Update on trends in background ozone concentrations

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1 Update on trends in background ozone concentrations Owen R. Cooper CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, USA NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, USA Modeling Air Quality from the Global to Local Scale May , NCAR Center Green, Boulder, Colorado

2 Background vs Baseline ozone Baseline ozone Ozone transported to a location (i.e. Trinidad Head, CA) from all upwind sources (i.e., natural and anthropogenic) before modification by recent, localized U.S. emissions. includes aged ozone, produced many days earlier from U.S. emissions, that is returned to the U.S. after circling the globe. can be directly observed by surface or airborne instrumentation along the west coast or U.S. political borders; can also be observed above the inland regions of the western U.S. in air masses not influenced by recent US emissions. Global or hemispheric background ozone a model construct that estimates the atmospheric concentration of a pollutant due to natural or a combination of natural and anthropogenic sources.

3 How has global tropospheric ozone changed since pre industrial times? Ensemble of 15 global models: Tropospheric ozone burden increased by 40% from 1850 to present day.

4 Is global tropospheric ozone still increasing? The OMI/MLS instruments on NASA s AURA satellite have monitored tropospheric ozone since years of data show that ozone has increased ly in both hemispheres. Is ten years of data enough considering the influence of ENSO on ozone? OMI/MLS data processed by J. Ziemke, NASA GSFC. Cooper, O., and J. Ziemke (2015): [Global Climate] Tropospheric Ozone [in "State of the Climate in 2014"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in preparation.

5 Is the baseline ozone flowing into western North America increasing? Ozone precursor emissions in south and east Asia have increased. Observed ozone is increasing at most surface sites in east Asia.

6 Annual surface ozone trends: 1990s through (from the peer reviewed literature) increase in increase decrease in decrease ozonesonde site low elevation site high elevation site

7 Methane continues to increase Pre industrial methane ~ 715 ppb Methane has increased by 12% since 1984

8 Mauna Loa, Hawaii Quite possibly the world s best ozone time series Started in 1974 by Sam Oltmans, NOAA GMD 3.4 km above sea level, nighttime data represent the lower free troposphere 41 years of continuous data Yearly median ozone has increased by 17% since % 67 % 50% 33% 5 %

9 Springtime ozone trend above western North America A composite of all available ozone observations, 3 8 km above western North America Ozone increased from at 0.41 ppbv yr 1 95% 67 % 50% 33% 5 % Cooper, O. R., R. S. Gao, D. Tarasick, T. Leblanc, and C. Sweeney (2012), Long term ozone trends at rural ozone monitoring sites across the United States, , J. Geophys. Res., 117, D22307, doi: /2012jd

10 Mount Bachelor, Oregon The only continuous free troposphere monitoring site in the western US Started in 2004 by Dan Jaffe, U of Washington 2.8 km above sea level, nighttime data represent the lower free troposphere 11 years of continuous data Springtime ozone increase is

11 Trends in ozone design values During ozone decreased in the western US by: 1.0 ±0.6 ppbv yr 1 below 1 km 0.6 ±0.7 ppbv yr 1 above 1 km 0.4 ±0.7 ppbv yr 1 high elevation rural sites 0.2 ±0.6 ppbv yr 1 Northern Colorado Front Range increase in increase decrease in decrease

12 Summer ozone trends increase in increase decrease in decrease Cooper, O. R., R. S. Gao, D. Tarasick, T. Leblanc, and C. Sweeney (2012), Long term ozone trends at rural ozone monitoring sites across the United States, , J. Geophys. Res., 117, D22307, doi: /2012jd

13 Spring ozone trends increase in increase decrease in decrease Cooper, O. R., R. S. Gao, D. Tarasick, T. Leblanc, and C. Sweeney (2012), Long term ozone trends at rural ozone monitoring sites across the United States, , J. Geophys. Res., 117, D22307, doi: /2012jd

14 Lassen Volcanic National Park, 1.8 km asl April May average, All available maximum daily 8 hr mean values 51.1 ppbv 48.5 ppbv

15 Fostering Global Cooperation on Ozone Research IGAC s newest Activity: Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) Global metrics for climate change, human health and crop/ecosystem research >160 scientists representing 33 nations and all 7 continents Mission: Provide the research community with an up to date global assessment of tropospheric ozone s distribution and trends from the surface to the tropopause. Facilitate access to the ozone metrics necessary for quantifying ozone s impact on human health and crop/ecosystem productivity Stakeholders:

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21 Seasonal ozone cycle at rural sites in the USA, Europe and China Cooper et al., (2014), Global distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone: An observation based review, Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 2, , doi: /journal.elementa

22 Boundary layer ozone and CO above ten northern mid latitude urban regions, as measured by MOZAIC commercial aircraft during June, MOZAIC data processed by Regina Zbinden, Meteo France Cooper et al., (2014), Global distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone: An observation based review, Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 2, , doi: /journal.elementa

23 General intercontinental transport processes. Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution 2010, Part A: Ozone and Particulate Matter, F. Dentener, T. Keating and H. Akimoto (eds.), Air Pollution Studies No. 17, United Nations, New York and Geneva, ISSN , ISBN

24 Impact of Asia on springtime ozone across the N. Pacific Ocean and North America Surface 500 hpa 300 hpa Ozone transport from Asia is at a maximum during spring. The sphere of influence of Asian ozone is strongest in the mid troposphere and reaches Hawaii and western North America. Only continuous US free tropospheric baseline monitoring sites downwind of Asia: Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and Mt Bachelor, Oregon Brown Steiner, B., and P. Hess (2011), Asian influence on surface ozone in the United States: A comparison of chemistry, seasonality, and transport mechanisms, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D17309, doi: /2011jd

25 Spring: Only the 67 th and 95 th percentiles show increases. 95 th percentile increased by 13 ppbv has the highest ozone on record. Late summer: Median ozone increased by 44 %. 95 th percentile increased by 12 ppbv. Stratospheric influence at annual minimum. 95% 67% 50% 33% 5 % 95% 67% 50% 33% 5 %

26 Spring: Ozone is increasing, most trend values are Late summer: Ozone is increasing but the extremes are not

27 Policy decisions based on sound science have led to dramatic reductions in air pollution in major urban areas like Los Angeles. Los Angeles air pollution: Parrish et al., (2011), Atmospheric Environment, 45 EPA reports that NO x emissions have decreased nationwide by 32% during , and will continue to decline.

28 The US population increased by 22% from % 44% 11% 95% 37% 30% Cooper, O. R., et al. (2012), Long term ozone trends at rural ozone monitoring sites across the United States, , J. Geophys. Res., 117, D22307, doi: /2012jd018261

29 US ozone precursor emission reductions (source: EPA) NO x 49 % CO 58 % VOC 44 % a) Trends in tropospheric column NO 2, as detected by the GOME and SCIAMACHY instruments for spring (circles and thick lines) and summer (squares and thin lines) across the continental USA, and three subregions. b) Tropospheric column NO 2 trends for three small areas in the western USA. Cooper, O. R., et al. (2012), Long term ozone trends at rural ozone monitoring sites across the United States, , J. Geophys. Res., 117, D22307, doi: /2012jd018261

30 Ozone design values: annual fourth highest daily maximum 8 hr ozone mixing ratio, averaged over 3 years Calculated by EPA During ozone decreased in the eastern US by 1.3 ±0.6 ppbv yr 1 (trend range is 1 standard deviation). increase in increase decrease in decrease

31 During ozone decreased in the western US by: 1.0 ±0.6 ppbv yr 1 below 1 km 0.6 ±0.7 ppbv yr 1 above 1 km 0.4 ±0.7 ppbv yr 1 high elevation rural sites 0.2 ±0.6 ppbv yr 1 Northern Colorado Front Range increase in increase decrease in decrease

32 Summer ozone trends increase in increase decrease in decrease Cooper, O. R., R. S. Gao, D. Tarasick, T. Leblanc, and C. Sweeney (2012), Long term ozone trends at rural ozone monitoring sites across the United States, , J. Geophys. Res., 117, D22307, doi: /2012jd

33 Spring ozone trends increase in increase decrease in decrease Cooper, O. R., R. S. Gao, D. Tarasick, T. Leblanc, and C. Sweeney (2012), Long term ozone trends at rural ozone monitoring sites across the United States, , J. Geophys. Res., 117, D22307, doi: /2012jd

34 Lassen Volcanic National Park, 1.8 km asl April May average, All available maximum daily 8 hr mean values 51.1 ppbv 48.5 ppbv

35 The challenge of a lower ozone standard in the western USA EPA has proposed a revised ozone standard in the range of ppbv Based on human health impacts By law, cannot consider attainability Many rural high elevation sites in the western USA will exceed the new standard. There is little these regions can do to reduce their ozone Continental baseline ozone plays a major role If ozone NAAQS = 65 ppbv

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37 Annual average ozone trends at rural sites, (data from all 24 hours) increase in increase decrease in decrease Domestic ozone precursor emissions decreased by 50% during In the west ozone increased ly at 42% of rural sites. In the east ozone decreased ly at 24% of rural sites.

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