SOLAR ENERGY Recent growth and future prospects South Africa s Electricity Supply Conference

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1 SOLAR ENERGY Recent growth and future prospects South Africa s Electricity Supply Conference Prof JL (Wikus) van Niekerk Rosebank Hyatt 15 August

2 The Centre for Renewable and Sustainable Energy Studies was established in 2007 to facilitate and stimulate activities in renewable energy study and research at Stellenbosch University. The Department of Science and Technology has been funding the Renewable and Sustainable Energy (RSE) Hub at Stellenbosch University since its establishment in August The aims of the RSE Hub are to develop human capital, deepen knowledge, and stimulate innovation and enterprise in the field of RSE. Currently the DST is still sponsoring the work of the Centre with an annual grant administrated by the National Research Foundation. Stellenbosch University was designated as the Specialisation Centre in Renewable Energy Technology as part of the Eskom Power Plant Engineering Institute (EPPEI). The research and teaching activities sponsored by Eskom focus on concentrating solar power (CSP) and wind energy and also includes the Eskom Chair in Concentrating Solar Power. The Sasol Technology group sponsored the new facilities for the Centre for Renewable and Sustainable Energy Studies as well as the work and facilities of the Solar Thermal Energy Research Group at Stellenbosch University.

3 Outline Solar Energy Resources in South Africa Recent Solar IPP Projects Photovoltaic Systems (PV) Basic technology Current and future cost Value proposition Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Basic technology Current and future cost Value proposition Some Conclusions

4 World Solar Resource (DNI)

5 South Africa Direct Normal Irradiance DNI: Direct Normal Irradiance used for CSP and CPV resource assessments Spain USA South Africa

6 South Africa Global HorisontalIrradiance GHI: Global Horisontal Irradiance used for PV and SWH resource assessments

7 IPP PV Projects (Rounds 1 & 2) Round 1 Round MW MW MW

8 IPP CSP Projects (Rounds 1 & 2) Round 1 Round MW 50 MW 200 MW

9 SA Solar Park (DoE) Background: Project initiated by the CCI (Clinton Climate Initiative) and the Department of Energy High level pre-feasibility study done in 2010 Launched in Upington, 28&29 October 2010 by Minister of Energy Stellenbosch University and GeoModel Solar did an update on the solar resource for the Upington site Issues: Land earmarked for 5 GW Solar Park belongs to the Municipality and not the provincial or national government Notpossible to evacuate 5 GW of electricity from Upington, perhaps 200 MW now, 1 GW after transmission line upgrade One 5 GW Solar Park or rather five 1 GW parks in a Solar Corridor? Prieska identified as alternative site Latest news: Feasibility study for Prieska SP awarded to Aurecon, E&Y, and 3E Feasibility study for Upington SP out on tender

10 PV Basic Technology Well established and proven technology Performance guarantees up to 20 years Declining prices

11 PV Current and Future Cost

12 PV Current and Future Cost

13 PV Value Proposition LCOE less than the retail cost of electricity sold by most municsand approaching that of ESKOM Reduce transmissions losses not only from Mpumalanga to the Cape, but also within metros Local content can easily be increased by the manufacture of PV modules, inverters, cables, transformers, etc in SA Ideal for large consumers with roof-space that use most of their electricity in the day Small scale PV installations with smart grids and net-metering natural progression to modern grid

14 CSP Basic Technology Old technology that is still developing SEGS plants more than 30 years old, still operating CSP plants with storage proved dispatchabilityand even 24h operation Grid interface Storage Boiler Parabolic trough collector Steam turbine Condenser Generator Dry/wet cooling

15 Gemasolar, Spain (24/7 Solar Electricity)

16 CSP Current and Future Cost Rounds 1 & 2: R 2.68/kWh & R 2.51/kWh Round 3: R 1.65/kWh but R 4.45/kWh for peak period 16h30-21h30 USA SunShot Programme target: $0.06/kWh

17 CSP Value Proposition Only renewable energy technology with a proven, affordable energy storage solution (except of course hydro pump storage) LCOE already less than half that of peaking OCGT plants Renewable energy technology with the largest potential to establish a significant manufacturing industry in SA, also for the export market

18 A Symphony of Renewables

19 Conclusions Solar electricity, both PV and CSP, are already or will in the near future be cost competitive with midmerit/peaking or base load power plants Potential to localise the manufacture of PV and CSP components is must greater than for many other technologies, but it will need a guaranteed future market in SA of sufficient size Solar electricity, PV and CSP, complements each other in areas of high solar irradiance Distributed electricity generation has many advantages and both CSP and PV lend themselves to this

20 Acknowledgements Industry associations: SAPVIA SASTELA Reports by: NREL Frost & Sullivan Black & Veatch

Prof Wikus van Niekerk Director of CRSES Prof Frank Dinter Eskom Chair in CSP Stellenbosch University

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