China's Green Growth Strategy: Industry Policy or Green Environment Policy?
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1 China's Green Growth Strategy: Industry Policy or Green Environment Policy? Conférence internationale Débattre de l innovation responsable dans les énergies renouvelables et l architecture» 16 novembre 2012 Observatoire pour l innovation responsable MINES ParisTech Wolfgang Mostert 09.11
2 Innovation Drive in Climate Change Mitigation Technology
3 Everything is big and fast in China Installed power capacity in 1949: 2 GW, in 2008: 800 GW Adding 100 GW per year equal to total installed capacity in France 18 GW three gorges dam led to 1.1 million people being moved PV project in Inner Mongolia could reach 2GW by 2020 Goal (12 th Five-Year plan) of cubic meters of shale gas production by 2020 BYD (Build Your Dreams) battery company and State Grid Corporation of China build the world s largest battery energy storage station: a utility-scale project in Hebei Province to store wind and solar power
4 Pilot Emission trading programs Emissions trading in seven manufacturing regions next year, may introduce a national system by These pilots are expected to cover 700 million tons of CO2 emissions by 2014, compared with 382 million tons in Australia, 165 million tons in California and 2.1 billion tons in Europe Part of government s efforts to cut emissions per unit of economic output 45 percent by 2020 compared with 2005 levels; and reduce the carbon intensity by as much as 17 percent in its five-year plan through 2015.
5 Universities By 2030, China is expected to have up to 200 million college graduates, more than the entire workforce of the United States. University-level education is improving China now has 11 universities in the topranked 200 universities of the world
6 Drivers for Innovation Policy Productivity gains from structural changes and technological catch-up will be largely exhausted within a decade Thereafter growth rates in the 6 7 percent range will be increasingly tied to productivity gains stemming from innovativeness in its several forms. 1. Encouraging innovation and adopting an open innovation system with links to global research and development networks. 2. Looking to green development as a significant new growth opportunity.
7 Switching from Raising Capital-Labour Ratio to Total Factor Productivity
8 12th FYP s seven strategic industries 1. environmental protection & energy efficiency 2. new energy 3. clean-energy vehicles 4. next generation information technology 5. biotechnology 6. high-end manufacturing 7. high-tech materials
9 Projected Clean Energy Exports 2030: US$ billion
10 Expected Investments in RE-Plant Power Capacity and in Environment If the State Council targets are met, the contribution of emerging green industries to China s GDP will be 15% by 2020 The environmental protection industry expected to grow to RMB 2 trillion by 2015 (US$295 billion) 20 GW per year of wind energy: USD25 billion 10 GW per year of solar PV: USD25 billion
11 Development of Wind Turbine Manufacturing Technology Until year 2000, imported WTG dominated the domestic market, more than 95% of market share End of 2003 installed capacity of 0.6 GW, domestic WTG manufacturers 15% share, and 33% of new capacity installed during 2003 Lack of local capability to develop WTG designs with proper independent intellectual property rights
12 Transfer of technology to component manufacturers 70 % domestic content requirement for windfarm parks in China to force local component manufacturing Blade manufacturers Gear-box manufacturers Generator manufacturers Tower manufacturers Electrical control equipment manufacturers
13 Transfer of technology to WTG Manufacturers Joint ventures in 1998: MADE/Gamesa from Spain Nordex from Germany Production licenses in 2004 German Repower on 1.5 MW WTG German Fuhrlaender on 1.5 MW WTG development contracts with foreign design bureaus Takeover of foreign WTG manufacturers Tenders for R&D support to development contract
14 China is catching on fast in patent protection
15 2006 Renewable Energy Law, 2020 goal 30% RE share (including conventional hydropower) in power supply 100 GW RE MW from small scale hydropower (<20 MW) 30 GW wind 3 GW solar (expected to be concentrated solar with PV for isolated power use) 1 GW biomass-based power Small contributions from geothermal, wave power
16 Fast upward moving Goal Targets for RE Penetration Wind Goal for wind power capacity to hit 100 GW by 2015 Global wind power saw additional capacity of 40.5 GW in 2011 with EU = 9.4 GW, China 17 GW (In 2012 China has 20 wind turbine manufacturers ) Solar PV Installed solar PV capacity end of 2010 less than 1 GW China doubled its 2015 solar power goal to 10 GW after the Japanese nuclear power accident Late 2011 goal for solar PV capacity to reach 15 gigawatts by 2015, early 2012 increased to 21 GW
17 Introduction of Feed-in-Tariff Wind FiT in 2011: RMB NDRC opinion in May 2011: a FiT for solar PV would be introduced only when solar photovoltaic (PV) costs reached the level of wind But pressure from local governments, PV manufacturers and developers, combined with declining European demand for Chinese-made panels, motivated NDRC to introduce a solar PV-FiT of RMB 1/kWh (12 eurocents) in August 2011
18 Level of PV subsidies The average cost of electricity from solar panels in China in 2012 is 19 UScents per kilowatt-hour. The FiT subsidies (compared to cost of coal fired) are $50 billion over 20 years for every 10 gigawatts of solar power installed China s solar panel makers are mostly privately controlled but often local governments hold a minority stake in the company: Wuxi government is Suntech s largest investor, Xinyu government is LDK s biggest investor. State-owned banks financed solar PV-factories with approximately $18 billion in low-rate loans Municipal and provincial governments provided loan guarantees and sold solar PV-manufacturers valuable land at deeply discounted prices
19 Solar PV Industry, 2011 Supply Chain companies producing crystal silicon, more than 60 companies producing silicon panels, more than 60 companies making solar-powered batteries, more than 330 companies producing components for solar technologies. 14 Chinese companies listed on foreign stock exchanges, 15 companies listed on domestic stock exchanges. Economic importance The industry s annual production value exceeds US$45 billion, It employs around 300,000 people
20 Overcapacity on world PV-market China represents more than two-thirds of the world s PV capacity Chinese companies ability to manufacture 50 GW of solar panels in 2012 The Chinese domestic market targeted to absorb 4 to 5 GW Exports will take 18 to 19 GW Much of the demand in China as failed to materialise as grid constraints slow the growth of new solar projects; installations through mid-october are just 1-2GW. China s developers often delay or miss payments to local panel companies, making domestic sales far less profitable than overseas sales. China s solar panel makers are suffering losses of up to $1 for every $3 of sales this year, as panel prices have fallen by three-fourths since 2008 Suntech, the world s biggest solar panel manufacturer, has cut 40 per cent of its solar panel production, seen its share price drop 60 per cent this year, and received a delisting warning from the New York Stock Exchange.
21 Impact of China on world PV-market A dozen solar companies in the USA and another dozen in Europe have gone bankrupt or closed factories since the start of 2011 done little to ease the global glut and price war In five years, the combined market capitalisation of the biggest clean energy groups in OECD countries has shrunk by about nine-tenths. And that includes survivor bias, since many companies have already died.
22 Anti-dumping cases October 2012 the US Department of Commerce ruling in the anti-dumping and countervailing duties case against Chinese solar PV cell producers, imposing tariffs of 31% and more on PV cells imported into the US and countervailing duties to match subsidies of 15%. The US International Trade Commission (ITC) has given its final approval to penalties on Chinese solar imports.
23 China fighting back in solar trade war filing a complaint about the EU s solar subsidies to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and launching an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation on the EU s exports of solar polysilicon.
24 Afternote: India moves as well In 2011 for the first time, India invested more in clean energy than the UK, while China is second only to the US.
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