CLIMATE CHANGE UNCERTAINTY IS NOT A PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT TO STREAM CONSERVATION

Transcription

1 1 CLIMATE CHANGE UNCERTAINTY IS NOT A PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT TO STREAM CONSERVATION Evan Grant USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center SO Conte Anadromous Fish Research Lab NECSC 17 May 2017 Rachel Katz, Allison Roy, Ben Letcher, Mike Runge

2 Headwater streams require landscape-scale conservation! Climate and land use changes affect stream ecosystems! Species and threats occur across management boundaries! Agencies have differing goals, tools, and knowledge across the landscape NECSC-supported Research:! Apply decision theory to collaborative management! Identify collaborative landscape-scale conservation management opportunities

3 major challenges/impediments building predictive models uncertainty (alt. hypotheses) iterative & linked decisions habitat? change e.g., stream temperature e.g., propagation programs prioritization and resource allocation (combinations) barriers propagation habitat multiple objectives (value tradeoffs)? ecological-mgmt mismatch protected protected

4 Collabora'ons*can*overcome*these*problems?* 3>*Use*a*ra'onal*approach* modified from Keeney

5 5 case study: brook trout and spring salamanders change in occupancy Hudy et al future climate niche Sutton et al suitable unsuitable from historic: 1-50% 50-90% % unknown extirpated (0%) " Large & overlapping ranges with declines expected across NE " Less scientific information about spring salamanders " Conservation objective: maximize stream km occupied

6 6 Deerfield and Merrimack Workshops (northeast US) " Goals: " Conservation of brook trout and spring salamanders while maintaining non-conservation values (water use, recreation, and development) " Understand major impediments to landscape conservation Deerfield watershed (MA & VT) Merrimack watershed (NH & MA) federal, state (2) and local government, regional & local NGOs

7 7 1) diverse values of headwater stream (<3 rd order) ecosystems ecological ecosystem services recreation land development

8 8 2) values tradeoffs among and within organizations " relative importance of different objectives " examples: " spring salamanders " brook trout what? " water quality " water quantity " flood control Forest Service " angling recreation " skiing recreation " land development " agriculture development where? " not explicit in policy (interpret individually) how much? Salamanders Unlimited

9 9 3) ecological-management mismatches: jurisdiction management area/jurisdiction matches ecological values Merrimack watershed (HUC4) managed lands Species occupancy high, medium, low management area/jurisdiction does NOT match ecological values

10 10 4) ecological-management mismatches: tools authority, actions, tools " stream habitat and connectivity " land protection " land management " education and outreach " recreational activities " regulation and policy HAVE TOOLS NEED TOOLS

11 11 Climate uncertainty not important, yet " Build trust " Jointly explore the collaborative opportunities " Use SDM to design collaborative interventions " Relative to a (collaborative) decision: " Value of information " Ecological " Social " Climate

12 predict consequences of management under several flavors of uncertainty catchment-level covariates in each watershed identify potential mgmt actions (e.g., combinations of land acquisition and culvert replacement) identify alternative hypotheses 3 climate scenarios 0+C 2+C 4+C (e.g., predicted stream temps; Hocking & Letcher)

13 optimal actions can vary with species & climate scenario 0+C 2+C 4+C 0+C 2+C 4+C score (occupancy) score (occupancy) Brook trout: decision is the same under each climate scenario Spring salamander: decision changes under each climate scenario Which species/outcomes do you value more?

14 14 Landscape-scale decision making Identify landscapelevel problems that can t be solved individually Engage key decision makers; assess socialecological mismatch. Establish network governance, create opportunity for negotiation Assess, learn, revise Identify landscapelevel objectives, consider multiple scales, refine problem Identify actions, develop new collaborative options, challenge constraints. Predict outcomes under all actions, identify and include uncertainties, ID science needs Evaluate trade-offs, identify conflicting objectives, unacceptable losses Implement actions