SCIENCE FOR RESILIENCE SCIENCE AS CRITICAL TO JAMAICA S RESILIENCE BUILDING STRATEGY
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1 SCIENCE FOR RESILIENCE SCIENCE AS CRITICAL TO JAMAICA S RESILIENCE BUILDING STRATEGY
2 The premise... Extreme climate sensitivity which translates into pervasive vulnerability Size, location and topography ensures climate influence always present & inescapable. Jamaica: small islands surrounded by Caribbean Sea with hilly interior. All major infrastructure located on limited coastal plains. Narrow economic zone.
3 The premise... Extreme climate sensitivity which translates into pervasive vulnerability Extreme climate sensitivity i.e. climate is an integral part of everyday existence. Economy (Agriculture including fisheries & Tourism) Health and Wellbeing (dengue and asthma) and Critical livelihood sectors (Water, Energy) bound up with climate
4 The premise... Extreme climate sensitivity which translates into pervasive vulnerability Because the sensitivity is pervasive (across all sectors/areas of life) so is the vulnerability.
5 The approach... The pervasive nature of the vulnerability demands an approach which is. of necessity: Multi-pronged Insight Planning Capacity building Collaboration Policy Innovation Science Education & behavioural change
6 The approach... JAMAICA S DELIBERATE INCLUSION OF SCIENCE IN THE QUEST FOR RESILIENCE IS PREMISED ON: 3 Reasons
7 Why Science? Science makes the case for: 1 Why we must act...
8 Because Jamaica s temperatures are increasing 1 Day time temperatures Night time temperatures Stephenson et al (2014) ~ 0.8 degree rise since pre-industrialized times.
9 Because Jamaica's Rainfall Patterns are changing 1 CSGM (2012) Nature of Jamaican rain is changing (variable). Some places getting wetter, some getting drier.
10 Because Jamaica has seen an increased occurrence of Extreme Events Changing climate leads to changing weather and extreme events.
11 Because Jamaica s sea Levels are rising 1 Negril Tree 2003 tree line 2003 base of beach 1971 tree line 1971 base of beach 200 m Marine Geology Unit, UWI: Sea levels are rising at ~3.5 mm/yr (post 1993)
12 1 Why Science? Science makes the case for: Why we must act... Climate change is real for Jamaica and therefore so is our vulnerability 2 When we must act...
13 1 Projecting future climate... 2 Storylines Models Future Climates
14 Now, because Jamaica s temperatures will continue to get hotter... Mean Temps 1 Present Future 2 By mid 2020s- mid 2030 every year (in the mean) will be warmer than hottest year felt to date. Climate departure!! Mora et al. (2013) puts it at 2023
15 Now, because Jamaica s rainfall will become more variable and less Drying : 25% -30% by 2100 Still variable! McSweeney et al (2008) & Campbell et al. (2010):
16 Now, because hurricanes will likely be more intense Number of simulated storms remains the same but more intense, with higher rainfall rates and increased maximum winds. Bender et al (2010):
17 Now, because Jamaica s sea levels will continue to rise Impacts from a 2m SLR on Jamaica - UNDP/CARIBSAVE (2010) 1. Land area lost (1% of Jamaica). 2. People displaced (1% Jamaica). 3. Damage or loss to power plants (20% in Jamaica) 4. Tourism resorts damaged or lost (18% Jamaica). 5. Loss or damage of airports (60% Jamaica). 6. Loss of roads (2% Jamaica). 7. Loss or damage to port structures (100% Jamaica)
18 1 2 Why Science? Science makes the case for: Why we must act... Climate change is real for Jamaica and therefore so is our vulnerability When we must act... Now! Climate will continue to change and therefore our vulnerability will grow 3 How we must act...
19 1 As if we know climate change will Impact our Agriculture Current Suitability Maps Ginger s s 27% less suitable CIAT (2011) 19
20 As if we know it will impact our coastal infrastructure and settlements Caribsave (2012)
21 As if we know it will Impact our Tourism and biodiversity Aggregate cost of sea level rise and acidification: blue A2; red- B2 Boxill et al. (2011) Change in relative abundance of specie in Hellshire Hills Stephenson et al. (2014)
22 1 2 3 Act in targeted ways informed by the science: Mitigation efforts to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, either by reducing them at source or by creating sinks for the gases. Adaptation recognizes the inevitability of present and upcoming change and advocates pursuing options to facilitate living with the changed climate Education providing information and engendering behavioural change
23 1 2 Why Science? Science makes the case for: Why we must act... Climate change is real for Jamaica and therefore so is our vulnerability When we must act... Now! Climate will continue to change and therefore Jamaica s vulnerability will grow 3 How we must act... In a targetted, evidenced based manner so that the real, growing vulnerabilities of Jamaica are addressed Informed Timely Transformational
24 1 2 3
25 IN SUMMARY Jamaica s quest for resilience is premised on a pervasive vulnerability due to extreme climate sensitivity Jamaica s approach has been a multipronged and multi-stakeholder approach, including academia and science. Science makes the case for why, when and how action is to occur. It is helping to ensure informed, timely and transformational action.
26 Thank you
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