Understanding risks and its transboundary nature in the Hindu Kush Himalayas

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1 Understanding risks and its transboundary nature in the Hindu Kush Himalayas A presentation based on the HIMAP report chapter prepared by: Ramesh Ananda Vaidya, Mandira Singh Shrestha, Nusrat Nasab, Deo Raj Gurung, Kozo Nagami, Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Robert James Wasson, Arun Bhakta Shrestha, Chanda Gurung Goodrich, Ajay Bajracharya. Neera Shrestha Pradhan, PhD, MSc, BE (Civil) Programme Coordinator- Integrated Water Resources Management for Livelihood Development Water and Adaptation Specialist neera.pradhan@icimod.org International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu, Nepal

3 Cumulative disaster events Disaster statistics from in the HKH region The region has had an average of 76 disaster events each year. Source: EM-DAT The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

4 Mountain communities in the HKH live in a multi-hazard environment Number of events People killed Economic Losses On average, more than 36,000 people are killed and 178 million affected each year due to natural disasters in the region. Source: EM-DAT; (cumulative)

5 Primary hazards may be geophysical or hydrometerological-may trigger secondary hazards Type of hazard Primary Secondary Earthquake Landslides Landslide Flood Landslide dam and subsequent outburst flood Landslide dam and subsequent outburst flood Landslide dam and subsequent outburst flood Occurrence 2005 Kashmir earthquake in Pakistan and India 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal 2014 Nepal: Jure landslide that dammed the Sunkoshi river 2010 Pakistan: Hunnza Attabad landslide 2008 China: Landslide-dammed lake at Tangjiashan, Sichuan province Erosion& deposition 2008 Koshi floods in Nepal, India

When disasters hit the HKH, they affect more women than men During the 1991 cyclone in Bangladesh, the mortality rate for women was three times higher than for men (UNEP 1997; Twigg, 2009) During the

6 When disasters hit the HKH, they affect more women than men During the 1991 cyclone in Bangladesh, the mortality rate for women was three times higher than for men (UNEP 1997; Twigg, 2009) During the 2015 Nepal earthquake, more women than men died in all the affected districts except Kathmandu (Golam et al., 2015) Records of natural disasters in the Himalayan region over the last few decades show that women are at greater risk of dying than men (Mehta, 2007) Koshi,Nepal Flood, 2008 This is the result of women s lack of information, mobility, decision-making power, and access to resources and training, as well as gender-based sociocultural norms and barriers, conventional gender responsibilities, and high rates of male outmigration.

7 Increasing trend of disasters in the HKH is threatening sustainable development Number of events reported Economic loss (US$ in millions) Economic loss of US$597 billion occurrence total damage Source: EM-Dat Database Climate change is magnifying risks and increasing disaster losses (UNISDR 2015): Need for regional cooperation

8 Transboundary rivers shared vulnerability across borders Globally, 10% of all floods are transboundary, and they cause over 30% of all flood casualties and account for close to 60% of all those displaced by floods. Source: Bakker, 2006

9 One-third of the natural disasters are floods Frequency People impacted Source: Ilalem and Pal, 2014 Source: Nellemann et al., 20111

10 american.edu/ted/ice/terai.html IndiaLookUp.in tp://imgur.com/gallery/k3rkh revintcan.files.wordpress.com Some recent floods in HKH Koshi Indus Assam Baghlan Uttarakhand Nepal, Bihar

boundaries to increase lead time; The integration of risk information into EWS is still weak;

11 Key issues (related to flood) A diversity of technical, scientific, and institutional capacity exists in the region; There is limited exchange of real-time data especially across national boundaries to increase lead time; The integration of risk information into EWS is still weak; Investment in EWS is low and of less priority; There are opportunities for sharing knowledge, experiences and know-how.

System in the HKH-Region - Timely exchange of flood data and information through an accessible and

12 HKH-HYCOS: Setting up monitoring stations and establishment of real-time flood information systems Making Information Travel Faster Than Flood Waters Establishment of a Regional Flood Information System in the HKH-Region - Timely exchange of flood data and information through an accessible and user friendly platform HYCOS is a vehicle for technology transfer, training, and capacity building

13 Regional flood outlook Setup of a real-time forecasting system for Ganga- Brahmaputra Basin 21 nodes included for flood outlook in GB- basin with 3 days lead time

Implemented in river tributaries 2.Upstream/downstream linkage 3.

14 UNFCCC s Momentum for Change 2014 Lighthouse Activity Award Winning Initiative Community based flood early warning system 1.Implemented in river tributaries 2.Upstream/downstream linkage 3.Almost real time information 4.Provide guidance on how to act 5.Use of low cost ICT tools

Immediate Impact on the ground Assam, India My fellow villagers like me because I am the source of all the

Hoonmoni Doley, Caretaker, Dihiri I have a hatchery and harvest fingerlings for livelihood.

Osman Ali, Barsola 2 After the instrument was installed we have peaceful sleep because of the early flood

15 Immediate Impact on the ground Assam, India My fellow villagers like me because I am the source of all the information. I feel important now and panchayat also listens to me. Mrs. Hoonmoni Doley, Caretaker, Dihiri I have a hatchery and harvest fingerlings for livelihood. That one hour of early flood warning makes all the difference to ensure that my investments are safe. Osman Ali, Barsola 2 After the instrument was installed we have peaceful sleep because of the early flood information, which gives us enough time to take action to save our assets even at night. Local resident, Barsola 2 Saved assets, including livestock, worth approximately USD 3,000 Sept 2013, Dihiri

16 Four elements of CBFEWS More than just a prediction 1. RISK KNOWLEDGE AND SCOPING Systematically collect data and undertake risk assessments and scoping 2. COMMUNITY BASED MONITORING AND EARLY WARNING Install early warning instrument and flood monitoring by upstream communities 3. DISSEMINATION AND COMMUNICATION Communicate flood information by upstream and provide early warnings to downstream communities 4. RESPONSE CAPABILITY AND RESILIENCE Enhance community response capabilities and build resilience Source: Based on UNISDR, 2006,

17 (1) Wireless community based flood early warning system Afghanistan Nepal

18 Function Transmitter Unit Receiver Unit

19 (2) Community based flood early warning system with telemetry Transmitter Unit Alarm Receiver Unit

20 Conceptual diagram 10/31/

21 12 August 2017, Ratu River An example of local level cross border cooperation between Nepal and India Before flood After flood in Bardibas Nepal Flood situation in Bhittamore, Bihar Livestock shifted to safer places India School building serving as shelter

build resilience and reduce deaths from natural disasters in mountain regions

22 A vision for mountain DRR to complement Sustainable Development Goals 2030 To complement the relevant formal SDGs, we propose the following vision for mountain DRR: By 2030, build resilience and reduce deaths from natural disasters in mountain regions substantially through informed decision making and enhanced preparedness. Source:

23 Four targets to support the mountain DRR vision 1. Reduce economic loss, human deaths, and the number of people affected due to disasters and extreme climate events, especially for women and children [SDG 5, 13]. 2. Make human settlements and habitats safe, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable through laws, education, capacity building, better zoning and building regulations, and a multi-hazard risk reduction approach [SDG 9, 11, 13]. 3. Assure protection from exposure to extreme events such as floods and droughts [SDG 1, 13]. 4. Provide access to DRR and mitigation measures, including finance and technology, with the knowledge and capacity building needed to use them [SDG 13]. Source:

24 Thank you

Regional Cooperation for Flood Disaster Mitigation in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region

Regional Cooperation for Flood Disaster Mitigation in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Khumaltar, Lalitpur, P.O. Box 3226, Kathmandu, Nepal Tel: