Natural Gas Market Update

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1 Natural Gas Market Update Bob Yu, Senior Analyst Quantitative Modeling September 2017 Restrictions on Use: You may use the prices, indexes, assessments and other related information (collectively, Data ) in this presentation only for your personal use. You may not publish, reproduce, distribute, retransmit, resell, create any derivative work from and/or otherwise provide access to Data or any portion thereof to any person (either within or outside your company including, but not limited to, via or as part of any internal electronic system or Internet site), firm or entity. Disclaimer: Platts, its affiliates and all of their third-party licensors disclaim any and all representations and warranties, express or implied, including, but not limited to, any warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use as to the data, or the results obtained by its use or as to the performance thereof. Limitation of Liability: In no event whatsoever shall Platts, its affiliates or their third-party licensors be liable for any indirect, special, incidental, punitive or consequential damages, including but not limited to loss of profits, trading losses, or lost time or goodwill, even if they have been advised of the possibility of such damages, whether in contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise. The Data is provided on an as is basis and your use of the Data is at your own risk. Copyright 2016 by Platts, McGraw Hill Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. No portion of this publication may be photocopied, reproduced, retransmitted, put into a computer system or otherwise redistributed without prior authorization from Platts. Platts is a trademark of McGraw Hill Financial. 1

2 Tcf Key Takeaways US natural gas production is gaining momentum. Power burn demand has remained strong, despite higher gas prices. Exports will significantly increase baseload demand US Natural Gas Storage Inventory 5 Year Range min Forecast 5 Year Average Source: EIA, SPGlobal 2

3 US Natural Gas Production 3

4 Bcf Production Rebounds From a Disappointing 2016 Daily US Natural Gas Production Production grew 3 Bcf/d From Jan 2017 to Sep Source: SPGlobal 4

5 MMcf/d Northeast, Texas Drive Growth 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, (200) (400) Change in Production, January - September Source: SPGlobal 5

6 U.S. Rigs - Off to the Races D-J 33/+20 ANADARKO 130/+66 24/+15 UTICA 21/ /+14 MARCELLUS DRY MARCELLUS WET PERMIAN 386/+241 Rig Increases Gas Focused Areas Rig Increases Liquids-Rich/Oil Focused Areas Rig Declines 81/+45 TX GULF EAGLE FORD HAYNESVILLE 46/+34 TOTAL 1018 CHANGE +550 Source: S&P Global, Platts Analytics, July 2017 Active rig count: July 7, 2017 / Change in rig count from July 1,

7 Inventory Bcf/d Rig Count Ample Rigs in Northeast to Sustain Current Production 2,000 1,500 1, Northeast Well Inventory Northeast Rig Count PA NE Dry PA Central Dry PA South Dry PA NE Dry PA Central Dry PA South Dry PA SW Wet Ohio Production PA SW Wet Ohio WV Dry WV Wet Source: Platts RigData, PA DEP, OH DNR 7

8 MMcf/d MMcf/d MMcf/d MMcf/d Wells in the Northeast Increasingly Prolific Utica Wet Utica Dry Months Months Marcellus Wet Marcellus Dry Months Months Source: Platts RigData 8

9 Bcf/d Northeast Expansion Projects horizontal rigs to meet forecast Base Capacity TCO Leach Xpress TETCO Adair/Access/Lebanon Other Projects Scheduled ISD ETP Rover Nexus Atlantic Sunrise NE Production Source: SPGlobal 9

10 % of Production IRR Liquids Plays Still Yielding Best Returns 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Oil% Gas% NGL% IRR July 2017 Price Assumptions: Gas=12 month forward average curve for each regional pricing point (range $ $3.11/Mcf) Oil=12 month forward average WTI +/- differential (range $ $46.03/barrel) NGLs=weighted average $/barrel, 12-mo forward average Mt. Belvieu prices (range $ $25.51/barrel) Source: SPGlobal 10

11 Bcf/d MMcf/d WTI Price ($/b) Horizontal Rigs MMcf/d Ramping up the Permian Permian Rigs vs. WTI Midland Basin Type Curves WTI Price Active Rigs Permian Projection Delaware Basin Type Curves Source: SPGlobal 11

12 Bcf Production Forecast Through Daily US Natural Gas Production Forecast 2018 Forecast Source: SPGlobal 12

13 US Domestic Demand 13

14 Power Burn, 2017-to-Date West Midcon East Private & Confidential 14 14

15 Bcf Bcf Bcf Power Burn, 2017-to-Date West Power Burn Demand East Power Burn Demand Year Range Year Average 5 Year Range Year Average Midcon Power Burn Demand 5 Year Range Year Average Source: SPGlobal 15

16 Unfavorable Weather for Burn Compared to 2016 Temperature Deviations from 2016 Northeast Southeast Midwest Texas Midcon Producing Rockies Southwest Northwest January (3.3) (1.6) (8.1) February (3.9) (6.9) March (7.5) (2.8) (5.6) 3.1 (1.7) (2.4) April (0.2) (0.6) (0.6) (6.7) May (0.1) 0.4 (1.9) (2.0) June 0.0 (2.8) (0.6) (0.8) (3.5) (1.7) (0.5) (0.8) July (1.8) (1.5) (0.7) (1.0) August (5.3) (2.2) (5.1) (0.9) (4.8) September (7.7) (6.9) (5.7) (3.9) (4.2) Source: Custom Weather 16

17 Power Burn, 2017-to-Date Source: SPGlobal 17

18 Bcf NE Power Burn Strong, Despite Higher Prices 3.5 Northeast Power Burn Deviations from Normal Vs. Dominion South Cash Price (0.5) (1.0) (1.5) $- $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $ (First Half) 2016 (Second Half) Interpolation Source: SPGlobal 18

19 Bcf/d Return to Normal Weather Means Significant Gains in Heating Demand US Residential and Commercial Demand 380 Bcf of additional demand compared to last winter if we experience a normal winter November December January February March Winter 2016/ Year Normal Polar Vortex (2013/2014) Source: SPGlobal 19

20 Exports 20

21 Bcf/d US LNG Utilization Has Been Very Strong 2.5 US LNG Exports vs Capacity Despite maintenance and hurricane disruptions, Sabine Trains 1-3 have still run at over 75% utilization rate Sabine Pass T1 Sabine Pass T2 Sabine Pass T3 LNG Exports Note: Capacities shown reflect each train s liquefaction capacity and full commercial ISD Source: SPGlobal 21

22 $/MMBtu Utilization High Despite Tight Margins $4.00 $3.00 US LNG Netbacks by Destination Margins soar during cold Asia winter, but fall as demand wanes $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 -$1.00 NBP West India DES JKM Note: Netbacks calculated as destination-market sales price, minus 115% of Henry Hub prompt-month contract, minus shipping cost. Assumes liquefaction tolling fee is sunk Source: SPGlobal 22

23 Bcf Mexico is Largest Importing County ) Mexico 24% of US LNG 2) Chile 9% of US LNG 3) S. Korea 8% of US LNG US LNG Exports by Country Argentina Brazil Chile China Dominica Egypt India Italy Japan Jordan Kuwait Lithuania Mexico Netherlands Pakistan Portugal Singapore South Korea Spain Taiwan Thailand Turkey United Arab Emirates United Kingdom Source: SPGlobal 23

24 But, Mexico Pipeline Grid Quickly Developing New Texas-to-Mexico Border Crossings Border Crossing Capacity MMcf/d City State In-Service Date West Texas Roadrunner Phase I 170 Clint Texas Mar-16 Roadrunner Phase II 400 Clint Texas Oct-16 Comanche Trail 1100 Clint Texas Jan-17 Trans-pecos Pipelnie 1400 Ojinaga Texas Apr-17 Roadrunner Phase III 70 Clint Texas Jun-19 Total 3140 South Texas NET Mexico/Los Ramones II 1100 Reynosa Texas Jun/Dec-16 Nueva Era Pipeline 600 Webb Texas Late-2017 Kinder Morgan Border 150 Hidalgo Texas Oct-17 Neuces-Brownsville 2600 Brownsville Texas Oct-18 Total 4450 Arizona Sierrita Gas Expansion 230 Sasabe Arizona Apr-20 Total new or expanded cross border pipes 8 Bcf/d of cross border capacity 8 new or expanded pipes in Mexico 6 Bcf/d of intra Mexico capacity $23 billion of investment in new pipeline infrastructure 24

25 Bcf/d US Pipeline Exports to Mexico Will Increase, Displacing LNG Imports Mexico Supply Stack Dry Production LNG Imports Texas Exports Southwest Exports Source: SPGlobal 25

26 Bcf/d US LNG Exports Ramping Up to Meet Capacity, But Underutilization Likely in Platts expects 12 Bcf/d of LNG Liquefaction Capacity to get built - LNG Feedgas could reach nearly 9 Bcf/d annually in US LNG Feedgas Capacity and Forecast Elba Island T7-10 Elba Island T1-6 Corpus Christi T2 Corpus Christi T1 Cove Point T1 Cameron LNG T3 Cameron LNG T2 Cameron LNG T1 Freeport LNG T3 Freeport LNG T2 Freeport LNG T1 Sabine Pass T5 Sabine Pass T4 Sabine Pass T3 Sabine Pass T2 Sabine Pass T1 LNG Feedgas Forecast

27 Natural Gas Price Outlook 27

28 Bcf/d Supply and Demand Balance Domestic Demand Exports Total Supply Source: SPGlobal 28

29 $/MMBtu Platts Above Market $4.50 $4.30 $4.10 $3.90 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $- Breakeven Gas Price by Play Market vs Platts Forecast $3.70 $3.50 $3.30 $3.10 $2.90 $2.70 $2.50 NYMEX (Sept. 8) Platts Henry Hub Spot Forecast August 2017 Source: SPGlobal, NYMEX 29

30 Key Takeaways Bullish Case Northeast and Permian production doesn t show up Bearish Case Pipeline buildout timely, producers meet targets Power burn demand destruction not enough at $3/mmBTU Renewable generation comes in higher than expected Exports continue to surge Weak global nat gas demand 30

31 Thank you! Platts Analytics Bob Yu, Senior Analyst 1800 Larimer Street in Denver, CO DISCLAIMER. THIS REPORT IS FURNISHED ON AN AS IS BASIS. BENTEK DOES NOT WARRANT THE ACCURACY OR CORRECTNESS OF THE REPORT OR THE INFORMATION CONTAINED THEREIN. BENTEK MAKES NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE USE OF ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT IN CONNECTION WITH TRADING OF COMMODITIES, EQUITIES, FUTURES, OPTIONS OR ANY OTHER USE. BENTEK MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES AND EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANT- ABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. RELEASE AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITY: IN NO EVENT SHALL BENTEK BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFIT) ARISING OUT OF OR RELATED TO THE ACCURACY OR CORRECTNESS OF THIS REPORT OR THE INFORMATION CONTAINED THEREIN,WHETHER BASED ON WARRANTY, CONTRACT, TORT OR ANY OTHER LEGAL THEORY.

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