Renewables for Africa and for the World
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- Ethelbert Barnett
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1 RENEWABLE ENERGY Renewables for Africa and for the World Paul Simons Deputy Executive Director International Energy Agency SAIREC, Cape Town, 5 October 2015
2 Profound changes underway in energy markets Signs of decoupling of energy-related CO 2 emissions and global economic growth Oil prices have fallen precipitously, raising questions over the competitiveness of renewables But policy drivers for renewable electricity energy diversification, local pollution and decarbonisation remain robust Renewables are key to the unprecedented pledges ahead of COP 21 Renewables to become first source for electricity in the longer term, but addressing policy uncertainty in the next five years is crucial
3 Gt CO 2 -eq IEA strategy to raise climate ambition Peak in emissions (Bridge Scenario) Global energy-related GHG emissions Savings by measure, INDC Scenario Bridge Scenario Upstream methane reductions Renewables investment Fossil-fuel subsidy reform 15% 17% 10% 9% 49% Energy efficiency Reducing inefficient coal Five measures shown in a Bridge Scenario achieve a peak in emissions around 2020, using only proven technologies & without harming economic growth
4 GW Renewables are becoming the largest source of new power generation capacity World net additions to power capacity main case Fossil fuels Nuclear Hydropower Non-hydro renewables Analysis from the IEA Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2015 and the New Policies Scenario of the World Energy Outlook Renewables set to account for almost two thirds of global net capacity growth over the medium-term
5 Deployment shifting to emerging markets and developing countries Shares of net additional renewable capacity, India 9% Brazil 5% Africa 4% Rest of non-oecd 9% EU-28 13% United States 9% Japan 5% Rest of OECD 8% China 38% As the OECD slows, non-oecd countries account for two-thirds of renewable growth, driven by fast-growing power demand, diversification needs and local pollution concerns
6 2010 = 100 More renewables for less money 160 Global indicative generation costs for new plants Onshore wind Solar PV - utility scale Offshore wind High levels of incentives are no longer necessary for solar PV and onshore wind, but their economic attractiveness still depends on the regulatory framework and market design
7 Evidence of lower costs on the horizon Recent announced long-term contract prices for new renewable power Onshore wind Utility-scale solar PV Germany USD /MWh Germany USD 96 /MWh United States USD 47/MWh United States USD 65-70/MWh Canada USD 66/MWh Turkey USD 73/MWh China USD 80 91/MWh India USD /MWh Brazil USD 81/MWh Brazil USD 49/MWh Jordan USD 61-77/MWh United Arab Emirates USD 58/MWh Chile USD 85-89/MWh Uruguay USD 90/MWh South Africa USD 51/MWh South Africa USD 65/MWh Egypt USD 41-50/MWh This map is without prejudice to the status or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area Australia USD 69/MWh A combination of price competition, long-term contracts, good resources and financial derisking measures is creating deployment opportunities in newer markets and at lower costs
8 GW Enhanced policies can get renewables growth back on track to meet climate goals World renewable power annual capacity additions, main vs. accelerated case Historical Accelerated Forecast case United States Japan Japan EU-28 EU-28 Other Other OECD OECD India IndiaChina China Brazil Brazil Other non-oecd Other non-oecd Main case Enhanced policies can accelerate global deployment by 25% with better domestic policies and more coordinated action
9 Africa is rich in resources Oil OilGas Oil Oil Gas Fossil fuels Oil Co al Ga s Wind Hydro Solar In the last 5 years, almost 30% of global oil & discoveries were in sub-saharan Africa; the region has vast untapped renewables potential, notably hydropower & solar OECD/IEA 2014
10 Renewables can power Africa s economic growth TWh Sub-Saharan Africa power demand growth versus supply sources Other Power renewables demand growth Hydropower Fossil fuels With huge resources, improving cost-effectiveness and policy momentum, renewables account for almost two-thirds of demand growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
11 Decentralised renewables could improve electricity access and reliability Share of population with access to electricity: More than 50% Less than 50% No information Nigeria 100 million without access Ethiopia 75 million without access Urban 38% Urban 4% Rural 62% Rural 96% Sub-Saharan Africa requires electrification solutions tailored to population density. Affordable small-scale solar PV can help access in rural areas and improve reliability in urban zones.
12 USD/MWh (Real Apr 2015) South Africa s successful renewable IPP programme BW1* 2011 BW2* 2012 BW BW Diesel OCGT OCGT (existing) Solar PV Wind *Bid windows of the Renewable energy Independant Power Producer Procurement programme Competitive auctions for long-term power purchase agreements combined with good resources have delivered low prices in just a few years
13 Cumulative additions (GW) In Sub-Saharan Africa, renewable growth could accelerate by 60% Hydropower Onshore wind Offshore wind Solar PV STE Geothermal Bioenergy Ocean Accelerated Case Accelerated deployment could be achieved with increased access to affordable finance for planned pipelines as well de-risking the investment climate and clarifying power sector regulations to attract new commercial entrants.
14 Generation Prices Deployment Africa can leapfrog to growth based on more affordable renewables Policy priorities change over time Initiation Take-off Mainstreaming Predictable and rapidly adaptive incentives Focus on noneconomic barriers Manage total support costs System integration Market design and expose RE to competition Public acceptance International benchmark prices Time Key Objective Policy Priorities Critical Mass Reduce Costs System Integration Clear regulatory framework Secure financial support Cost convergence with international benchmarks Introduce competition Develop flexible energy system Market reform
15 A decisive moment for the future of renewables Increasingly affordable renewables are set to dominate the growing power systems of the world The impact of the lower oil price environment on global deployment of renewables is limited in particular for the power sector While variability of renewables is a challenge energy systems can learn to adapt to, variability and unpredictability of policies pose a larger threat Accelerated growth of renewables to meet energy security and access, air quality and climate protection goals is feasible Africa can leapfrog to economic development based on affordable clean power by addressing persistent barriers; improving financing conditions; clear and predictable policies and good governance
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