ICEM and MRC - SEA of hydropower on mainstream Mekong River 1

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1 1 1. PURPOSE OF THE SEA 2. WHAT IS AN SEA? 3. SEA SYSTEMS IN THE REGION 4. THE PLAN THE SEA IS ASSESSING 5. THE SEA APPROACH 6. INITIAL REVIEW OF KEY ISSUES Jeremy Carew-Reid, Team Leader MRC SEA of hydropower on mainstream Mekong

2 2 Aims of the SEA SEA purpose, objectives and outputs

3 Purpose of the SEA 3 Identify the potential opportunities and risks as well as contribution of hydropower to regional development by assessing: mainstream Mekong hydropower development strategies, the regional distribution of costs and benefits with respect to economic development, social equity and environmental protection.

4 Objectives of the SEA 4 Hydropower focus: 1. Provide an understanding of the implications of mainstream hydropower development 2. Provide specific policy-level recommendations to support decisions on whether and how those hydropower projects should best be pursued; 3. Provide an initial baseline and assessment framework for individual mainstream project EIAs, thereby supporting the Procedures for Notification, Prior Consultation and Agreement SEA as a tool in development planning: 1. Serve as a methodological framework for sub-basin hydropower SEAs in the LMB, which will be carried out as input to MRC s Basin Development Plan; and 2. Include capacity building to strengthen the respective analytical SEA capabilities in the concerned line agencies of the MRC Member States.

5 SEA expected outputs 5 A comprehensive SEA of mainstream hydropower development in the LMB including: 1. Specific recommendations supporting decisions relating to mainstream development plans 2. Environmental safeguards and mitigation measures linked to hydropower planning in the LMB 3. Recommendations for institutional and policy reform 4. Recommendation for improving the guidelines for SEA in the hydropower sector 5. A set of tools and a database for future SEAs in the hydropower sector 6. Enhanced capacity for conducting SEAs

6 6 The plan the SEA is assessing All SEAs are linked to a plan or policy

7 Mekong region development planning system 7 GMS economic sector planning (3 year cycle) BDP integrated spatial planning National planning Local government planning Some regional planning Project planning Key characteristics of planning system Project and investment driven Far reaching multiplier and cumulative effects Piecemeal environmental assessment Little spatial or integrated planning Not transparent or inclusive

8 Candidate plans as the SEA focus 8 1. GMS energy road map 2. Basin Development Plan 3. The 4 national power development plans 4. The 8 & 11 existing and planned mainstream projects in Yunnan Province, Lao PDR and Cambodia

9 Dams on the mainstream Mekong Upper Mekong 8 existing or planned Lower Mekong 11 planned Dams on Mekong Tributaries Existing and planned 94 (only hydro dams does not include irrigation dams 9

10 Developers Dam Developer Country Pak Beng Datang International Power Generation China Louangprabang Petrovietnam Power Corporation Vietnam Xayabouly SEAN & Ch. Karnchang Public Co Ltd Thailand Pak Lay CEIEC and Sino-Hydro China Sanakham Datang International Power Generation China Pakchom N/a Ban Koum Italian Thai Asia Corp. Holdings Thailand Latsua Charoen Energy and Water Asia Co Ltd Thailand Don Sahong Mega First Malaysia Stung Treng Open Joint Stock Co. Bureyagessttroy Russian Sambor China Southern Power Grid China

11 Dam Status Environmental study status Commission date Status Pak Beng MoU, feasibility IEE submitted 2016 Louangprabang MoU, feasibility Feasibility study, 2016 Xayabouly MoU, feasibility Feasibility and full ESIA submitted 2016 Pak Lay MoU, feasibility IEE submitted 2016 Sangkham MoU, feasibility Not yet 2016 Pakchom Master Plan Not yet 2017 Ban Koum MoU, feasibility Not yet 2017 Latsua MoU, pre-feasibility Pre-feasibility study submitted 2018 Don Sahong MoU, detailed planning Full EIA submitted, Additional studies requested 2013 Stung Treng MoU, pre-feasibility Not yet N/a Sambor MoU, pre-feasibility Pre-feasibility submitted 2020

12 Statistics about the dams Project Name Rated Head m Plant Design Dischar ge m3/s Installed Capacity MW Peaking Capability MW Mean Annual Energy GWh Firm Annual Energy GWh Pakbeng 31 7,250 1,230 1,230 5,517 4,073 Luangprabang 40 3,812 1,410 1,412 5,437 4,205 Xayabuly 24 6,018 1,260 1,260 6,035 5,139 Paklay 26 4,500 1,320 1,320 6,460 4,252 Sanakham 25 5,918 1,200 1,200 5,015 3,978 Pakchom 22 5,720 1,079 1,079 5,318 5,052 Ban Kum 19 11,700 1,872 1,872 8,434 8,012 Latsua 10 9, ,504 2,452 Don Sahong 17 2, ,375 1,989 Stung Treng 15 18, ,870 2,937 Sambor 33 17,668 2,600 2,030 11,740 9,150 TOTAL 14,111 64,706 51,239

13 Statistics about the dams Project Name Full Supply Level mamsl Low Supply Level mamsl Live Storage mcm Reservoir area sq km Pakbeng Luangprabang Xayabuly Paklay Sanakham Pakchom Ban Kum Latsua Don Sahong ha Stung Treng Sambor TOTAL 1367

14 Dimensions (these details are changing as design proceeds) Dam Length of dam (m) Height (m) Reservoir area (sq.km) Pak Beng Louang Prabang 1, Xayabouly Pak Lay Sanakham 1, Pakchom 1, Ban Koum Latsua n/a na 13 Don Sahong ha Stung Treng 10, Sambor 18,

15 People to be resettled Dam Revised estimates No estimates yet of downstream affected people Pak Beng 6,694 Louangprabang 17,700 Xayabouly 2,151 Pak Lay 18,000 Sanakham 12,950 Pakchom N/a Ban Koum 2,570 Latsua N/a Don Sahong 66 Stung Treng 9,160 Sambor 19,034 TOTAL 88,325

16 Pak Beng Proposed dam at Pak Beng FSL = 345 masl MDL = 339 masl Area = Length = km

17 17 Luangprabang

18 Xayaboury Proposed dam at Xayaboury FSL = 275 masl MDL = 270 masl Area = 49 sq.km Extends 150km to Louangprabang

19 Cambodia 1. Stung Treng 2. Sambor Flatter topography Reservoirs extend beyond the river channel

20 Characteristics and opportunities for the SEA to held shape development 20 The SEA is not being conducted as a formal requirement within a legal framework -- but it is supported by the MRC member countries It is not addressing an existing plan or one in preparation but a group of feasible project proposals for the same river The projects are all in the planning stages so, in principle remain open to influence Most of the projects have not been subject to EIAs or any form of cumulative impact assessment so those more specific studies are open to influence A broad development plan for the LMB (the BDP) is under preparation so is open to influence National power development plans are under review and preparation therefore open to influence The GMS energy road map and strategy is regularly reviewed and therefore open to influence

21 21 SEA approach The main steps in the SEA of mainstream hydropower

22 Steps in the SEA Scoping 1. Identification of key issues for development of the river basin 2. Scoping of key issues to define the strategic issues of concern 3. Defining the sustainability objectives for the SEA 2. Baseline assessment and trend analysis 1. Gathering of the evidence base in each country 2. Analysis of past trends and current situation in the key development issues

23 Steps in the SEA Risk (impact) assessment 1. Defining the scenarios to be assessed Without hydropower development With hydropower development 2. Defining future trends in the key issues under each scenario 3. Assessing the combined/cumulative effects of future trends in the key issues under each scenario 4. Valuation of risks and development options 4. Avoidance, enhancement and mitigation 1. Identifying avoidance, enhancement and mitigation measures

24 1. SEA scoping phase 24 The SEA scoping phase is to establish: Temporal and spatial boundaries Institutional and planning context Issue coverage The nature and extent of stakeholder participation Identification of a limited number of key strategic issues

25 1. Scoping Regional baseline assessment workshop Baseline Assessment 3. Impact Assessment

26 The SEA process for mainstream developments 26DEVELOPMENT SEA STAGES CONSULATION PLANNING STEPS MOUs Prefeasibility studies IEE process Feasibility studies EIA process Project development agreement s (PDA and PPA) Inception Report Trend analysis and additional study reports Initial Draft SEA Final Draft SEA Final SEA Report Scoping (May to July): SEA objectives, baseline assessment, sustainability objectives, key issues definition & Additional studies Baseline Assessment & Trend Analysis (July to Sept): Analysis of past trends and current situation in the key development issues Opportunities and Risk Assessment (Oct to Dec): future trend analysis (with & without Hydropower), Assessing the combined effects on future trends in the key issues, Valuation of risks and development options Avoidance, enhancement and mitigation (Dec to March) Identifying avoidance, enhancement and mitigation measures Communications & Consultation Plans National Scoping Workshops & Capacity Building Sessions Regional Scoping Workshop Regional Baseline Assessment Workshop & Cambodian Field Mission Regional Impacts Assessment Workshop & Thailand Field Mission Regional Multi-stakeholder Workshop Regional Mitigation Workshop & Vietnam Field Mission

27 SCOPING BASELINE ASSESSMENT IMPACT ASSESSMENT MITIGATION DATE MEETING LOCATION SEA STAGE NATIONAL CONSULTATIONS Viet Nam Scoping Phase JUNE JULY JUNE VN Government line agency meetings July Ha Noi JULY 02 VN National Workshop Ha Noi Lao PDR JULY 06- LAO Government line agency meetings 07 Vientiane LAO National Workshop 09 LAO Civil Society meeting LAO Field Mission: Xayabouly, Luang Prabang Cambodia JULY 14- KH Government line agency meetings Phnom 15 Penh KH National Workshop 17 KH Civil Society meeting KH Field Mission Stung Treng, Sambor Thailand AUG 4-5 THAI Government line agency meetings Bangkok 6-7 THAI National Workshop REGIONAL CONSULTATIONS Cambodia Baseline Assessment Phase AUG OCT SEPT Cambodian Government Department Meetings Phnom Penh Regional Baseline Assessment Workshop Thailand Impacts Assessment Phase OCT DEC DEC 3-4 Thai Government Department Meetings Bangkok 5-6 Thai Field Mission: Ban Koum Ban Koum 7-8 Regional Impacts Assessment Workshop Bangkok Lao PDR DEC 15 Regional Multistakeholder Workshop Vientiane Lao Regional Field Mission: Luong Prabang Viet Nam Avoidance, Enhancement & Mitigation Assessment Phase JAN - MAR JAN 4 Vietnamese Government Department Meetings 5-6 Regional Mitigation Workshop Can Tho Viet Nam Field Mission Mekong Delta

28 28 Initial review of issues MRC SEA on Mekong mainstream hydropower

29 Initial scoping phase activities 29 In April to May initial scoping involved: 1. Initial consultations on scope and key strategic issues 2. Surveying baseline data availability and gap analysis on legal and policy framework 3. Scoping MRC inputs to the SEA 4. Proposing approaches to communication and stakeholder involvement 5. Preparing an issues background paper

30 MRC Mandate 30 Development on the Mekong mainstream is the sovereign decision of the individual governments within the framework of the Mekong Agreement (1995) National decisions are subject to National planning & regulatory processes All riparian nations require EIAs of projects Vietnam requires SEAs of plans Some decisions require prior notification under the MRC Prior Notification, Prior Consultation Agreement (PNPCA) MRC has a role in initiating and facilitating discussions among Member Countries

31 Regional Issues Transboundary decision making processes 2. Existing national capacities to manage the projects 3. Cumulative effects of many projects 4. River s ecology and resource values 5. Uncertainty of power demand 6. Alternative generation sources

32 1. Decision making processes New tools are needed to deal with transboundary impacts: What is the role & scope of MRC processes What is the extent of transboundary influence over national decision making 2. Mainstream dams present a significant test to the effectiveness of: MRC process of prior notification MRC influence on decision-making systems

33 2. Existing national capacities National capacity and regulatory framework for managing complex hydro projects needs to be stronger, eg implementation of social and environmental assessment and mitigation Coordination and integration of multiple dam operations 2. In this context, particularly important that SEA : Supports national planning processes, Effectively involves regulatory authorities

34 3. Cumulative effects All countries concerned about cumulative effects of several dams in cascades 2. Present process of feasibility studies & impact assessment does not account for cumulative impacts This view was shared by some of the regulatory authorities 3. Need for the SEA to provide a clear, transparent evidence-based assessment of these potential cumulative impacts

35 4. River s ecology and resource 35 values 1. Acknowledged by all as important, especially: fish habitats, stocks and migration livelihoods of fish-dependent communities 2. Some worried that the focus on fisheries could result in other important social & environmental issues being neglected, eg: Nutrient & sediment flows Terrestrial ecosystems including agriculture River bank and bed erosion

36 5. Power demand Area of great uncertainty in the short-medium term 2. Important consideration for financial viability of dams and investment returns 3. Need a comprehensive & credible future regional power demand projection for the SEA

37 6. Alternative generation sources Alternative power generation needs comprehensive assessment consensus on this point amongst government & civilsociety 2. No consensus on whether or not alternative sources could replace mainstream power Can the SEA provide some clarity on this issue? Is it within the scope of the assessment?

38 Regional summary (1) 38 Hydropower is a complex development with a wide range of issues considered to be strategically significant for the LMB 1. Mainstream Mekong dam construction is the: i. most significant issue facing the river basin in ii. contemporary times most challenging issue that MRC needs to address for the foreseeable future need to get it right because of the irreversible nature of dam impacts 2. Wide range of issues are considered to be of strategic significance

39 Regional summary (2) Strong emphasis given by all countries on: impacts on affected livelihoods likely ecosystems changes 2. The need for better analysis acceptance of the need for a process like the SEA 3. Need to effectively integrate social & environmental concerns into hydropower planning

40 National issues 40 Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam

41 CAMBODIA: National context 41 Both a potential beneficiary and where impacts are likely to be significant key issues are seen as complex trade-offs Wide-scale interest in the SEA need broad stakeholder participation throughout the SEA Government in principle favours the dams in Cambodian territory provided adequate safeguards

42 CAMBODIA: National concerns Fisheries 2. River flows 3. Sedimentation & erosion 4. Impacts on the Tonle Sap system especially reversal of flow and fisheries 5. Impacts on livelihoods of riverine communities

43 LAO PDR: National concerns National development & foreign exchange earnings, with few other national alternatives Questions how reliable hydro foreign exchange earnings will be in the long run 2. Internal market and electrification of Lao not a driver of mainstream hydropower 3. Regulatory capacity (e.g. ability to implement ESIA regulation and manage projects) 4. Social & environmental impacts, but a general feeling that these could be adequately mitigated if a dams are financially feasible

44 THAILAND: National concerns Dominant issue: possible impacts on riverine communities: Accelerated erosion Changes to sedimentation regime Habitat changes/loss Diminished ecological resource availability Changes to water quality & availability 2. Thai government & civil-society groups: strong concerns for wider environmental impacts, including upstream/downstream of Thailand 3. Thai national power demand & future energy security seen as of little relevance because: i. Future power demands have been significantly over-estimated, and ii. Mainstream dams will only play a minor role in meeting demand projections

45 VIETNAM: National context 45 Government and civil society - Very strong concerns over mainstream dam development General feeling that Vietnam will not benefit and may suffer the costs of mainstream dams Overwhelmingly emphasise basin-wide environmental and resource impacts of mainstream dam development

46 VIETNAM: National concerns 46 Mekong delta already experiencing multiple stresses, concerns related to: 1. flow regime 2. sediment & nutrient flows 3. Fish migration patterns 4. Biodiversity 5. Extent & severity of saline intrusion (surface & groundwater) 6. Increasing uncertainty of climate change impacts 7. Potential neglect of the Delta 8. Want specific & detailed analysis of the impacts of mainstream dams on the delta 9. Transboundary decision making process considered a key strategic issue

47 SEA expected outputs 47 A comprehensive SEA of mainstream hydropower development in the LMB including: 1. Specific recommendations supporting decisions relating to mainstream development plans 2. Environmental safeguards and mitigation measures linked to hydropower planning in the LMB 3. Recommendations for institutional and policy reform 4. Recommendation for improving the guidelines for SEA in the hydropower sector 5. A set of tools and a database for future SEAs in the hydropower sector 6. Enhanced capacity for conducting SEAs

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