Feasibility of Renewable Energy Based Distributed Generation in Yanbu, KSA

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1 Feasibility of Renewable Energy Based Distributed Generation in Yanbu, KSA Alaa Alaidroos Moncef Krarti, PhD, PE, LEED AP University of Colorado at Boulder Building Systems Program

2 Outline Electricity demand in Saudi Arabia Impact of electricity price subsidies Case study of residential community Available renewable energy resources Analysis of distribution generation systems Selected results Conclusions and summary

3 Energy Demand in Saudi Arabia Increase of electricity demand: 46,000 MW to 120,000 MW within 20 years. Over 1/4 of the oil production in Saudi Arabia is consumed by the country it self! Effect of local energy consumption growth: 1. Affect future economy (jeopardize the ability of exporting oil) 2. Increase CO2 emissions 3. Indicate inefficient use of energy

4 Impacts of Electricity Prices Subsidies Average cost of electricity production is 0.10 $/kwh. Average cost of electricity for residential users is 0.03 $/kwh. Saudi Arabia is the second largest country subsidizing fuel and electricity prices. 70% of the oil consumption is subsidized leading 30% to electricity use is subsidized These subsidies result in cheap energy for users but are costing Saudi Arabia about $188 billions per year (?) High Electricity Price Subsidies Preventing RE/EE investments

5 Case Study Objectives Investigate the feasibility of utilizing hybrid renewable energy systems to partially cover high electricity demand of residential community and supplement and/or replace the traditional power plants Environmental benefits by reducing CO2 emissions Economical benefits by lowering electricity costs and reducing reliance on fossil fuel

6 Case Study background Small residential community in Yanbu, an industrial city in Saudi Arabia. The residential community includes 200 homes

7 Energy Resources (Wind) Wind speed profiles match the significant energy demand for space cooling Monthly Hourly

8 Energy Resources (Solar) Annual solar radiation in Saudi Arabia is about 250 w/m2 105 trillion kilowatt hours a day, which is roughly the equivalent of 10 billion barrels of oil

9 HOMER simulation Analysis of DG Systems PV system sizes: 500 and 1000 kw Number of wind turbine: 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 (150kW Nordex N27 turbines)

10 Selected Analysis Results CO2 emission vs COE Renewable fraction vs COE Wind energy can reduce CO2 emissions dramatically compared to PV at the same cost of energy (COE) level Wind energy provides higher renewable fraction than the PV system at the same cost of energy (COE) level

11 Selected Analysis Results Wind speed vs COE PV cost vs Rebate level COE for wind energy at actual wind speed is slightly higher than the COE from the grid (subsidized electricity rate) COE for PV is competitive with subsidized grid electricity rate when a rebate level of 80% or higher is applied to the PV initial costs

12 Influence of Subsidies On RE Feasibility If subsidies for electricity prices are reduced, distributed generation using renewable energy systems becomes economically feasible

13 Summary and Conclusions High energy demand growth in KSA is affecting the economy and significantly increasing CO2 emissions Renewable energy can be economically feasible in KSA but high subsidies (low electricity prices) are preventing investments in renewable energy generation and efficiency improvements Wind energy provide higher renewable fraction and potential for reduction of CO2 emissions than PV PV can be cost effective only if there would high rebate level and support from the government (similar to the current level applied for the cost of oil)

14 Hybrid Distributed Generation Systems in Rural Alaska Lindsay Willman Moncef Krarti, PhD, PE, LEED-AP Building Systems Program University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado Photo: wind turbines in Unalakleet, Alaska

15 Over 150 isolated electrical grids Coal Wind Diesel Majority of rural areas rely on diesel Natural Gas Hydroelectric and diesel

16 Communities: Mountain Village, Deering, and Ambler Community Mountain Village Population Electricity Generation (kwh/yr) Diesel Fuel Use (gal/yr) CO 2 Emissions (t/yr) 813 2,799, ,184 1,920 Deering ,319 55, Ambler 258 1,249,161 89, Stand-alone electrical grid Electricity and heating source: diesel

17 Electricity and Diesel Fuel Prices Community Mountain Village Deering Ambler Standard Electricity Rate ( /kwh) PCE Subsidy ( /kwh) PCE Electricity Rate ( /kwh) Community Diesel Fuel Price ($/gal) Mountain Village $3.16 Deering $4.69 Ambler $3.75

18 Electrical/Thermal Loads Community Average Electric Load (kw) Average Thermal Load (kw) Peak Electric Load (kw) Peak Thermal Load (kw) Mountain Village 303 2, ,846 Deering ,232 Ambler 139 1, ,439

19 Deering: 5.22 m/s Ambler: 3.60 m/s Mountain Village: 7.28 m/s

20 Annual Average Community Solar Radiation (kwh/m 2 /day) Mountain Village 2.80 Deering 2.61 Ambler 2.58

21 Mountain Village Analysis Results Optimal System Wind- Diesel- Battery Wind- Diesel- Battery Wind- Diesel- Battery Diesel- Battery Turbine Capital Cost ($/kw) Initial Capital ($) Total NPC ($) COE ($/kwh) 4,000 1,887,500 44,168, ,000 2,082,500 44,776, ,000 1,787,500 45,186, ,000-15, ,500 45,315,

22 System Baseline and Hybrid System Comparison Electricity Production from Diesel (kwh/yr) Diesel Fuel Use (gal/yr) CO 2 Emissions (t/yr) Baseline 2,799, ,184 1,920 Hybrid 1,748, ,164 1,199 Savings 1,050,773 71,

23 Sensitivity Analysis Diesel-battery system Wind-dieselbattery hybrid system

24 Levelized Cost of Energy ($/kwh) Wind-PV-diesel hybrid system COE: $0.381/kWh, REF: 0.46 Percent Reduction: 35.6% Wind-diesel-battery hybrid system COE: $0.23/kWh, REF: 0.5 Percent Reduction: 44.3% Percent Reduction in CO 2 Emissions

25 Deering Analysis Results Optimal System Wind- Diesel- Battery Wind- Diesel- Battery Diesel Turbine Capital Cost ($/kw) Initial Capital ($) Total NPC ($) COE ($/kwh) 4, ,750 20,786, , ,750 20,981, ,000-15, ,992,

26 Ambler Analysis Results Optimal System Diesel with heat recovery Initial Capital ($) Total NPC ($) COE ($/kwh) 0 28,494, Cost of energy for hybrid wind-diesel systems: $0.311/kWh - $0.876/kWh

27 Conclusions Wind and solar DG systems can lower the COE for remote Alaskan communities COE highly dependent on wind turbine capital cost, diesel fuel price, and site characteristics Detailed site analyses needed to accurately determine capital costs Photo: wind turbines in Kodiak, Alaska