Water Resources Management Plan Annual Review 2013

Transcription

1 Water Management Plan Resources Annual Review 2013

2 Index 1 Overview Introduction The supply demand situation in 2012/ Review of 2012/13 out-turn Report year comparison with dry year scenario Security of Supply Index Progress implementing the final WRMP and review of components Introduction General issues Supply Outage Changes to planned outage Demand Actual per capita consumption Development of the individual household monitor Metering Selective metering Optional metering Leakage Water efficiency Behaviour change Climate Change Headroom and Options Actual headroom in 2012/ Page 2 of 23

3 4.5.2 Options Conclusions Figures Figure Monthly customer demand (excluding exports, Ml/d)... 7 Figure Comparison of annual customer demand and WRMP forecast (excluding exports, Ml/d)... 7 Figure PCC comparison Tables Table Changes in water delivered... 6 Table Rainfall from company records at Alderney treatment works... 8 Table Meter installs overview Appendices Appendix 1 Comparison of 2012/2013 customer demand (excluding large industrial user) with historic (Ml/d) Page 3 of 23

4 1 Overview In November 2009 we published our statutory Water Resources Management Plan (WMRP). Our final WRMP confirmed that we have sufficient resources to meet forecast demands throughout the planning period to 2034/2035 provided that we continue our current policies for managing demand this document is our annual review of the WRMP and has based on regulatory year end outturn data for the period from 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2013 demand decreased again from 2011/2012 with 2012/2013 demands being the lowest we have recorded in the past 15 years and below those forecast in WRMP there were no supply issues in 2012/2013. The summer was wetter than the previous year being one of the wettest on record. This had the effect of driving down demands. It must be noted that late winter and spring were cold but did not significantly increase leakage. we report a Security of Supply Index of 100% for the report year we have made no changes to the components of the final WRMP following its publication in November 2009 the reported outturn figures for 2012/13 are consistent with the final WRMP and therefore there is no need to change any of the forecasts within the plan. Page 4 of 23

5 2 Introduction The Water Industry Act 1991, as amended by the Water Act 2003, places a requirement on all water companies to prepare a Water Resources Management Plan (WRMP). Sembcorp Water published its final WRMP in November 2009, setting out the measures needed to maintain the supply demand balance within the Company supply area over the next 25 years to 2034/35. The Water Act 2003 (Section 37A (5)) also states that: Before each anniversary of the date when its plan (or revised plan) was last published, the water undertaker shall (a) review its plan; and (b) send a statement of the conclusions of its review to the Secretary of State. This document is Sembcorp Bournemouth Water s fourth annual review of the WRMP. The review is based on outturn data from the Company s annual year end regulatory report for the period from 1 April 2012 to 31 March The review has been prepared in accordance with the Environment Agency guidance for undertaking the annual WRMP review 1. The guidance states that water companies should report on the following: Progress on implementing the final WRMP any changes to the components of the final WRMP any actions the Environment Agency and Defra have asked the company to work on following publication of its final plan an overall summary of the supply demand situation. A summary of the supply demand balance situation for 2012/13 is given in Section 3. Progress on implementing the final WRMP and a review of the components of the final WRMP is set out in Section 4. The Company has not been asked to carry out any further work on its WRMP by the Environment Agency or Defra since publication of the final WRMP November Annual review of water resources management plans guidance. Environment Agency (June 2013) Page 5 of 23

6 3 The supply demand situation in 2012/ Review of 2012/13 out-turn The main movements in the components of water delivered in 2012/13, compared with the previous year, are as follows: an on-going increase in pre MLE (maximum likelihood estimate) water delivered to measured households, compared to last year, by 0.61% from 32.7 Ml/d to 32.9 Ml/d against the WRMP forecast of Ml/d. a corresponding decrease in pre MLE water delivered to unmeasured households by 5.08% from Ml/d to Ml/d against the WRMP forecast of Ml/d These data continue the patterns reported in previous years, as shown below: Table Changes in water delivered Change from 06/07 to 07/08 Change from 07/08 to 08/09 Change from 08/09 to 09/10 Change from 09/10 to 10/11 Change from 10/11 to 11/12 Change from 11/12 to 12/13 Measured households +15.8% +4.0% +6.4% +5.3% +1.08% Unmeasured households -15.6% -1.4% -6.8% -2.7% -8.57% Distribution input -0.5% -1.1% -1.0% +0.9% -3.28% -0.88% We have experienced a further reduction in distribution input following the trend we have been seeing in the past, this is clearly illustrated in the graph below, which compares monthly distribution input for all customers (excluding exports and our supply to a large industrial customer) with long term average. Page 6 of 23

7 Figure Monthly customer demand (excluding exports, Ml/d) Total in area demand (exluding exports) Ml/d 95-present Mean 96/97-present Figure Comparison of annual customer demand and WRMP forecast (excluding exports, Ml/d) Dry year Critical period Actual The reduction in demand is partly due to the fact that the summer of 2012/13 was one of the wettest on record and in spite of the cold weather experienced in the spring of 2013 leakage has remained at low levels. Page 7 of 23

8 Furthermore the environmental drought experienced in the early parts of 2012 and subsequent media coverage and increased awareness raising activity carried out by the company during the early part of 2012 have also contributed to the suppressed demands over the past year. We also believe that customers are changing attitudes and behaviour towards water use that this will lead to further reductions in demand over time. 3.2 Report year comparison with dry year scenario For our dry year forecasts we look at summer rainfall and temperature from April- September. In a dry summer we expect to see an increase in temperatures and a decrease in rainfall. These have been shown to increase demand. Table Rainfall from company records at Alderney treatment works Year Annual Rainfall mm Summer Rainfall mm April- Sept inclusive 05/ / / / / / / / The 2012 summer rainfall of mm was higher than both the WRMP dry year rainfall threshold of 225mm and LTA of mm*. Met Office data also showed a mean monthly maximum temperature for April- September during 2012 of ºC, compared with the previous year where it was ºC and a dry year such as 2006 where it was 20.1ºC*. Page 8 of 23

9 * Source: The Met Office Hurn Station 1957-present (Hurn is geographically close to Alderney) 3.3 Security of Supply Index Security of supply in both resource zones are the same as a result of a past successful completion of a link between the Bournemouth and Hale zones. Consumers in Hale now share a 100% SoSI with those in the Bournemouth zone. The SoSI of 100% for both zones is consistent with our FBP/FD supply demand annual outputs. We will not formally treat these as one WRZ until we carry out a thorough review for our next statutory WRMP. Page 9 of 23

10 4 Progress implementing the final WRMP and review of components 4.1 Introduction This section of the annual review reports on progress on implementing the final WRMP and a review of the components of the final WRMP as required by section 6.1 of the Environment Agency guidance. The tables provided in the Environment Agency guidance have been included within this section, to indicate which items are applicable to our review General issues General Comments Water zones resources Any changes to boundaries Requirement triggered by change There have been no changes to the Company boundaries following publication of the final WRMP Level of Service Any changes to the proposed target level of service Requirement triggered by change There have been no changes to the proposed target level of service following publication of the final WRMP Page 10 of 23

11 4.1.2 Supply Supply Comments Deployable output Any changes to deployable output Requirement triggered by change There have been no changes to deployable output following publication of the final WRMP Outage Explain reasons for any outage incidents and any work being done to reduce outage Requirement See section 4.2 Bulk supply Explain any changes to bulk supply agreements Requirement triggered by change There have been no changes to bulk supply agreements following publication of the final WRMP Sustainability reductions Detail any alterations to the sustainability changes required. Requirement triggered by change There are no investigations concerning sustainability reductions within the Company supply area. (changes to existing definite sustainability changes or new definite sustainability changes) Detail any alterations to the sensitivity testing from updates to indicative sustainability changes Report on progress with implementation of Requirement Page 11 of 23

12 sustainability changes 4.2 Outage Outage is defined as a temporary loss of deployable output, and may arise through either planned or unplanned events. Planned outages would result from the maintenance or repair of source works. Unplanned outages may result from pollution of sources, turbidity, nitrates, algae, power failures, and system failures. All outage events are recorded and reported at monthly intervals for each of the Company s water treatment works. The Company s outage assessment is set out in Section 2.4 of the final WRMP. The analysis was based on the observed characteristics of historic events that have affected the output available from each source. On the assumption that such events with similar characteristics could occur in the future and therefore planned outage values at Company level of 5.6Ml/d for dry year annual average and 5.2Ml/d for the critical period (peak week) were derived. The historic events on which the final WRMP outage calculations were based could however re-occur in the future and constrain the output available from any of the source works. There is therefore no justification to change the outage values used in the final WRMP. There were no significant outage events during 2012/13 and total actual outage for 2012/13 has been estimated as 0.04 Ml/d for the peak period and Ml/d for the annual average conditions compared with 2011/12 where we had Ml/d for the peak period and Ml/d for the annual average conditions. Although outage has increased it is at such a low level that it is immaterial to our ability to supply our customers Changes to planned outage There were no changes to planned outage in the report year. Page 12 of 23

13 4.3 Demand Demand Comments Demand forecasting Highlight and explain any changes to the demand forecast. Give details of any change to the data-set used Requirement triggered by change There have been no changes to the demand forecast following publication of the final WRMP Per capita consumption (PCC) Highlight and explain actual PCC over the year Requirement See Section Explain any change to the forecast PCC Requirement triggered by change There has been no change to the forecast PCC following publication of the final WRMP Metering Provide an update on progress with household metering (please distinguish your baseline metering from any included in the final planning scenario) Requirement See Section Leakage Provide an update on progress with leakage reductions (please distinguish your baseline leakage reductions from any included in the final planning scenario) Requirement See Section Water efficiency Provide an update on progress with water efficiency initiatives (please distinguish your baseline water efficiency initiatives Requirement See Section Page 13 of 23

14 from any included in the final planning scenario Actual per capita consumption We have continued to derive information on unmeasured consumption from our company-specific cul-de-sac monitor, initially set up in 1996/97. The estimated consumption by unmeasured households (excluding supply pipe leakage) this year recorded a value of 148 l/h/d against the WRMP forecast l/h/d. This is less than the value reported in the previous year which was 152 l/h/d. This is due the reduction in distribution input explained in more detail in section 3.1. Measured household consumption decreased from 142 l/h/d to 138 l/h/d, this follows our recent trends in PCC as seen in the graph below and falls below the WRMP forecast value of 167.l/h/d. Per capita consumption values are calculated using the population numbers and occupancy rates forecast by Experian in our WRMP in conjunction with actual measured and unmeasured property counts. Figure PCC comparison L/h/d UMPCC MPCC Forecast UMPCC Forecast MPCC Development of the individual household monitor For some years we have been developing an individual household monitor (IHM) to be used to calculate unmeasured household PCC. However this monitor has not been used in this round of planning due to problems with data and equipment. Progress has been made rectifying the problems with the monitor. The uncertainty in results has been caused by self-selection of participants during the original recruitment, general attrition to measured Page 14 of 23

15 billing and issues with both the data logging devices and associated equipment. We are in a process of identifying properties that are causing the suspected bias in the results obtained from the IHM. We are also replacing the logging equipment that has affected the recording of flow. The following actions are being carried out in the coming year: o o o o o analysis of all IHM properties and selection of properties to be included in the monitor replacement of faulty equipment; due to problems with equipment a large number need replacement. once data has been collected from properties with the new equipment an analysis will be carried out to determine any adjustments that are needed to account for the faults selection of a sub set of properties within the IHM to identified and used for the micro component monitor re-survey of all properties on the household monitor for occupancy and micro-component ownership and frequency of use. Before using any data from the IHM we need to ensure we have rectified all issues and that we fully understand the results. Currently we cannot say that we have this assurance and understanding so we have continued to use our existing consumption monitor from the 27 cul-de-sac areas as this has produced consistent, reliable results. We will incorporate IHM results when we have that same level of confidence. Page 15 of 23

16 4.3.3 Metering Below we provide a breaking comparing the number of meters installed with the previous year Table Meter installs overview Meter Project Overview to date Reason for metering 11/12 12/13 Meter Options Target Meter Options Actual Selective meters Target Selective meters Actual Target Totals Actual Totals Selective metering We are continuing to fit meters on change of occupier. We also have a policy of metering customers who we know have prescribed high water usage items such as power showers and swimming pools. The number of selective meters has increased. This year we have installed 1457 against an Ofwat target of We believe this is due to new methods of surveying properties. We have publicised our policy through: regular articles in our newsletters our website metering-related literature Optional metering The number of optional meter installations is again less than expected. This year we have installed 1815 meters compared to our Ofwat target of We believe that this is because customers are unwilling to take the chance of ending up with larger meter bills in the current economic climate Page 16 of 23

17 We have been consistent with our household metering policies since the start of the AMP3 period in In addition to promoting household meter options and installing meters in all new houses, we also fit meters to households on change of occupier. This allows us to move more quickly to a measured customer base, which will bring benefits to customers in terms of fairness of charging, and further benefits in terms of sustainability, demand management (particularly in relation to peak demands) and the ability to use tariff signals Leakage Total leakage for the year was 20.7 Ml/d, compared with the Ofwat target of 22.0 Ml/d. This is below the WRMP forecast leakage value for 2012/2013 of Ml/d Water efficiency We have achieved the statutory water efficiency targets of saving 1 litre per property per day or 0.19 Ml/d for 2012/13. Our focus for the past year has once again been on household hot water use and education. By targeting hot water use we hope to help customers reduce both water and energy use in the home. The energy use component of hot water is of particular importance as it provides an incentive to customers not on a meter to become more efficient. We feel that until all customers are metered it will continue to be difficult to incentivise customers to use water more efficiently. We believe that the link between hot water use and energy will encourage more customers to take up our water efficiency offers as it combines the elements of saving water, saving energy and reducing carbon emissions. We continue to offer free devices to customers. We offer shower and tap flow restrictors, save-a-flush bags and shower timers. These are offered to customers as a bespoke water efficiency pack where customers select the items that they want. We continue to see a low uptake of the water efficiency offer form our customers we are in the process of developing a new water efficiency strategy that focusses on improved communication with customers. We are also trying to shift our emphasis from giving free devices to customers to working on bigger scale initiatives with housing associations and local authorities. Education Delivery of our Waterwise Presentation to Primary Schools in our supply area, which we started in the summer of 2010, has continued in a very successful fashion and by the end of 2012 had been watched by over children The presentation integrates with sections of Key Stages 1 & 2 of the national curriculum as well instilling in our future adults the importance of using water wisely! The delivery program is designed so that each child will see the presentation twice, once as an infant and then later on in years 4, 5 & 6. In addition we have now created a presentation suitable for key stage 3 students and we hope to trial it in secondary schools this summer. Feedback from the class teachers whose children have seen the presentation is universally favourable, but the best indication we have of our objective being achieved comes from individual parents who tell us that their children are now Page 17 of 23

18 policing their home water usage! In addition the schools themselves have been able to include these presentations as part of their Schools Eco Awards. As well as offering schools our Waterwise Presentation we continue to build our relationship with local schools in other ways. For example in July this year 15 year 9 girls from Avonbourne School visited our Alderney Treatment Works as part of their business enterprise week. They were given a tour of the site and received talks from us on our operation in general and on the importance of reducing water consumption. They were then set an enterprise problem namely How can SBW engage with its customers to encourage them to use water wisely, effectively reducing consumption and therefore the environmental impact of water. Last autumn we involved secondary schools in our customer engagement. Ofwat had intimated that they expected water companies to engage with future customers during the PR14 process. We felt that the most effective way of obtaining a large number of future customer opinions was to ask local secondary schools to assist. We were very grateful that 8 schools agreed to take part and we had over 1000 surveys completed by years olds. And of course whilst they were completing the surveys they were focussed on something which they previously had taken for granted. We consider time spent with schools an excellent way to, not only get involved with the local community, but also to ensure that efficient use of water becomes second nature to our next generation of customers We use the assumptions provided in the UKWIR calculation spread sheet for the assumed savings from these activities Behaviour change The impact of water efficiency promotions is difficult to measure. We are confident that we are helping to change customers views toward use of water by promoting water efficiency messages. This has contributed to, we believe, the lower peaks in demand experienced in past years. This year we once again incorporated water savings tips and a self audit in our Water Matters newsletter that went out to all customers in spring 2012, this included an offer for free water efficient devices. We delivered copies to all domestic customers including indirectly metered customers which include those customers who are supplied through a bulk meter such as found at a mobile home park. We promote water efficiency to our domestic customers by means of the following: the in-bill Your Water Company 2012/13 booklet press releases and advertisements in the local press our website (which includes all the information provided in the literature given out to customers talks to local special interest groups Page 18 of 23

19 local energy and environment exhibitions Joint promotions with other water companies i.e. Waterwise SWAN network. In addition to these measures our website has links to water efficient devices, water efficiency information and a home self-audit. We also attended events and give talks to schools and community organisations to promote metering and water efficiency. We have distributed copies of Your Water, a publication we have had printed explaining water treatment from start to finish, and how it should be used wisely. These are given to all recipients of our water efficiency programme to re-enforce the message of the session. We distributed information on water efficiency, free low flow shower heads and save-a-flush bags at all water efficiency talks and events. In addition to these measures we show non-metered customers the size of a projected bill for their homes based on average consumption for the number of occupants living there compared with their current bill to see if there are any financial benefits of them having a meter. Page 19 of 23

20 4.4 Climate Change Climate change Comments Impact on supply Provide an update on the forecast impact on supply from climate change. Requirement triggered by change No change; New analysis has been conducted for WRMP 14 all sources remain license constrained 4.5 Headroom and Options Headroom and options Comments Headroom Give details of actual headroom Requirement See Section Any changes in actual headroom and target headroom Requirement triggered by change There have been no changes to forecast available headroom or target headroom following publication of the final WRMP Options Progress with the planning and delivery of all options Requirement No options were required in the final WRMP. See Section (Include all options in the final planning scenario. For example additional supply or demand options; sustainable economic levels of water efficiency (SELWE), selective metering, additional leakage control options) Page 20 of 23

21 Any changes to the options chosen Requirement triggered by change No options were required in the final WRMP Actual headroom in 2012/2013 Planned levels of headroom for 2012/13 are stated within the final WRMP tables (tables WRP4-FP) as 49.02Ml/d for the dry year annual average scenario and 35.26Ml/d for the critical period scenario The value in the 2013 year end return is reported as 51.98Ml/d for the dry year annual average scenario and 33.47Ml/d for the critical period compared with 50.2Ml/d and 32.9Ml/d the previous year. The actual values are therefore in line with the planned headroom allowances included in the final WRMP. No changes to the final WRMP are required Options The baseline supply-demand balance presented in Section 6 of the final WRMP shows that the Company has sufficient supplies to meet forecast demands throughout the planning period to 2034/35, provided that we continue with our present policies for managing demand that we have consistently followed since the late 1990s. It follows that no new measures are needed either to reduce demand or to increase resources during the planning period. We will continue to fit meters where customers opt for them, and where customers move into a house without a meter, and by so doing we expect to meter almost all households by 2028 we must continue to keep leakage at or below its Ofwat target level (recognising that the targets may change in the near future); and we will continue to promote and implement measures to improve the efficiency of water use where it is economic and cost-effective to do so. 5 Conclusions This review confirms that demands continue to remain low as can be seen from measured and unmeasured household per capita consumption there have been no issues regarding supply in 2012/2013 which was wetter and cooler than the average dry year scenario Page 21 of 23

22 Security of Supply index has been reported as 100% the company has made no changes to the components of the WRMP following its publication in November 2009 the reported outturn figures for 2012/2013 are consistent with the final WRMP and there is no need to change any of the forecasts within the final WRMP. Date: Prepared By: GWP Page 22 of 23

23 Appendix 1 Comparison of 2012/2013 customer demand (excluding large industrial user) with historic (Ml/d) April June August October December February 1995/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /13 Page 23 of 23