API Automotive/Petroleum Industry Forum Alessandro Faldi

Transcription

1 API Automotive/Petroleum Industry Forum Alessandro Faldi April 17, Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading Factors Affecting Future Results in the Investors section of our website at This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

2 Global Trends Continue to Evolve Growth from 2016 level Percent x GDP +25% demand +1.7 billion people +10% CO 2 emissions -45% CO 2 intensity

3 Global Efficiency Limits Demand Growth Energy demand Quadrillion BTUs Share of primary energy demand by region Share of Quadrillion BTUs Other Non-OECD Energy savings Rest of World Other AP Non-OECD India China India China Other OECD Europe OECD OECD United States

4 Energy Demand Varies by Sector Primary energy demand by sector Quadrillion BTUs Other renewables Biomass Nuclear '16 '25 '40 Coal Gas Oil

5 Focus on Growth Sectors Liquids Demand Reflects Economic Growth & Efficiency MBDOE Versatile Gas Competes in Every Sector BCFD Power / Res/Comm Other Industrial 500 Transportation 80 Chemicals 400 Res/Comm Chemicals 60 Commercial Transportation 300 Other Industrial Heavy Industry Electricity Generation 20 Light Duty

6 Transportation Demand Driven by Commerce Transportation demand MBDOE Growth Index Rail 2016 Marine GDP Aviation Heavy duty Commercial Light duty Light duty

7 Global Transportation Energy Mix Evolves Demand by fuel MBDOE Other Natural gas Jet fuel Fuel oil Diesel Gasoline

8 Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes Powertrain Technology Million Vehicles Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell Hybrid Natural Gas & LPG Diesel Gasoline North America Europe China India Other AP Middle East Latin America Rest of World

9 New Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency New Vehicles by Type Million Average New Vehicle Efficiency On-Road Miles per Gallon Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell Hybrid Natural Gas & LPG Diesel Gasoline Europe Global Average 20 U.S

10 Policy and Consumer Choices Impact Demand Electric vehicles grow rapidly Million cars Liquids demand remains resilient MBDOE Total liquids demand Plug-in hybrids Battery electrics Light-duty liquids demand Shaded ranges are indicative of potential shifts in demand relative to base Outlook

11 Hypothetical Electric Vehicle Sensitivity Liquids demand by sector MBDOE Energy-related CO 2 emissions Billion tonnes Light duty transportation Sensitivity liquids demand Global emissions Outlook Sensitivity Commercial transportation Chemicals Power generation Other industrial Power generation / Residential / Commercial Light duty transportation

12 Supply Highlights Technology Gains Liquids supply by type MBDOE Natural Gas supply by type BCFD Biofuels Other liquids 600 NGLs LNG Tight oil Oil sands Deepwater 400 Pipeline Conventional crude and condensate 200 Local Production

13 Technology Expands Recoverable Resources Crude & condensate technically recoverable resources Trillion Barrels Recoverable gas resources are abundant and widespread Thousand TCF Remaining resource Remaining resource Cumulative production Cumulative production Sources: USGS, IEA Source: IEA

14 Energy Mix Shifts to Lower-carbon Fuels Global energy mix Percent Energy-related CO 2 emissions peak Billion tonnes Other renewables Wind/Solar Nuclear Gas Middle East Africa Latin America Russia/Caspian Other Asia Pacific Oil China Europe Coal North America

15 Emissions Vary with Policy Ambition Global energy-related CO 2 emissions Billion tonnes Assessed Baseline scenarios 2018 Outlook for Energy Assessed 2 o C scenarios Baseline and 2 o C scenarios based on Stanford EMF27 full technology scenarios EMF27-FT cases include CO 2 emissions from energy and industrial processes

16 Technology Key to Reducing Societal Costs of 2 o C Pathway Costs borne by society to lower GHG emissions High policy costs Hypothetical ~2 o C policy / technology frontier Technology advances likely to reduce costs of policies on society Low policy costs Technology advancement Existing Advances Breakthrough (e.g. natural gas, wind, solar) Policy / Technology matrix is illustrative only (e.g. negative emissions, storage, CCS, advanced biofuels)

17 Two Paths to CO 2 Reduction United States Generation Share Percent Germany Generation Share Percent CO 2 Intensity of Generation g CO 2 /kwh generation 100% Oil Other Renewables 100% Wind & Solar 75% Nuclear 75% % Gas 50% % 25% Coal 0% % United States Germany Sources: EIA, UBA 17

18 Global Demand 2040 by fuel Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr Fossil fuels remain dominant 0.7% 0.9% Oil growth driven by commercial transportation and chemicals % -0.1% 1.6% Hydro / Geothermal Gas demand led by electricity & industrial needs Solar / Wind / Biofuels Renewables grow in powergen Biomass Policy shifts and consumer choices greatest uncertainties Nuclear Technology provides opportunities and manages uncertainty risk

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20 Additional Charts

21 Transportation Fuel Mix by Region Asia Pacific MBDOE North America MBDOE Europe MBDOE 30 Other Natural Gas 20 Fuel Oil Jet Fuel Diesel Gasoline

22 Renewables and Gas Capture Growth Change in net delivered electricity Thousand TWh Wind / Solar share of delivered electricity Share of TWh Solar capacity Wind capacity '40 Solar '16 Wind North America Europe Asia Pacific Middle East Africa World

23 The Energy Challenge 2040 Global Demand: Outlook vs. IEA Scenarios Quadrillion BTUs 800 Renewables 600 Nuclear Gas 400 Oil 200 Coal IEA CP IEA NPS 18EO IEA SD Source: Estimates based on IEA World Energy Outlook 2017 and 2018 Outlook for Energy; includes adjustments to common basis

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