps Sediment and nutrient trapping - through MRC studies (IKMP, ISH), countries monitoring, WWF assessments, and others; Reduction of capture fisheries and social implications - through various studies and monitoring efforts (FP, World Fish, national fisheries departments, developers); Social and livelihood impacts - through studies, surveys and database efforts (EP, ISH, BDP, others) working with national agencies and statistical offices; Climate change risks and adaptation needs - through many assessments and studies (CCAI, FMMP, AIP, DMP) and many other regional and national entities

9 Reduction in Data/ Information/ Knowledge Gaps Gaps MRCS Programme and Council Study Relevant Activities/Studies Fisheries Literature review on (1) fish abundance and diversity and transboundary migration, (2) Irrawaddy dolphin, and (3) socio-economics and livelihoods (Completed) Report on current wild fisheries yield and fish migration (01/2015) Social ISH 11 Environmental and socio-economic baseline information for hydropower planning (12/2014) Social Impact Monitoring and Vulnerability Assessment (SIMVA) 2014 data collection (10/2014) Sediment Socio-economic impacts and social implications from reduced capture fisheries in LMB (Ongoing) Multi-Media (Water, Sediment and Biota) Monitoring and Assessment of Pollutants in the Mekong River Continuous enhancement of DSF Models for erosion and sediment transport (Ongoing) Mekong Delta Study (12/2015)

10 Reduction in Data/ Information/ Knowledge Gaps Gaps MRCS Programme and Council Study Relevant Activities/Studies Ecosystem Flood related impacts upstream of Kratie Floodplain management Climate Change Development of stressor-response curves to capture, quantify, and document relationships among hydrologic, hydraulic, water quality, and biological indicators (12/2015) DSF ISIS Model for Upstream of Kratie has been setup and calibrated including sediment transport Formulation of strategic directions to manage existing, future, and residual flood risk in LMB (12/2015) Basin-wide assessment of climate change impacts on ecosystem, food security, floods, droughts, and hydropower ( )

11 Continuous Update/Enrichment of Data MRC Programme Contributions to the Council Study Studies Date Thematic/ Discipline Areas 2011 Assessment of Basin-Wide Development Scenarios and Ongoing Review to be completed in 2014 Strategic Environmental Assessment of the Mekong Mainstream 04/2011 Hydropower, Irrigation, Flood Protection, Domestic and Industrial Water Use 10/2010 Hydropower Hydropower database update 06/2014 Hydropower Land Cover Mapping 06/2014 Agriculture Agricultural land use monitoring in LMB 10/2015 Agriculture Irrigation database update (Thailand, Laos, and Vietnam) 02/2015 Irrigation

12 Continuous Update/Enrichment of Data MRC Programme Contributions to the Council Study Studies Date Thematic/ Discipline Areas Agricultural groundwater use 06/2015 Agriculture, Irrigation Guidelines for the Planning, Design, Construction and Operation of Navigation Locks, in Relation to the Development of Hydropower Projects on the Lower Mekong Mainstream Carriage, Handling and Storage of Dangerous Goods along the Mekong River 2008 Navigation 04/2012 Navigation

13 Closing Gaps on Climate Change Climate change information, scenarios, uncertainties 2012, 2014 Roundtable discussions and study visits Assessment of impacts on flow regime 2014 Mekong climate change forum Assessment of changes in climate and hydrological extremes 2013 Capacity needs assessment Basin-wide assessments Ecosystem Food security Floods Droughts Hydropower Capacity building activities 2014 Policy review Literature review Country-run demonstration projects 2013 Compilation of experiences from other international river basins Report on status of CC and adaptation in the LMB Mekong Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan Database and monitoring system

14 Closing Knowledge Gaps on Stressor Response Relationships Hydrology Hydraulics Geomorphology/ Sedimentology Water Quality Vegetation Invertebrates Fish Frogs and Reptiles Birds Flow is the principle driver. Changes in volume and timing will affect the system Depths, velocities and areas inundated will change Channel shape and sediment will change Nutrient levels and organic content will be affected Amount and location of aquatic and riparian plants will change Communities change. Food species and pest species change in abundance Fisheries will change Non-fish fisheries will change Bird abundances will change Affects livelihoods & economies Overall changes in the nature and functioning of the river ecosystem

15 Developing Response Curves Flood season duration Dry season low flows Black fish that inhabit deep pools Extent of flooded forest Pool depth Extent of aquatic vegetation

16 Response Curves for the Universe of Key Indicators for LMB H1 G1 WQ1 V1 H2 H3 G2 WQ2 I1 H4 H5a H5b H6 H7 G3 WQ3 WQ4 V2 F1 H8 H9 H10 H11 H12 H13 H14 H15 G4 G5 G6 WQ5 WQ6 WQ7 WQ8 V3 V4 I2 F2 F3 H16 S1 P1 Hy1 Hy2 Hy3 Hy4 G7 G8 WQ9 WQ10 WQ11 V5 I3 F4 Hy5 G9 WQ12 V6

17 Knowledgebase for informed decision-making Planned Developments DSS - Database Assessed Impacts Hydrologic Assessment H1 H2 H3 H4 H5a H5b H6 H7 H8 H9 H10 H11 H12 H13 H14 H15 H16 S1 P1 Hy1 Hy2 Hy3 Hy4 Hy5 G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 WQ1 WQ2 WQ3 WQ4 WQ5 WQ6 WQ7 WQ8 WQ9 WQ10 WQ11 WQ12 V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 I1 I2 I3 F1 F2 F3 F4 Socio-Economic Assessment Climate Change Impacts Feedback Loop: Recommended Cumulative Developments to Enhance Positive Impacts and Minimize/Mitigate Negative Impacts

18 Decision Support System DSF-DSS Sectorial water/energy supply for scenarios Hydrological Model Macro-economic Model Water-resource options per scenario Water-Resource Model Hydrodynamics Model WQ Model Sediment Model WQ and sediment time-series data Hydraulic relationships Future flow regimes (daily or hourly) Present -day daily hydrology Macro-economic outcomes for scenarios Resource Economic Impacts Social Impacts DRIFT DSS SET-UP KNOWLEDGE CAPTURE ANALYSIS PROJECT DESCRIPTION SYSTEM DESCRIPTION SCENARIO SPECIFICATION INDICATOR SELECTION HYDROLOGY & HYDRAULICS WQ & SEDIMENTS CONNECTIVITY RESPONSE CURVES MODEL SCENARIO OUTCOMES WEIGHTS

19 Capacity Building Build Expert Local/Riparian Knowledge Build better and quantitative understanding of the stressor-response relationships in the basin at different levels/scales Indicator Level Ecosystem Level (e.g., Ecological Integrity) Site/reach Level Multiple Aggregated Spatial and Temporal Levels Annual Level Planning Horizon Level (e.g.: years)

20 Capacity Building Collaborative Basin Planning and Decision Making Mechanism for collaborative formulation of strategic/optimal development plans across different sectors Minimize or mitigate transboundary and cumulative negative impacts Enhance benefits Identify and recommend policy considerations for sustainable development

21 Capacity Building Towards the New Organizational Structure Coordination of Centralized (Secretariat) and Decentralized (National) River Basin Management Functions

22 Capacity Building Scalability Stressor-response knowledgebase can be incrementally developed based on availability of local data, better models, and local expertise Data Models Experts Knowledge Base Basin Planning

23 Capacity Building Sustainability In addition to supporting informed decision making, stressor-response knowledgebase can also serve as a training tool for new local experts Data Models Experts Knowledge Base Basin Planning Capacity Building New Experts

24 Marching Towards Next Stage of Implementation Startup Workshop/RTWG Meeting Completed Immediate Technical Milestones on the Critical Path National and Regional Stakeholder Consultations Engaging National Experts

25 Thank you