DG in the US: Recent History and Future Trends

Transcription

1 DG in the US: Recent History and Future Trends Dan Seif, Managing Director September 28, rd Annual Electricity Reform in Mexico Conference

2 Historical DG Generation % % Annual Gen. (TWh) Natural Gas - Industrial Non-hydro renewables (Primarily Biomass) - Industrial All Other Non-solar - Industrial Solar - All DG Sectors 1.5% % of Annual US Gen % % US DOE EIA & SEIA GTM data 0.0% 20

3 Historical DG Generation Flat for decade % 2.0% Annual Gen. (TWh) Natural Gas - Industrial Non-hydro renewables (Primarily Biomass) - Industrial All Other Non-solar - Industrial Solar - All DG Sectors 1.5% % of Annual US Gen % % US DOE EIA & SEIA GTM data 0.0% 20

4 Historical Natural Gas Spot Price Index Natural Gas Price Henry Hub ($/MMBTU) High Prices + High Volatility Source: Macrotrends.net

5 Historical DG Generation Flat for decade % 2.0% Annual Gen. (TWh) Natural Gas - Industrial Non-hydro renewables (Primarily Biomass) - Industrial All Other Non-solar - Industrial Solar - All DG Sectors Modest boom 1.5% % of Annual US Gen % % % 20

6 Historical Natural Gas Spot Price Index Natural Gas Price Henry Hub ($/MMBTU) Low Prices + Moderate Volatility Source: Macrotrends.net

7 Flat for decade 80 Historical DG Generation Flat- ish again? 2.5% 2.0% Annual Gen. (TWh) Natural Gas - Industrial Non-hydro renewables (Primarily Biomass) - Industrial All Other Non-solar - Industrial Solar - All DG Sectors Modest boom 1.5% % of Annual US Gen % % % 20 US DOE EIA & SEIA GTM data

8 Historical Natural Gas Spot Price Index Natural Gas Price Henry Hub ($/MMBTU) Very low Prices + Low Volatility Source: Macrotrends.net

9 Industrial Natural Gas DG Rationale: C on-site + F + S < T + (C utility generators + E) + H

10 Industrial Natural Gas DG Rationale: C on-site + F + S < T + (C utility generators + E) + H Realization: C on-site + F + S < T + (C utility generators + E) + H

11 Industrial Natural Gas DG Rationale: C on-site + F + S < T + (C utility generators + E) + H Realization: C on-site + F + S < T + (C utility generators + E) + H C on-site + F + S < T + E + H

12 Industrial Natural Gas DG Rationale: C on-site + F + S < T + (C utility generators + E) + H Realization: C on-site + F + S < T + (C utility generators + E) + H C on-site + F + S < T + E + H C on-site + F + S < T + E

13 Historical DG Generation % % Annual Gen. (TWh) Natural Gas - Industrial Non-hydro renewables (Primarily Biomass) - Industrial All Other Non-solar - Industrial Solar - All DG Sectors 1.5% % of Annual US Gen % % % 20 US DOE EIA & SEIA GTM data

14 Historical DG Generation % % Annual Gen. (TWh) Natural Gas - Industrial Non-hydro renewables (Primarily Biomass) - Industrial All Other Non-solar - Industrial Solar - All DG Sectors 1.5% % of Annual US Gen % Solar boom 0.5% % 20 US DOE EIA & SEIA GTM data

15 ~4 GW / ~$8B per Year DG Solar Installation Rate Source: SEIA GTM

16 US Solar DG Current Market Drivers Low Cost Net Energy Metering Federal Tax Benefits Financing Solutions: Third-Party Ownership (TPO) and Solar Loans

17 US Solar DG Current Market Drivers Low Cost Net Energy Metering Federal Tax Benefits Financing Solutions: Third-Party Ownership (TPO) and Solar Loans

18 Low Cost of DG Solar Source: SEIA GTM

19 US Solar DG Market Drivers Low Cost Net Energy Metering Federal Tax Benefits Financing Solutions: Third-Party Ownership (TPO) and Solar Loans

20 Net Energy Metering Source DC State-mandated NEM Utility-dependent NEM Non-NEM compensation 38 States + DC, AS, USVI, & PR have mandatory Net Metering rules AS PR

21 US Solar DG Market Drivers Low Cost Net Energy Metering Federal Tax Benefits Financing Solutions: Third-Party Ownership (TPO) and Solar Loans

22 Federal Tax Benefits Only for TPO; 0% for Direct Ownership Only for TPO Source: DSIREUSA Source: Heatspring

23 US Solar DG Market Drivers Low Cost Net Energy Metering Federal Tax Benefits Financing Solutions: Third-Party Ownership (TPO) and Solar Loans

24 Third Party Ownership Allowed Disallowed Legality Uncertain Source: letsgosolar.com

25 Projected Growth 10% CAGR Source: SEIA GTM

26 Challenges & Opportunities Ahead for DG Solar Value of Solar-based metering / Loss of Net Energy Metering Wholesale power market (ISO/RTO) participation & aggregations Solar + Storage Direct utility-ownership & rooftop PPA programs International trade and tariffs

27 DG Storage Forecast All Storage ~75% of DG storage growth with DG solar Sources: GTM Research Solar + Storage

28 German and Australian DG Storage Examples ~150% higher-than-us per capital installation rate ~600% higher-than-us per capital installation rate

29 Summary US DG growth dominated by natural gas CHP and generators from Solar now dominate US DG market Many new regulatory and business model dynamics affecting the path forward for DG solar. Storage poised to be a significant DG growth market, with combined installs with solar being a primary growth pathway

30 Thank You / Gracias