NUCLEAR POWER: Prospects in the 21st Century
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1 NUCLEAR POWER: Prospects in the 21st Century Mike Corradini Nuclear Engr. & Engr. Physics WINS: Wisconsin Institute of Nuclear Systems
2 Background Information Population continues to increase worldwide (US/Europe: <1%/yr; Asia: > 2%/yr) Energy usage is growing more rapidly (US/Europe: ~1%/yr; Asia: >8%/yr) 400 quads (2000) and 444 quads (2004) Electrical energy use also increases (US/Europe: ~2%/yr; Asia: >5-8%/yr) Energy is the vital physical force behind our system P. Denholm, G.L. Kulcinski. (2004) "Life-Cycle Energy Requirements and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Large-Scale Energy Systems" Energy Conversion and Management.
3 What is the current situation in US? U.S. Energy Usage Solar <1% Geothermal 5% Nuclear 8% Natural Gas 23% Biomass 47% Petroleum 40% Coal 23% Renewables 6% Wind 2% Hydro 45% EIA 2004 Source: Renewable Energy Trends 2004; Energy Information Administration, August Note: Total U.S. Energy Supply is QBtu; Energy Information Administration, August 2005.
4 World Energy Usage Relative Energy Use Year FF Ratio NP Ratio HydroR RenewR FF share
5 ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES Conditions for Energy Sustainability: Adequate supply of energy resource Acceptable land usage for energy & fuel cycle Minimal by-product streams Economically feasible technology Neither the power source nor the technology to exploit it can be controlled by a few nations Business as usual cannot continue for energy without suffering from unintended consequences
6 Environmental Impacts: Area Requirements (km 2 / MW; Source - J. Davidson, 2006) Coal 0.01/0.04 Nuclear 0.001/ MW POWER PLANT 100 % CAPACITY (8766 GWh/YEAR) Biomass 5.2 PV 0.12 Wind 0.79 Geothermal Solar Thermal 0.08 Hydro
7 1000 Mwe-yr Power Plant Emissions COAL GAS NUCLEAR Sulfur-oxide ~ 1000 mt Nitrous-oxide ~ 5000 mt 400 mt Particulates ~ 1400 mt Ash (solids) ~ 1million mt CO2 > 7million mt 3.5mill. mt Trace elements ~ 1mt** ~ 1 kg ** Volatilized heavy metals: e.g., Mercury, Lead, Cadmium, Arsenic Spent Fuel mt Fission Products ~1 mt (EIA )
8 Environmental Impact: US Sources of Emission-Free Generation (2004) Hydro 29.1% Geothermal 1.3% Photovoltaic <0.1% Wind <0.4 % Nuclear 69.1% Source: EIA Emerging Energy Technology Summit 2007
9 Cost of Electricity (cents/kwh) Cost of Electricity (2004 U.S. Average) ( /kwhr) * 2006: J. Davidson, Univ. Minn
10 Future Energy Choices What can be done in the short-term (~1-10yr)? Improved energy efficiency (driven by cost & law) What can be done in the mid-term (~10-50yr)? Seek proven alternatives that do not exacerbate the situation (hybrid cars, nuclear, clean coal, wind?) What can be done in the long-term (>50yr)? Invest in R&D for major new technology gains (biofuels, advanced nuclear, solar-pv, electric cars) We need to make conscious choices => NUCLEAR
11 Evolution of Nuclear Power Systems Generation I Early Prototype Reactors Generation II Commercial Power Reactors Shippingport Dresden,Fermi-I Magnox Gen I LWR: PWR/BWR CANDU VVER/RBMK Gen II
12 billion kilowatt-hours Top 10 Nuclear Countries (2000) Measured by generation, U.S. nuclear program is: as large as France and Japan (#2 and #3) combined; and larger than the other 7 nations in the top 10 combined Source: IAEA US France Japan Germany Russia Korea RP UK Canada Sweden Ukraine
13 Capacity Factors Improvement 95% 85% 75% 86.8% in % in % in % in 2002 NEI % 55% 80 Source: NEI
14 (cents/kilowatt-hour) Lowest Electricity Production Costs /kwh in /kwh in /kwh in /kwh in 2001 EIA Source: NEI
15 License Renewal:Extends Value 44 NPP Extended 34 NPP Applied 22 NPP Being Considered (2006)
16 44 NPP Extended 34 NPP Applied 22 NPP Being Considered
17 Nuclear Power Plants: US Potential Orders Company Site(s) Early Site Permit (ESP) Design, # of units TVA (NuStart) Bellefonte (TN) W: AP1000 (2) October 2007 South Carolina E & G Summer (SC) W: AP1000 (2) October 2007 Duke Cherokee County, SC W: AP1000 (2) October 2007 Construction/Operating License Submittal Timeline Progress Energy Harris (NC) Florida (Site TBD) W: AP1000 (2) TBD (2) October 2007 July 2008 Constellation (UniStar) Calvert Cliffs (MD) or Nine Mile Point (NY) Will go to COL with early submittal of siting info Areva: EPR (5) 4Q Dominion North Anna (VA) Under review, approval expected 2007 Entergy (NuStart) Grand Gulf (MS) Under review, approval expected 2007 GE: ESBWR (1) November 2007 GE: ESBWR (1) November 2007 NRG Energy (STP) South Texas Project (TX) GE: ABWR (2) Late 2007 Southern Company Vogtle (GA) Submitted August 2006, Approval expected early 2009 W: AP1000 (2) March 2008 Entergy River Bend (LA) GE: ESBWR (1) May 2008 Amarillo Power Near Amarillo, TX Under development for 4Q/07 GE: ABWR (2) Soon as practicable after 2007 Texas Utilities TBD Straight to COL TBD: 2-6 GWe 2008 Exelon Clinton (IL) Under review, approval expected 2007 TBD TBD Florida Power & Light TBD TBD TBD Duke Davie County, NC Under consideration TBD Duke Oconee County, SC Under consideration TBD
18 Nuclear Power Safety There has not been a loss of life in the US due to commercial nuclear plants (TMI released a small amount of radiation) Chernobyl accident - a terrible accident with a bad design These plants are now closed or redesigned for operation Russian nuclear plant operations are being assisted by IAEA Regional deregulation of the electricity industry poses new challenges to the safe management of nuclear power plants. - Upgrades of power plant equipment and reliable replacement schedule - Risk-informed decision-making needs to consider cost-benefit issues => New plants (GenIII) will be safer than current designs
19 Nuclear Energy: Defense-in-Depth Reliable Operation - Safety is foremost - Doing it right Improving Engr. System Designs -Instrumentation - Materials Credible Regulation - Risk-based stds. - Public access Recruit/retain top-notch people for all sectors
20 Nuclear Power High Level Waste (HLW) All nuclear fuel cycle waste (except HLW) has been safely and reliably disposed through DoE and NRC regulations; milling, enrichment, fabrication as LLW Since 1982, US law defines spent nuclear fuel as HLW, since reprocessing has not occurred since 1976 (Japan and Europe is where reprocessing does occur) Spent fuel is currently stored at ~104 nuclear power plant sites (~ 2000 mt/yr; total ~50,000 mt) and planned to be stored/buried at one site in the US (Yucca Mtn) All nuclear electricity is taxed at 1mill/kwhre for a HLW fund (~ $0.8 billion/yr; total ~ $20 billion) => HLW radiation exposure at disposal site will be less than natural background radiation
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