PROCESS ECONOMICS PROGRAM

Transcription

1 PROCESS ECONOMICS PROGRAM SRI INTERNATIONAL Mmlo Park. Cditomir Abstract Process Economics Program Report 121 B WORLD PETROCHEMICAL FEEDSTOCKS: (May 1993) Wtxfd Pe&ochemica/ Feed&o&s: provides an understanding of world markets for oil, which is the basic hydrocarbon feedstock for the petrochemical industry. The fundamental factors that determine oil price are explained, and projections of supply, demand, and price are provided to The projections are based on assumptions about wotfd economic growth, OPEC actions, oil conservation policies, and non-opec oil supply. These economic assumptions, in turn, are used to project the world demand for ethylene, propylene, benzene, and paraxyiene. This report will be of interest to oil and petrochemical industry planners because of the knowledge base and the outlook for oil markets. Researchers will also find the report of interest because of the implications for process development inherent in the projections. PEP99 SF

2 Report No. 121 B WORLD PETROCHEMICAL FEEDSTOCKS: SUPPLEMENT B by STANFORD FIELD a Cl m A private report by the May 1993 PROCESS ECONOMICS PROGRAM Menlo Park, California 94025

3 For detailed marketing data and information, the reader is referred to one of the SRI programs spacialiiing in marketing research. The CHEM/CAL ECONOMICS HANDBOOK Program covers most majcr chemicals and chemical products produced in the United States and the WORLD PE7ROCHEMIC4LS Program covers major hydrocarbons and their derivatives on a worldwide basis. In addition, the SRI D/RECTORY OF CHEMICAL PRODUCEl?S services provide detailed lists of chemical producers by company, product, and plant for the United States, Western Europe, Canada, and East Asia. ii

4 CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION II~... l-l 2 SUMMARY THE WORLD ECONOMY CRUDE OIL PRICE WORLD ENERGY WORLD OIL AND GAS PETROLEUM REFINING ETHYLENE AND PROPYLENE BENZENE AND PARAXYLENE THE WORLD ECONOMY AND CRUDE OIL PRICE OUTLOOK GLOBAL POPULATION AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY CRUDE OIL PRICE: Variables Oil Supply Oil Demand OPEC Actions Equilibrium Price Projection WORLD ENERGY ENERGY CONSERVATION... 4-l ENERGY USE AND ECONOMIC ACTlvlTY ENERGYUSESTRUCTURE WORLD OIL AND GAS WORLD OIL OVERVIEW: WORLD OIL TRADE: WORLD OIL PRODUCTS DEMAND: WORLD CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: l 4 OPEC THE UNITED STATES Ill -

5 CONENTS (Concluded) 5 WORLD OIL AND GAS (Concluded) WESTERN EUROPE ASIA-MCFIC AREA... s-58 WORLD NATURAL GAS PETROLEUM REFINING... 6-l WORLD PEIROLEUM REFINING CAPACITY... 6-l ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS Law-be1 Atmospheric Ozone (Smog-Forming) Carbon Monoxide Emissions Benzene Emissions Sulfur Dioxide and Particulate Emissions from Diesel Fuel PETROLEUM REFINERY PROFITABILITY IN THE UNITED STATES PElROLEUM REFINERY PROFITABILITY IN WESTERN EUROPE PETROLEUM REFINERY PROFITABILITY IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC AREA EIHYLENE AND PROPYLENE... 7-l ECONOMtC ACTIVITY AND OLEFINS DEMAND... 7-l WORLD ETHYLENE DEMAND AND CAPACITY USE REGIONAL EIHYLENE DEMAND CRUDE OIL AND ETHYLENE PRICE PROJECTIONS WORLD PROPYLENE DEMAND PROPYLENE SUPPLY... 7-l 6 WORLD NAPHTHA BALANCE BEWENE AND PARAXYLENE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND AROMATICS DEMAND WORLD BENZENE DEMAND AND CAPACITY USE BENZENE LlMlTATlON IN GASOLINE IN THE UNlTED STATES CRUDE OIL AND BENZENE PRICE PROJECTIONS... 8-l 7 WORLD PARAXYLENE DEMAND AND CAPACITY USE... 8-l 9 - iv -

6 ILLUSTRATIONS 2.1 Projected Price of Arabian Light Crude Oil: , World Primary Energy Demand as a Function of Economic Activity: m World Oil Consumption: World Oil Products Demand: World Petroleum Refining Capacity and Crude Oil Consumption: Refinery Cracking Capacity Requirements as a Function of Demand for Gasoline/Residual Fuel Oil: World Demand for Ethylene and Propylene as a Function of Economic Activity: Crude Oil and Ethylene Price Trends: World Naphtha Supply: World Naphtha Demand: I World Demand for Benzene and Paraxylene as a Function of Economic Activity: Benzene Supply (by Source) in the United States: CrudeOilandBenzenePriceTrends: Trend In and Assumptions About OECD Economic Activity: Distribution of Economic Productivity by World Region in Distribution of Population by World Region in Distribution and Growth of Economic Productivity in World Regions: World Gross Domestic Product Trends by Region: World GDP Per Capita Trends by Region: World Population Trends by Region: l World Population, l 2 -V-

7 ILLUSTRATIONS (Continued) Variables Determining Oil Price Order-of-Magnitude Oil Production Cost as a Function of Average Oil Well Productivity in Major World Areas in Of I Price and Supply Curves: 1990 and Projected Price of Arabian Light Crude Oil: World Primary Energy Demand as a Function of Economic Activity: Trend of World Energy Demand, Economic Activity, and Energy Conservation Gbbal Energy Demand by Primary Energy Type: Energy Intensity in Major World Areas: Energy Use and Economic Activity in North America: EnergyUseandEconomicActivityinJapan: Energy Use and Economic Activity in Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe: Relationship Between Energy Use and Economic Activity in Europe in l 1 Energy Use in the Asia-Pacific Area: Energy Use in North America: Energy Use in Central and Eastern Europe: l 3 Energy Use in Western Europe: U.S. Energy Balance World Oil Consumption: World Oil Consumption by Region World Oil Production by Region NetWortdOilTrade World Oil Products Demand: l 1 -vi -

8 ILLUSTRATIONS (Continued) 5.6 Refinery Cracking Requirement as Measured by Gasoline/Fuel Oil: *...m World Crude Oil Supply by Region: OPEC Crude Oil Production Capacity Use: 1970-l OPEC Crude Oil Production Capacity: Saudi Arabia s Share of OPEC Income: Oil Supply in the United States: Crude Oil Reserves of the United States: Oil Price and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Fill Rate: Cost of Oil Imports for the United States: Gasoline Use in the United States: Octane Number of the Gasoline Pool in the United States: The Changing Composition of Gasoline in the United States: ,, Fossil Fuel Prices at Power Plants in the United States: 1973-l 990, Cycles of Winter Weather in the United States: 1935-l , Cost of Oil Imports for Western Europe: Octane Number of the Gasoline Pool in Western Europe: mm Global Distribution of Oil Products Use as a Function of Economic Activity in Exports of Natural Gas From the Soviet Union to Eastern and Western Europe: World Petroleum Refining Capacity and Crude Oil Consumption: Refinery Cracking Capacity Requirements as a Function of the Demand of Gasoline/Residual Fuel Oil: Hydrotreating Capacity Trends: Hydrorefining Capacity Trends: vii -

9 ILLUSTRATIONS (Continued) Hydrocracking Capacity Trends: Catalytic Cracking Capacity Trends: Coking Capacity Trends: P&roleum Refinery Capacity, Capacity Use, and Profitabiiii in the United States: 1970-l 996..,,,,...,,...I.I,...,,, Pet&urn Refinery Capacii, Capacity Use, and Prof&bility In Western Europe: ,...m...,,...m 6-26 Petroleum Refinery Capacii, Capacity Use, and Profitability in the Asia-Pacific Area: World Demand for Ethylene and Propylene as a Function of Economic Activity: l Economic Aotiiity in the OECD: Rata of Change in GDP lbnd In and Assumptions About OECD Economic Activity: World Ethylene Demand and Capacity: Crude Oil and Ethylene Price Trends: , , l 0 Options for Disposition of Propylene Propylene Supply and Demand in the United States: Propylene Supply and Demand in Western Europe: Propylene Supply and Demand in Japan: World Naphtha Demand: World Naphtha Supply: * World Demand for Benzene and Paraxylene as a Function of Economic Activity: World Benzene Capacity Use: 1974-l Average Benzene Content of Gasoline in the United States: Benzene Supply (by Source) in the United States: VIII -

10 ILLUSTRATIONS (Concluded) 8.5 Average Benzene Content of Gasoline in Western Europe: Benzene Supply (by Source) in Western Europe: Average Benzene Content of Gasoline in Japan: Benzene Supply (by Source) in Japan: l Crude Oil and Benzene Price Trends: World Paraxylene Capacity Use: 1974-l ix-

11 Global Population and Economic Activity: l Global Energy Demand World Oil Trade: World Oil and Natural Gas Reserves in World Natural Gas and Crude Oil Resenres World Natural Gas Reserves World Natural Gas Marketed Production World Oil Refining Capacity World Ethylene Demand by Region: World Propylene Demand by Region: Regional Propylene Suppiy Variations: World NapMha Balance: World Benzene Demand by Region: Effects of Benzene Limitation in Gasoline on U.S. Toluene Hydrodealkylation: World Paraxylene Demand by Region: l 8 Global Population and Economic Activity: Summery of Global Population and Economic Activity: Global Population and Economic Activity World Oil Cost and Supply in World Oil Cost and Supply in Global Energy Demand: Energy Intensity of Major World Areas: Energy/GDP Slope of Major World Areas (at Low Energy Prices) World Oil Consumption: xi -

12 TABLES (Continued) World Oil (Crude and NGL) Production: Net World Oil Trade: World Oil Products Demand: Crude Oil Production of Selected Non-OPEC Countries world Crude Oil Production: 197Ck Historical World Crude Oil Reserves World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Reserves: OPEC Crude Oil Production Capacity: Petroleum Supply and Demand in the United States: M&or Vehicle Population and Gasoline Demand in the United States: U.S. Gasoline Demand and Octane Number: , Average Gasoline Pool Composition in the United States: n Fossil Fuels Used in Electricity Generation Plants in the United States: United States Heating Degree-Days Petroleum Supply and Demand in Western Europe: European Gasoline Demand: European Gasoline Octane Number: Summary of Global Oil Products Use: Summary of Supply and Demand of Petroleum Products in the Whole Asia-Pacific Area: Supply and Demand of Petroleum Products in the Asia-Paciic Northern Area: a Supply and Demand of Petroleum Products in the Asia-Pacific Equatorial Area: , Supply and Demand of Petroleum Products in the AsiaPacific Southern Area: * xii -

13 TABLES (Continued) 5.24 Historical World Natural Gas Reserves a Historical World Natural Gas Resenres m World Natural Gas Reserves and Production: 1970-l World Trade in Liquefied Natural Gas: I World Trade in Liquefied Natural Gas: World Petroleum Refining Capacity: World Oil Refining Structure: Processing Plant Capacities in , World Oil Refining Structure: Processing Plant Capacities in World Oil Refining Structure: Processing Piant Capacities in l World Oil Refining Structure: Processing Plant Capacities in l World Oil Refining Structure: Processing Piant Capacities in World Oil Hydroprocessing Capaclty: l World Oil Refining Structure - Distribution of Processing Capabilities: a Historical Complexity of an Average Petroleum Refinery in the United States: I Historical Profitability of a New Large Refinery in the United States Historical Profitability of a New Large Refinery in the United States Assuming No Domestic Control of Crude Oil Prices (1974-l 980) Historical Profitability of a New Large Refinery in Western Europe,., Historical Profitability of a New Large Refinery in the A&Pacific Area (Excluding China) World Ethylene and Propylene Average Rates of Growth World GDP Growth Rates World Ethylene Demand by Region: World Ethylene Supply and Demand: XIII -

14 TABLES (Concluded) World Ethylene Capacity and Capacity Use: 1974-l World Propylene Demand by Region: l 1 World Propylene Supply and Demand: World Propylene Capacity and Capacity Use: 1974-l l 4 Propylene Supply and Demand in the United States: l 7 Propylene Supply and Demand in Western Europe: Propylene Supply and Demand in Japan: l 9 World Naphtha Balance: World Naphtha Balance World Benzene and Paraxylene Average Rates of Growth World Benzene Supply and Demand: World Benzene Capacity: World Benzene Demand by Region: Average Gasoline Pool Characteristics in the United States: Effect of Benzene Limitation in Gasoline on the Use of Toluene Hydrodealkyiation in the United States: Aromatics (Benzene, Toluene, Xylene) Supply and Demand Balance IntheUnitedStates: Aroma&s (Benzene, Toluene, Xylenes) Supply and Demand Balance in Western Europe: Aromatics (Benzene, Toluene, Xylenes) Supply and Demand Balance in Japan: World Paraxylene Demand by Region: World Paraxylene Supply and Demand: World Paraxylene Capacity: 1974-l 992.,..* xiv -