The Outlook for Energy

Transcription

1 The Outlook for Energy a view to 23 Rob Gardner International Energy Forum 15 May 21 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil s latest report on Form 1-K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

2 Importance of Energy 2

3 Your Energy Use EU MENA North America Sub-Saharan Africa Direct 24, Energy BTUs Use per day Vehicle Indirect Energy Use Industry Household Personal Commercial Transport Public Buildings Asia Pacific 3

4 Our Key Energy Challenges Reducing poverty and improving living standards Supporting economic growth Minimizing impacts on the environment Maintaining energy security Development of reliable and affordable energy plus ongoing efficiency gains are essential to meeting these challenges... 4

5 Challenge: Meeting Basic Needs Electricity Modern Cooking/Heating Fuels Available Available ~1.5 Billion People with no Electricity ~ 2.5 Billion People with no Modern Cooking/Heating Fuels 26 World Bank 5

6 Global Economics and Energy Population GDP Energy Demand Billion 1 8 Average Growth / Yr % Trillion 25$ 1 Average Growth / Yr % 8 7 Average Growth / Yr % MBDOE = ~2 6

7 MENA Economics and Energy Population GDP Energy Demand Billion.5.4 Average Growth / Yr % Trillion 25$ 3 Average Growth / Yr % 6 Average Growth / Yr % MBDOE = ~2 7

8 Growing Global Demand By Sector Transportation Industrial Res/Comm PowerGen Energy Savings 1 MBDOE = ~2 8

9 Global Transportation Demand By Sector MBDOE 7 Personal vs. Commercial MBDOE 25 6 Rail 2 5 Marine 4 3 Aviation Heavy Duty Vehicles Commercial Light Duty Vehicles Personal 5 OECD Non OECD Personal Commercial 9

10 Personal Vehicle Fleet is Growing Vehicle Penetration Cars and Population (millions) Fleet by Car Type Million Cars 125 US 25 Advanced US 23 Cars 1 Diesel Europe OECD 25 Population 75 Europe OECD 23 5 Gasoline China China

11 Improving Today s Vehicle Engine % MPG Improvement Aero - Turbo Dynamics Charging Transmission Cylinder Deactivation Light Weight Materials Body & Accessories Camless Valves Improved Tires Total Percent Percent 6 Speed / 7 Speed Continuously A/C Variable Efficiency 11

12 Light Duty Vehicle Technology Electric Vehicle % Efficiency Improvement Well to Wheels Gasoline Equiv. Plug-in Hybrid Assumptions Plug-in Hybrid vs. Conventional Vehicles $k 2 Plug-in Hybrid (PHV) Full-Hybrid & HCCI Conventional Technology Battery cost, $/kwh 8 3 Battery replacements over the vehicle life, # Electricity cost, /kwh $2 / gallon gasoline $4 / gallon gasoline Percent Additional Cost Annual Savings Annual Savings 12

13 Light Duty Vehicles Advanced Cars* Percent of New Sales 5 Average New Car MPG Europe OECD US China India 4 3 Europe OECD India China 2 2 US *Full Hybrids, HCCI, PHV, EV 13

14 Heavy Duty Vehicles Intensity BOE / 25$ k GDP.4 By Region MBDOE 25.3 Non OECD 2 15 Non OECD OECD 5 OECD

15 Global Industrial Demand By Sector By Region Fuel Electricity/ Heat Biomass Coal Non OECD 4 1 Gas 2 5 OECD Oil Heavy Ind Chem Energy Ind Other MBDOE = ~2 15

16 MENA Industrial Demand By Sector 1 8 Industrial Intensity Million BTU / 1 US$ 8 6 Heavy Industry Chemical Energy Industry Use OECD Industrial Heavy Ind Chem Energy Ind Other MBDOE = ~2 16

17 Residential / Commercial Demand By Sector 1 23 Residential Billion Households 3 Residential Global Demand Energy Use MBTU Quadrillion / Household BTUs Electricity/ Heat Solar 4 Non OECD 3 Biomass Coal 2 Residential Commercial OECD Gas Oil 198 OECD 25 Non OECD 23 17

18 Electricity Use is Growing Fast By Sector k TWhr 3 By Region Generation k TWhr 3 Transportation 2 Other Industry Heavy Industry 2 Other Gas Other AP Coal China 1 Commercial Residential Other Oil AP Nuclear Europe 4% Renewables US

19 Electricity Generation Cost US Baseload, Startup Cents/kWhr 2 15 $6 $3 No per CO2 Ton Cost CO2 1 5 Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Coal + CCS Gas + CCS Solar 19

20 MENA Power Generation Electricity by Sector By Fuel By Region k TWhr Other 1.5 Other Industrial North Africa Heavy Industry 1. Commercial 1 Gas Residential Oil Middle East MBDOE = ~2 2

21 Power Generation Fuel Demand United States 12 Europe OECD 12 Asia Pacific Coal Gas Nuclear Oil Renewables

22 Global Energy Demand and Supply By Sector By Fuel Res/Comm 6 5 Wind, Solar, Biofuels Hydro, Geo Biomass Nuclear 4 Industrial 4 Coal 3 Transportation 3 Gas Power Generation 1 Oil MBDOE = ~2 22

23 MENA Energy Demand By Sector By Fuel By Region Res/Comm 5 4 Other 5 4 North Africa 3 Industrial 3 Gas 3 2 Transportation Middle East Power Generation Oil MBDOE = ~2 23

24 Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand Trillion 25$ GDP 6 GDP 4 Demand OECD Trillion 25$ GDP Non OECD

25 Global Energy Demand and Supply Demand and Supply Non OECD 2.8% % 16 OECD.5% 1.5% 2.3% Non OECD 2.2% 9.6% Oil Coal Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro, Geo Wind, Solar, Biofuels Total Energy Growth Energy Savings 1 MBDOE = ~2 25

26 Global Liquids Supply Grows Global Liquids Supply and Demand MBDOE Liquids Demand ~37 OPEC Non-OPEC ~ OPEC Crude ~27 ~28 Biofuels Other Petroleum Canada Oil Sands 25 Supplies Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate Base/Adds 26

27 Gas Supply and Demand Balance United States BCFD Europe BCFD Asia Pacific BCFD BCMD Pipeline LNG Imports Unconventional Conventional LNG: Liquefied Natural Gas 1 BCMD = ~35 BCFD 27

28 Global Energy Demand & CO 2 Emissions Demand Average Growth / Yr % Other CO 2 Emissions Billion Tons 4 3 Average Growth / Yr % Res/Comm Gas Gas Oil Coal 2 1 Transportation Oil Industrial Power Generation Coal MBDOE = ~2 28

29 CO 2 Emissions CO 2 Emissions Billion Tons 4 Emissions per Capita Tons / Person Emissions per GDP Tons / 25$ k GDP Non OECD OECD OECD Non OECD OECD Non OECD 29

30 Transition to Modern Energy / Technology US Energy Demand Percent 1% Canals Personal Vehicles Passenger Flights Hybrid Vehicle 75% Railways & Steamships Rail Freight Road Freight Deepwater & Arctic 5% Coal Mining Electrification Shale Gas Air Conditioning & Oil Sands 25% Wood & Coal Heating Telegraph Oil Prod & Refining Telephone Natural Gas in Homes Nuclear Power Wind Cell Phones & PCs % Wood Coal Hydro Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables Energy Information Agency 3

31 Integrated Energy Solutions 6.7 billion people Now Increase 23 Efficiency Increase Efficiency 8 billion people Global economic linkages Disparate living standards Enormous energy needs Technology Expand Supply Non OECD leads economic growth Less poverty; living standards improve Global energy needs up one-third Environmental gains & concerns Mitigate Emissions Growing technology use & focus Mitigate Emission s Progress on environmental goals Expand Supply Significant advances in technology 31

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