The UK new build programme status and lessons learned Dr Ron Cameron

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1 The UK new build programme status and lessons learned Dr Ron Cameron 1 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide

2 Outline 1. The history of new build 2. Current status and challenges of large nuclear 3. Small modular reactors is this a better way? 4. Lessons learned and conclusions 2

3 SHORT HISTORY 1995 Last new build completed (Sizewell B) closure of nuclear laboratories and creation of NDA (2004) 2003 The UK can see no role for nuclear in its future energy policy (White Paper) 2006 Nuclear will be an essential element of Britain s energy policy for the future (Labour government) National Policy Statement for Nuclear (EN-6) July 2011 Strategic Site Assessment. The following sites are potentially suitable for the deployment of new nuclear power stations before the end of 2025: Bradwell; Hartlepool; Heysham; Hinkley Point; Oldbury; Sizewell; Sellafield; and Wylfa. 3

4 Continued Political Support for Nuclear This also marks the next generation of nuclear power in Britain, which has an important part to play in contributing to our future energy needs and our longer term security of supply. (Oct 2013) 4

5 UK New Nuclear progress 5 New Build Process Identified existing sites for new build nuclear expansion Site Owner New Building Hinckley EDF 3.2GW Sizewell EDF 3.2GW Wylfa Horizon 3.3GW Bradwell EDF 3.2GW/1.6GW Oldbury Horizon 3.3GW Sellafield NDA 3.3GW Heysham EDF 1.6GW Hartlepool EDF 1.6GW All the companies in new nuclear build are looking for investment partners as they will have to raise billion. Identification of 8 sites for new build. Auctioning of the sites. Creating an environment for investment by the private sector. 1. Reform of the electricity market. 2. Negotiation of a strike price and a contract for difference. HPC 92.5/MWh 3. Confirming equity partners by the vendors and the size of the debt financing. 4. Loan guarantees for covering debt financing UK government confirmed in September 2015 a 2 billion loan guarantee for Hinkley Point C. During the Chinese State visit in 2015, an agreement was signed between EDF and CGN on equity financing (66.5%, 33.5%). This agreement also covers Sizewell C and Bradwell. 5

6 Financing new build 6 China's President Xi added, "This is a flagship project of cooperation between our countries in recent years, and it will lead to more practical cooperation of this kind." British Prime Minister David Cameron said, "We are signing an historic deal to build the Hinkley nuclear power station, providing reliable, affordable energy for nearly six million homes and creating more than 25,000 jobs, all the while working together to build a low-carbon future.

7 UK New Nuclear progress Identified existing sites for new build nuclear expansion Site Owner New Building Hinkley EDF 3.2GW Sizewell Site EDF Owner 3.2GW New Building Wylfa Hinckley Horizon EDF 3.3GW 3.2GW Bradwell Sizewell EDF EDF 3.2GW/1.6GW Oldbury Wylfa Horizon 3.3GW Moorside Bradwell NuGen EDF 3.3GW 3.2GW/1.6GW Heysham Oldbury EDF Horizon 1.6GW 3.3GW Hartlepool Sellafield EDF NDA 1.6GW 3.3GW Heysham EDF 1.6GW Hartlepool EDF 1.6GW All the companies in new nuclear build are looking for investment partners as they will have to raise billion. Overview of market and players New Nuclear Policy has (had!) strong cross-party support within UK Government, evident in the National Policy Statements and Parliamentary votes. Three consortia are currently developing new nuclear projects in the UK. 1. NNB Generation (EDF). GDA completed. Tier 1s announced. FID in Oct Anticipated HP start date Horizon Nuclear Power (Hitachi). At step 4 of GDA, completion date EPC Contract agreed with Bechtel/JGC. Possible Wylfa start date NuGen (Toshiba/Engie). GDA assessment follow-up issues. Purchased Moorside site. EPC Contract in formation Westinghouse/Fluor. Possible start date GW of proposed new build in planning 7 stages across 8 sites.

8 Energy and Climate Policies Nuclear Industrial Strategy Civil Nuclear as a driver for growth via Building UK nuclear capability; Renewing Innovation and R&D; Expanding exports; Developing skills Becoming globally competitive. Overseen by Nuclear Industry Council 8 8

9 HPC in numbers EPR design providing low carbon electricity for around 5 million homes. Can avoid 9 million tonnes of CO 2 emissions a year. Capable of generating 7% of the UK s electricity. At least 25,000 different job opportunities during construction and 5,600 on site at the peak. 100 million into the regional economy each year during peak construction 900 operational staff and contribution of around 40 million to the regional economy during each year of its 60 year operation. 9

10 UK CONTENT GOAL OF 60% UK Content in New Build Type of equipment Very unlikely Specialised nuclear island equipment especially heavy components Possible with upskilling, FDI or partnerships PARTNERSHIPS SUPPORTING UK INDUSTRY High technology components and safety critical equipment Very likely Construction, services, non-safety critical equipment and ancillaries 10

11 Key Challenges for large nuclear The huge scale of the investment for a private investor The unwillingness of the UK government to provide equity The unwillingness of institutional investors to finance nuclear The need for energy and industrial policy to be integrated Development of skills to support new build The capability of the local supply chain to take advantage of the new build opportunities 11

12 What is different in SMRs compared with large reactors? Economy of scale vs. Economy of serial production The absolute cost of one reactor is smaller than for large reactors i.e. expected to be easier to finance Modular construction Tasks that used to be performed in sequence are done in parallel with factory-built modules o Already implemented in some large reactors (e.g. AP1000) o But in case of SMR the module could be the entire reactor system Redundancy of production unit: o Better flexibility (outages) Potential co-generation (water desalination, heat production) o The power output of SMRs suits well existing heat and water distribution network o Multiple modules redundancy guarantee of continued supply Decommissioning: Potentially smaller costs if modules are replaceable and factory disassembled/decommissioned 12 12

13 TYPES OF SMRs There are a number of SMR concepts that can be characterised into seven reactor families: Light Water Reactors (LWRs), including Pressurised Water Reactors (PWRs) and Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs); High Temperature Reactors (HTRs); Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors (SFRs); Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs); Gas-cooled Fast Reactors (GFR); Supercritical Water Reactor (SCWR); Lead-cooled Fast Reactor (LFR). All reactor families fall between TRL 3 and 7 and are likely to need between 10 and 25+ years to deploy within the UK regulatory regime. 13 The dilemma for the UK is the balance between technology readiness (leading to early deployment) and IP availability (offering better UK content opportunities). 13

14 Any specific technology choice severely limits the available market NNL 2013 Market size assessment GW by 2035 (as shown above), valued at bn

15 15 NNL 2Study suggests price competitive with a large reactor. Previous studies have not. 15

16 The Current UK Approach to Developing an SMR 1. The NNL report in The DECC analysis of available SMRs, their deployability, siting and timescales (2014-6) 3. The Treasury announces 250 m for SMRs and research (2015). 4. The UK SMR competition (2016-7) 5. The UK Roadmap to 2030 (expected late 2016 or early 2017) 6. Current status being delayed by new government. 16

17 Conclusions and Lessons Learned 1. The current structure of liberalised markets effectively exclude large nuclear build 2. Hence there cannot be large nuclear build without significant government support either directly (China, Korea, Russia, UAE etc) or indirectly (UK, US) 3. The capital cost of large nuclear is a formidable hurdle that is still not resolved in the UK. 4. An SMR programme could satisfy the UK s industrial policy while being much more likely to attract finance. 5. However whoever builds the FOAK incurs many additional costs and in the UK this is still not looking likely until SMRs offer the best opportunity for Australia if the many political and public acceptance hurdles could be overcome. However these would not be operational until well after

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