Nested Global/Regional Modeling of Background Ozone Over the US

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1 Nested Global/Regional Modeling of Background Ozone Over the US Chris Emery ENVIRON International Corporation, Novato, CA WESTAR Western Ozone Transport Conference October 10-12, 2012 Template

2 Introduction EPA defines different flavors of background ozone Natural: no global anthropogenic sources Biogenic, stratospheric, fires, lightning, pre-industrial CH 4 North American Background (NAB formerly PRB) Adds global anthropogenic sources outside North America US Background Adds Canadian and Mexican anthropogenic sources Global models are used to estimate background EPA has relied on GEOS-Chem extensively Fiore et al. (2002,2003), Wang et al. (2009), Zhang et al. (2011) Downscaling to regional models adds spatial, temporal, and chemical detail locally Mueller and Mallard (2011), Emery et al. (2012) 2

3 Overview of NAB Modeling for 2006 Global modeling using GEOS-Chem Boundary conditions for regional models Simulate base and NAB ozone NAB run removes NA contributions to itself Regional modeling using CAMx and CMAQ Compare base and NAB ozone at higher resolution Consistent met/emissions datasets Different physical mechanisms and numerical treatments Stratosphere is entirely defined by boundary conditions Evaluate sensitivity to various sources 3

4 GEOS-Chem Setup GEOS-Chem v8.3.1 (May 2010) run for resolution, 47 layers to 80 km GEOS-5 meteorology (3/6-hourly) Standard emission inputs, plus: Doubled Korea/Japan NOx consistent with China adjustment from satellite evidence (Zhang et al., 2009) Standard algorithms/chemistry Spinup from July 2005 (IC s distributed with model) 4

5 CAMx/CMAQ Setup CAMx v5.30, CMAQ v4.7.1 run for 2006 Nested grids, 34 vertical layers to 20 km 36 km North American domain (CAMx) BC s from 3-hourly GEOS-Chem output 12 km western and eastern nests (CAMx & CMAQ ) BC s from 1-hourly CAMx 36 km output Standard algorithms/cb05 chemistry 12 km meteorology & emissions from EPA/ORD (AQME-II) Updated: O&G emissions from WRAP Phase II and newer basin-specific estimates Added: lightning NOx diagnosed from AQME-II/WRF 5

6 O&G Updates by Basin 6

7 CAMx/CMAQ Modeling Domains and Evaluation Sites 25 CASTNET sites grouped by region Ozonesondes 7

8 Annual 4 th Highest MDA8 Full Emissions 8

9 Spring+Summer Model Performance CAMx vs. CMAQ 9

10 Annual Frequency of High Ozone CAMx vs. CMAQ 4 points per region represent each season 10

11 Season-Average Ozonesonde Profiles Observed, GC, CAMx, CMAQ 11

12 Annual 4 th Highest MDA8 NAB Emissions Including Fires Fires Removed Stratospheric enhancement 12

13 Spring+Summer NAB by Observed Ozone CAMx vs. CMAQ 13

14 Annual Number Days, NAB Above Threshold 14

15 GEOS-Chem NAB Sensitivity Results Remove Lightning NOx Summer Increase Asia Emissions Spring Projection: +50% NOx, +100% VOC consistent with Ohara et al. (2007) Add Agricultural NOx Summer 15

16 CAMx NAB Stratospheric Ozone Attribution Summer west: peak MDA8 (left) mean MDA8 (right) Summer East: peak MDA8 (left) mean MDA8 (right) 16

17 Summary CAMx/CMAQ Base and NAB were similar CMAQ higher in west (snow cover, diffusive vertical advection) CAMx higher in east (weaker PBL/cloud mixing) CAMx/CMAQ NAB exhibited large variation Spring+summer mean MDA8 ranged ppb Highest in elevated terrain of western US NAB positively correlated with measured ozone CAMx/CMAQ captured stratospheric events But did not replicate peak measurements of ~90 ppb GEOS-Chem under predicted springtime ozone Stratosphere by ~100 ppb, troposphere by ~10 ppb Bias transferred to CAMx/CMAQ 17

18 Summary (continued) Wildfire contributions appear over estimated Contributions locally reached over 100 ppb realistic? Lightning NOx appears over estimated 20 ppb mean contributions to summer ozone realistic? Agricultural NOx contributed 5 ppb in the summer Unclear if this reflects EPA s definition for background ozone Asian emissions impact springtime western US Growth scenario suggests ppb season-averaged impacts CAMx estimated short-term STE contributions ppb in west, 10 ppb in east STE enhance NAB levels in all seasons throughout the US Uncertainty remains high in these models 18

19 Areas for Future Research Source apportionment modeling (current API project) Troposphere, stratosphere, Asia, natural interaction including full anthropogenic NA emissions (i.e., not NAB) Wildfires (current Texas AQRP project) Rates, injection heights, convective influences, smoke shading, NOx-NOz speciation Lightning NOx (important CMAQ updates) Rates, location/height, models vs. detection networks Stratospheric ozone transport into troposphere Subject to source and transport error (resolution, meteorology and numerical methods) Interfacing other global models to regional models Current Texas AQRP project (AM3 Princeton/GFDL) 19

20 Acknowledgements This work was funded by the American Petroleum Institute Harvard University provided GEOS-Chem, along with assistance and guidance Nicole Downey, Earth System Sciences, LLC, assisted with analyses and graphics O&G emission updates were supported by WRAP, IPAMS, and FCAQTF 20

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