Mitigating Health Consequences of Climate Change Sten H. Vermund, MD, PhD

Transcription

1 Mitigating Health Consequences of Climate Change Sten H. Vermund, MD, PhD Yale School of Public Health

2 Global threats to the environment of human origin Global climate change (originally known as global warming, but renamed by a political lobbyist) Direct human effects Hotter and drier summers (heat related deaths) Warmer and wetter winters (loss of polar/glacial ice) Increased extreme weather (adverse events)* Property (especially coastal) and crop loss Loss of fish (ocean biodiversity) starting with loss of reef ecosystems *Net Hurricane Power Dissipation Highly Correlated w/ Tropical Sea Surface Temp. Nature 2015 *Increased Sea Surface Temperatures and Greater Hurricane Intensity. Science 2005

3 3 rd of the 17 th hottest years in the past 137 years have been since 2001 (17 th in 1998). Hottest 3 years were 2016, 2012, and 2017.

4 Spitzbergen/Norway Siberia Alaska Canada Since 1979, size of summer polar ice cap has shrunk >40%

5 Debate: Deforestation vs. global warming. Result in either case, malaria in the foothills

6 Thermohaline Circulation The ocean is a vast heat store and North-South, East-West circulator Atlantic current: Meridional overturning circulation (MOC)

7 Evidence for global climate change Irrefutable and overwhelming Analogous to smoking and lung cancer, HPV and cervical cancer, asbestosis and mesothelioma, HIV and AIDS Scientists who disagree are nearly all on the payrolls of interested parties, e.g., fossil fuel industry Major climate change denial experts are mostly paid lobbyists without any scientific background

8 Most obviously, direct effects threats Heat-related morbidity and mortality well documented, notably in heat waves of defined time period Elderly, Poor, Homeless, Infants Water-shortage areas Decreased population adaptability to heat documented over time, but not to cold Arbuthnott K, et al. Changes in population susceptibility to heat and cold over time:. Environ Health 2016; 15 Suppl 1:33.

9 Some countries and regions are especially vulnerable to direct climatological events

10 Alliance of Small Island States aosis.org Members Antigua and Barbuda Bahamas Barbados Belize Cape Verde Comoros Cook Islands Cuba Dominica Dominican Republic Fiji Fed. States of Micronesia Grenada Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Jamaica Kiribati Maldives Marshall Islands Mauritius Nauru Niue Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Singapore Seychelles São Tome and Principe Solomon Islands St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia St. Vincent and the Grenadines Suriname Timor-Leste Tonga Trinidad and Tobago Tuvalu Vanuatu Observers American Samoa Netherlands Antilles Guam U.S. Virgin Islands Puerto Rico

11 Implications of rising sea levels Displacement of coastal communities Disturbance of agricultural activity Coastal erosion, beach loss, decline in tourism Intrusion of sea water into freshwater aquifers Complete underwater disappearance of islands, many of them previously occupied The Bahamas, Kiribati, the Maldives, Tuvalu, Torres Strait Islands (between Australia and PNG), Solomon Islands The Marshall Islands (NY Times, Dec.1, 2015) Micronesia (Nunn PD, et al. Identifying and assessing evidence for recent shoreline change attributable to uncommonly rapid sea-level rise in Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia, Northwest Pacific Ocean. J Coast Conserv 2017;21:719.)

12 Kennedy Space Center Areas subjected to inundation w/ 1 m rise in sea level Everglades and FL Keys Miami Source: Corell RW, 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment ( Cambridge University Press

13 v Global warming: may affect storm formation and intensity (e.g., hurricanes, cyclones, tornados) How? As temperatures rise, more and more water vapor evaporates into the atmosphere fuel for storms More heat and water in the atmosphere combined w/warmer ocean surface temperatures increases the wind speeds of tropical storms Analogous phenomena with temperature inversions can drive tornados Droughts and floods also facilitated

14 Hurricane Sandy: Oct Record rain, wind, and storm surges. 23,000 homeless and 8.5 M no power in NJ, NY, and 12 states Costs incurred within just one year $1.4 B in Individual Assistance provided to >182,000 victims $2.4 B in low-interest disaster loans approved by the SBA >$7.9 B in National Flood Insurance Program payments made FEMA approval for $3.2 B for emergency response and rehab.

15 Costs of Extreme Weather Events

16 Spread of vector-borne diseases Mosquito-related infections Malaria Dengue Fever, Yellow Fever, Zika virus West Nile, EEE, SLE, Bourbon virus Chikungunya, other arboviruses Other vector-related infections Filariasis/Onchocerciasis (Blackflies) Schistosomiasis (Snails) Hantaviruses (Rodents) Trypanosomiasis (In Africa, tsetse fly; In Americas, Reduviid bug)

17 Malaria in the highlands of Africa

18 Tick-borne infectious diseases Greater distributions and longer tick seasons Lyme disease Rocky Mountain spotted fever Babesiosis Ehrlichiosis and Anaplasmosis Relapsing Fever Tularemia

19 Water-borne diseases Cholera Typhoid fever Diarrheal diseases: bacteria, virus, parasite Enteric parasites: warm, moist soil maturation Sanitation-related: hookworm

20 Population Growth Pressure around Lake Victoria

21 Shrinkage of Lake Chad Persistent drought & water diversion has shrunk the lake to about a tenth of its former size In 1972, a larger lake surface area is visible with 2001 lake as indicated on the next slide

22 Aral Sea is shrinking, as did Lake Chad & California s Mono Lake

23 Education (especially girls/women) Unmet need for family planning (and improved maternal/child survival) Sustainable economic empowerment

24 Research, Policy, Education, Action Global Climate Change Loss of Biodiversity Overpopulation

25 Policy/Action to stabilize CO 2 Atmospheric Levels Efficient Transportation Energy Conservation Sustainable Energy Sources Sustainable Land Use Population Stabilization Economic incentives (cap and trade; carbon credits) Political change and commitment Moratorium on fossil fuel exploration Massive shift to alternative energy sources Commitment to conservation, e.g., mass transit, LEED buildings, policy shifts (68⁰F. in winter, 72⁰F. in summer)

26 Mitigation Emergency responses and planning Heat waves, drought, extreme weather Flooding refugee relocations Anticipatory work Ocean barriers Air cooling/hydration planning for vulnerable populations Prior relocations Re-forestation, not de-forestation Control of air and water pollution Vector control; water and hygiene Family planning to meet unmet needs

27 Yale Climate Change and Health Initiative Director: Prof. Rob Dubrow