VDMA AG BZ - MV 2017 Hanau. Our membership: 107 companies/associations from 16 countries

Transcription

1 VDMA AG BZ - MV 2017 Hanau Our membership: 107 companies/associations from 16 countries

2 A strong European public-private partnership with a focused objective Fuel Cells & Hydrogen Joint Undertaking A portfolio of Industry Grouping National Associations 107 members European Union represented by the European Commission Research Grouping N.ERGHY 64 members clean, efficient and competitive solutions based on fuel cells and hydrogen technologies in energy and transport The Joint Undertaking is managed by a Governing Board composed of representatives of all three partners and lead by the Industry. POLITICAL TARGETS (So far: Focus on E-Grid only)

3 To limit climate change to well below 2 o C by 2100 the energy sector needs to be decarbonized Current efforts are not enough Temperature increase by 2100 due to global energy related GHG emissions, in Gt CO2e/year o C Current policies lead to 44 Gt CO 2 e/year o C INDCs 3 / New policies decrease emissions to 37 Gt CO 2 e/year o C Emission reductions limit emissions to 19 Gt CO 2 e/year o C Significant emission reductions yield zero CO 2 emissions 2 Temperature increase 1 The GHG emissions in 2013 were 34 Gt CO 2 e/year 2 The GHG emissions forecasted for 2040 within the specified scenario 3 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions. The climate actions communicated in these INDCs help estimate whether the world achieves the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement Source: IEA (2014), CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion; IEA (2015) World Energy Outlook; IEA (2015) World Energy Outlook Special Report on Energy and Climate Change, IEA ETP 2016, ECCE Simultaneously, local air quality of cities to be improved urgently Population living at different levels of pollution X% Percent of urban population Asia Africa Europe 1 million people North America South America Oceania 1% 26% 51% 17% 3% 1% This entire fraction is the population of Delhi Under WHO guidelines (10ug/m3) Between 1x and 2x Between 5x Between 10x Between 15x 2x 5x 10x 15x Over 15x More than 99% of global population living areas where air pollution is above current WHO guideline NOTE: Africa is underrepresented since only 8 African cities reported emissions in 2014 (population of 42M) Source: World Bank, 2014, WHO

4 Four major levers are needed to enable the energy transition Final energy consumption 1, 2013 and 2050, in EJ 640 Energy demand w/o efficiency improvements 2 1. Increasing energy efficiency limits the rise of energy consumption Carbon capture and storage (CCS) or utilization (CCU) CCS/U decarbonizes the use of fossil fuels Fossil fuels 3. Switch to zero emission energy carriers, e.g., electricity or hydrogen Power sector Fossil fuels 4 Power sector Renewables Biomass and waste 4. Renewables replace fossil fuels Final energy consumption within the 2 o C scenario of the IEA 2 Increase of energy demand is determined via the relative increase of CO2 emissions w/o energy efficiencies 3 The fossil fuels amount processed using CCS/U was determined to be 25% of the total amount of fossil fuels by relating the CO2 emission reduction compared for the 2DS and 6DS scenario 4 The fossil fuel power sector also includes nuclear energy Source: IEA ETP For these actions to be implemented a number of barriers must be overcome Increasing renewables share leading to imbalances of power supply & demand Infrastructure needs to go through a major transformation Global buffering capacity from today based on mostly fossil sources to be converted Some energy uses are hard to electrify via the grid or with batteries: Transport, Industry, Residential heating To decarbonize end-use sectors in industry, carbon derivatives must be decarbonized Source: Hydrogen Council 7

5 HYDROGEN&FUEL CELLS: STORAGE&BUFFER PROVIDE SEASONAL STORAGE AND IMPROVE SYSTEM EFFICIENCY 1. Hydrogen for long-term carbon-free energy storage Technology overview of carbon-free energy storage technologies 10 GW 1 GW 100 MW Pumped Hydro Storage Compressed air Geographical capacity constraints Hydrogen storage 1 10 MW 1 MW 100 kw 10 kw 1 kw Fly-wheel Super capacitor Battery Minute Hour Day Week Season Discharge duration 1 IEA data updated due to recent developments in building numerous 1MW hydrogen storage tanks Source: IEA Energy Technology Roadmap Hydrogen and Fuel Cells, JRC Scientific and Policy Report

6 PROVIDE SEASONAL STORAGE AND IMPROVE SYSTEM EFFICIENCY 1. Hydrogen enables seasonal storage avoiding massive curtailment Simulation for Germany 2050, in GW RES production Load Curtailed periods of oversupply H 2 Periods of deficits Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Load demand in winter is higher while RES production is lower Source: EC 2050 scenario, McKinsey analysis 10 HYDROGEN PRODUCTION, STORAGE, DISTRIBUTION AND BUFFER 1-3. Hydrogen is a carbon neutral energy carrier which is easily stored and distributed Energy vectors Hydrogen A Hydrogen production is carbon neutral and provides seasonal storage B High energy density supports efficient energy distribution across sectors and regions D Hydrogen to be used as a versatile energy carrier in various end uses C Hydrogen storage acts as an energy buffer to increase system resilience Source: Hydrogen Council 11

7 HYDROGEN IN MOBILITY DECARBONIZE TRANSPORT 4. FCEVs will emerge in all transport segments to enable the energy transition Projected economic attractiveness Weight Tons 10,000+ Bubble size representing the relative annual energy consumption of this vehicle type in 2013 BEV FCEV Bio- and (H 2 -based) synthetic fuels 1, Small cars/urban mobility 2 Light commercial vehicles 1 1 Medium to large cars², fleets and taxis Source: Toyota, Hyundai, Daimler 100 1,000+ Average mileage per day/trip Km 1 Battery-hydrogen hybrid to ensure sufficient power 2 Split in A- and B-segment LDVs (small cars) and C+-segment LDVs (medium to large cars) based on a 30% market share of A/B-segment cars and a 50% less energy demand 13

8 DECARBONIZE TRANSPORT 4 Leading manufacturers already offer commercially available FCEVs, many more to come Mass Production Several launches of FVEC/FCHV announced e.g. Audi, Mercedes, Chevrolet, Lexus, Kia, Number of FCEVs are expected to increase significantly from, e.g., 350k in Asia 1 in 2025 to 2.5m in Hyundai Tucson, Toyota Mirai and Honda Clarity launched Start commercialization Honda FCX Clarity and Toyota FCHV became the first publicly available FCEVs ever produced 2008 Mercedes B-Class is launched FCEV forecasts of Asia include the governmental FCEV roadmap outlooks of China, Japan and South-Korea Source: Press research 14 ENERGY, INDUSTRY&BUILDINGS

9 DECARBONIZE INDUSTRY ENERGY USE 5. Using hydrogen in fuel cells and burners can enable decarbonization in low- and high-grade heating in industrial processes Carbon neutral heating processes H 2 +CCS/U > ~300 o C High-grade heat Expected to consume 30 EJ in 2050 Hydrogen burners can complement electric heating + many others H o C Low-grade heat Expected to consume 124 EJ in 2050 Hydrogen is especially advantageous when available as by-product by-product d H 2 1 Expected energy usage of the specified heating process in 2050 Source: Hydrogen Council 16 SERVE AS FEEDSTOCK USING CAPTURED CARBON 6. Hydrogen complements chemical feedstock to decarbonize industry Conventional feedstock (oil derivatives) Carbon Hydrogen A Hard to decarbonize industry applying carbon capture Carbonhydrates A Hydrogen is produced carbon-free (e.g., via RES electrolysis C Carbon capture of the end of lifecycle Carbon e.g. carbon2chem project planned by ThyssenKrupp Source: Hydrogen Council B Production of Methanol (as used for plastics), Ammonia 17

10 HELP DECARBONIZE BUILDING HEATING 7. Building heating can use hydrogen in combination with fuel cells as a fuel or leverage hydrogen technologies Hydrogen is part of a portfolio of solutions for decarbonizing building heating (choice depending on local conditions) Hydrogen through the gas grid 1 can fuel heating technology Leeds planning to convert natural gas grid in hydrogen grid by 2026 Plan to ban oil and natural gas for heating purposes in Germany by 2030 Already 190,000 buildings are heated with hydrogen-based fuel cell micro CHPs Hydrogen technologies can serve as energy converter Japan is expanding to 5.3 million micro CHP-based households by pure or blended to the gas grid Source: Hydrogen Council 18 RAMPING UP, LEGAL BARRIERS

11 FCH technology is ramping up, both in technology improvements Selected examples of the hydrogen and FC sector ,400k 5k 190k No. of installed systems <50 No. of public HRS No. of models mchps Hydrogen refueling stations Fuel cell passenger vehicles H 2 cost in EUR/kg Global capacity in MW Cost in $/kw Zero-carbon production (electrolysis example) H 2 storage Fuel Cells 1 Extrapolating the growth to 20 MW in 2017/2018 from outstanding projects, 2 Assuming 20k units production per year, 3 Assuming 100k units production per year in 2025 Source: IEA, E4Tech, US DOE, Press research 20 as well as in market deployment Selected examples of the hydrogen and FC sector 1,400k k 5k <50 No. of installed systems No. of public HRS 1 4 No. of models mchps Hydrogen refueling stations Fuel cell passenger vehicles H 2 cost in EUR/kg Global capacity in MW Cost in $/kw Zero-carbon production (electrolysis example) H 2 storage Fuel Cells 1 Extrapolating the growth to 20 MW in 2017/2018 from outstanding projects, 2 Assuming 20k units production per year, 3 Assuming 100k units production per year in 2025 Source: IEA, E4Tech, US DOE, Press research 21

12 However, barriers need to be removed to fully unlock the potential of hydrogen Mobility applications require a coordinated effort across industries Many hydrogen and FC investments require a long horizon of 10 to 20 years Competing technologies have benefitted from clear regulatory guidelines on financial stimuli Industry standards are needed to drive economies of scale Potential of hydrogen and FC as enabler for the energy transition fully unlocked and selfsustainable industry created Source: Hydrogen Council 22 COLLABORATIVE APPROACH

13 A collaborative approach of policy makers and industry is needed today to enable the full potential of hydrogen in the energy transition Provide long-term and stable policy frameworks to guide the energy transition in all sectors Develop hydrogen-specific coordination and incentive policies to encourage early deployment of hydrogen solutions and sufficient private-sector investments. Facilitate harmonization of industrial standards across regions and sectors to enable hydrogen technologies and take advantage of scale effects and decrease costs. Source: Hydrogen Council 24 H2 Mobility in Germany demonstrates how a collaborative approach of policy makers and industry pave the way for a hydrogen infrastructure Staged expansion of hydrogen refueling stations in Germany H 2 mobility is a cross-sector joint venture of industrial and automotive market leaders European and German governmental institutions collaborate with H 2 mobility to coordinate and fund the expansion Minimizing financial risk is accomplished by a phased roll out of the infrastructure 1 Germany is expanding to 400 hydrogen refueling stations by 2023 Already over 30 HRS are built in Germany and are starting to attract FCEVs 1 The first 100 HRS built in Germany are independent of the amount of FCEVs. The second phase with 300 HRS is dependent on the FCEV market growth in Germany SOURCE: H2 mobility website 25

14 TAKE AWAYS: DO NOT MISS THE NEXT TRAIN! Some take aways from advocacy at EU level Many studies too old! Advocacy so far focused on FC with H2 only! Find allies at the Gas Industry! Become active in the debate about Sector Couplingf! Make use of the seasonal gap issue! CCU and CO2 Management is a major issue! Discuss about the value chain of FCEV vs. BEV! Fuel Cells decide about EU Competitiveness! COP23 is a huge opportunity for the FCH sector!

15 HYCOP - FCH Ecosystem at Cologne/Bonn Airport Airport Cologne/Bonn and DLR as a Showroom for FCH Technologies

16 Many thanks for your attention!