Concentrations of several of these greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O and CFCs) have increased dramatically in the last hundred years due to human

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1 Global Warming 1.1 The facts: With no atmosphere surrounding the earth the surface temperature would be 17 o C. However, due to the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that absorb infrared radiation emitted from the surface, the earth is some 33 o C warmer than without its atmosphere, with a mean surface temperature of 15 o C.

2 Concentrations of several of these greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O and CFCs) have increased dramatically in the last hundred years due to human activity.

3 1.2 The concentration of CO 2 has increased by 32% from 1750, with 25% of that increase occurring since The two largest man-made sources of CO 2 emissions are the burning of fossil fuels and the changing of the vegetation cover of the planet via agriculture and deforestation. The lifetime of CO 2 in the atmosphere is approximately 120 years.

4

5

6 Brazil Tropical Deforestation Less Vegetation = More CO

7 1.3 The concentration of CH 4 has increased by nearly 200% since The main anthropogenic sources of CH 4 are landfills, cattle farming, rice farming, natural gas use, and biomass burning. Although the lifetime of CH 4 is less than CO 2 (approximately 12 years), each molecule is 20 times as efficient at absorbing heat emitted from the earth s surface.

8 CH 4 sources World cattle population and consumption

9 1.4 The concentrations of N 2 O have increased by 20% since The main sources of man-made N 2 O are from fertilizers used for agriculture, and emissions from cars. Although the increase in N 2 O concentrations appears to be small, each molecule of N 2 O is 200 times more efficient at absorbing infrared radiation relative to CO 2.

10 1.5 CFCs did not exist 100 years ago, and their concentrations are increasing at the fastest rate from all the greenhouse gases. CFCs are used in refrigerators, air conditioners, as cleansing agents, and to produce foam products. Their lifetime is on the order of 100s of years, with each molecule of CFC being 10-15,000 times more efficient at absorbing infrared radiation (hence the use in air conditioners and fridges).

11

12 Greenhouse Gas Lifetime (years) ~120 CO 2 ~12 CH 4 ~115 N 2 O CFC-11 CFC-12 CFC-13 ~45 ~100 ~640

13 +36% +192% +25%

14 1.6 Two additional greenhouse that are increasing in the atmosphere are CO and tropospheric O 3.

15

16 2.1 Lessons from the past: Paleoclimatic reconstructions of the earth s climate in the past indicate that the climate of the earth is very sensitive to changes in the CO 2 concentrations of the atmosphere.

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18 390ppm

19 Warmer periods were also associated with higher levels of other greenhouse gases, such as CH 4, in the atmosphere.

20 During the warmest period of the Pliocene, when the CO 2 levels were estimated to have been twice that of pre-industrial concentrations ( ppm), the climate of the earth was very different from the present. 2.2 During 3 prominently warm periods in the earth s past (Mid-Holocene 6000 yr BP, the Eemian 125,000 yr BP, and the Pliocene optimum 4 million yr BP) there was a significant high-latitude warming with relatively small changes at low latitudes.

21 3 Theoretical Calculations (climate models): Although theoretical models have many problems, simulations for warmer climates in the past (and future) show three consistent trends. 3.1 Global temperature changes: When greenhouse gas concentrations are increased in these models (to simulate past and future climate), all models show a global warming of a few degrees for a doubling of CO 2 from pre-industrial times.

22

23 Figure TS.23

24 In addition, all models show a high-latitude amplification in the warming due to the snow-ice albedo feedback. In other words, the models predict the high latitudes will have a larger temperature increase than the tropical regions.

25 All models predict that positive feedback processes will outway negative feedback processes, doubling the warming that would occur if only from greenhouse gas increases. The primary positive feedback is due to increases in water vapor (a natural greenhouse gas) in the atmosphere as a result of increased evaporation from the oceans.

26

27 3.2 Precipitation changes: All climate models predict increased total rainfall in a warmer climate due to increased evaporation from the oceans. Increased rainfall does not necessarily mean wetter surface conditions, since increased rainfall is accompanied by increased evaporation from soils and vegetation.

28 3.3 Sea level rise: All models predict that the thermal expansion of sea water, together with the melting of glaciers and ice caps, will result in increases in sea level. The sea level changes depend on the magnitude of the warming.

29

30 4. Observations: 4.1 Temperature: Measurements of surface air temperatures indicate a global warming over the last 100 years in both the northern and southern hemispheres, with the warming being more uniform in the southern hemisphere. The global mean warming is estimated to be approximately 0.8 o C over the last 100 years. The warming has generally been largest in the winter months and concentrated at high latitudes, in agreement with model predictions. Ten of the hottest years on record have occurred since and 2014 were the hottest year on record!

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32 IPCC (2007)

33

34

35 Decadal mean surface temperature anomalies relative to base period

36

37

38

39 2000

40 Arctic sea ice area at warm season minimum

41 GRACE Gravity Satellite Melt descending into a moulin, a vertical shaft carrying water to ice sheet base. Greenland Ice Melt in Summer Ice Sheet Mass Measurements Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK) Greenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice Sheet

42

43 4.2 Although the precipitation records are more variable, analysis of raingauge data from around the world indicates a general increase in precipitation, with the largest increases in mid-latitude continental regions. This is in overall agreement with model calculations.

44 4.3 Sea level over the last 100 years has risen ~20 cm, which is consistent with warming rates observed.

45 5 Predictions for the future: Given the present trends of human activities on the planet together with the rapid growth of the world s population, there is no reason to believe that these increasing trends of greenhouse gases will decrease in the future. The concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere is expected to double by the middle of the century (2050).

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47

48 5.1 Climate models predict a global warming of 1-4 degrees as a result of a doubling of CO 2 in the atmosphere. This warming will continue as long as the concentration of greenhouse gases increases in the atmosphere.

49 Figure SPM.5

50 IPCC (2007) Figure 11.4 תחזיות של טמפרטורה עד שנת 2100 באזור הים התיכון

51 Changes in the % of rainfall by 2099 A1B=moderate growth

52 Rising Sea Level

53 5.2 The changes in temperature will lead to changes in precipitation patterns and sea level that will have ramifications in areas such as: Human health, Agriculture, Forest, Water Resources, Coastal communities and habitats.

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55 2003 Heat wave in Europe Distribution of summer temperatures in Switzerland

56 Fires Are Increasing World-Wide Western US area burned Wildfires in Western US have increased 4-fold in 30 years..

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58

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60

61

62 6. Solutions to the problem: Due to the predicted doubling of the world s population by the middle of the century, and the future demand for energy in the developing nations, any reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, especially CO 2, will simply delay the problem.

63 6.1 Slowing the buildup of greenhouse gases may give us time to find solutions. *Reduction of Greenhouse Gases: - Use Natural Gas - Energy Efficiency Efficiency Natural Gas

64 6.2 The only long term way of preventing the buildup of CO 2 in the atmosphere, is to invest in the development and use of alternative energy, as well as reforestation. *Removal of Greenhouse Gases: - Reduce Deforestation, Increase Biomass - Alternative Energy Sources

65 Wind power has been too expensive until recently. However, Germany and Denmark are developing new technologies to cheaply harness wind s energy. Solar Power is also fairly expensive today, but the efficiency of solar cells is increasing while the costs are decreasing, and solar energy may be a partial solution in some parts of the world.

66

67 Hydroelectric power is the cleanest and least expensive source of alternative energy, although it is not available and not possible to generate in all parts of the world. Nuclear Power is a very clean source of energy, and is used in many places around the globe. The only problem with Nuclear Power is what to do with the radioactive waste (problem). Other options: Biomass, ocean thermal energy conversion, geothermal energy, tidal energy and wave energy.

68 Fuel cells and Hybrid cars generate electricity by hydrogen molecules reacting with Oxygen to produce electrons and water using fuel such as ethanol. The electrons provide current for the car and emit water vapor. These cars would reduce greenhouse gas emissions to zero.

69 If all else fails. Geo-Engineering?

70 CO 2 Management Solar Radiation Management

71 BioChar: Pyrolysis is a thermochemical decomposition of organic material at elevated temperatures in the absence of oxygen

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73 Carbon Capture and Sequestration

74 Ocean Fertilisation

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76 Cloud seeding of low oceanic clouds

77 More cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) result in smaller drops, which results in higher albedo, and whiter clouds, that cools the surface.

78 Ship Tracks

79 Sulfur Injection into Stratosphere

80 (Surface temperature difference from present day during June, July and August with the 2 CO2 simulation and the geoengineering simulation using 2 Tg S/ yr emission (which is not sufficient to entirely balance the greenhouse warming).

81 The Space Option

82

83 Homework IPCC report Climate in Peril, UNEP (2009)

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