Providing Real-Time Runoff Risk Guidance for Nutrient Applications

Transcription

1 Providing Real-Time Runoff Risk Guidance for Nutrient Applications Dustin Goering Healthy Soils for Healthy Waters Workshop September 15, 2014

2 Overview 1.? 2. Why Runoff Risk? 3. Wisconsin s Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast (RRAF) 4. Expanding Runoff Risk 5. Next steps and long-term strategy 6. Summary

3 NWS :: River Forecast Centers 13 RFCs Emphasis on river stage and flow forecasts NWS Strategic Plan :: Weather Ready Nation Leverage existing capabilities towards water quality & Decision Support 1. NWS and NCRFC

4 Why Develop Runoff Risk Guidance? Assist farmers with short-term application timing decisions Lack of dynamic, real-time guidance for when to apply & not apply RFC modeling incorporates soil-atmosphere system into the future Most BMPs cover how & where, when is plant-need centric Reduce applications before runoff Potentially reduce nutrient loss 2. History and Development

5 Why Develop Runoff Risk Guidance? Assist farmers with short-term application timing decisions Lack of dynamic, real-time guidance for when to apply & not apply RFC modeling incorporates soil-atmosphere system into the future Most BMPs cover how & where, when is plant-need centric Reduce applications before runoff Potentially reduce nutrient loss WI Legislature directs implementation of advisory system Dept of Agriculture, Trade, & Consumer Protection (DATCP) Successive, publicized fish kills & well contamination in mid-2000s 2008: RRAF Working Group forms to evaluate leveraging NCRFC capabilities Proven success of multi-agency collaborative effort Federal, state, academia, and industry partners involved 2. History and Development

6 Wisconsin s Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast Challenges: 1 st generation tool constrained to current models Scale difference was obvious concern 3. Wisconsin RRAF

7 Wisconsin s Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast Challenges: 1 st generation tool constrained to current models Scale difference was obvious concern RRAF compares runoff to each basin s historical behavior Validated against observed EOF runoff Not modeling water quality or nutrient transport Risk thresholds focus users on most significant events 3. Wisconsin RRAF

8 Wisconsin s Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast Challenges: 1 st generation tool constrained to current models Scale difference was obvious concern RRAF compares runoff to each basin s historical behavior Validated against observed EOF runoff Not modeling water quality or nutrient transport Risk thresholds focus users on most significant events Important to relay assumptions & limitations to users Many factors incorporated into RRAF, but shouldn t be only info used Just because high risk doesn t mean you can t apply Models aren t perfect, this is Not meant to be a regulatory tool 3. Wisconsin RRAF

9 Wisconsin s Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast Issued 3 times per day Includes forecast precip (5-days) and temperature (10-days) DATCP built, owns, and maintains the website They are the public face of the RRAF Normal Mode Winter Spring Mode 3. Wisconsin RRAF

10 Expanding to New Areas Positive feedback & requests from user community & agencies GLRI Priority Watershed Working Group funding expansion Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota Goal :: produce consistent runoff risk product for the region Same model and process to generate risk guidance States able to tailor the output for their needs 4. Expansion

11 Expansion Use New Model Use newest NWS hydrologic model (SAC-HTET) Transition to 4km x 4km gridded model on 1-hr time-step Requires new model setup & testing Requesting EOF runoff datasets ( ) for analysis EOF Sites Red is grid cell Green basins are the current RRAF lumped basins 4. Expansion

12 Future Steps & Possibilities Setup Working Groups in Ohio & Michigan State agencies, universities, ag-community Initiate outreach once model is available Incorporate into NMP / BMP training? Can we quantify an impact on water quality with the tool? Small-scale paired watershed studies? Positive results could justify expanding & refining the tool 5. Next Steps

13 Summary Runoff Risk fills void in real-time DSS for application timing Replicate history of successful collaboration in new states Setup and test new model approach (finer resolution) Initiate outreach and incorporate into training & use Open to opportunities that can help quantify impact on water quality 6. Summary

14 More Information Wisconsin RRAF Google Wisconsin RRAF Background Information NOAA Tech Report NWS 55 Further Questions & Comments Dustin Goering