Bulgaria: Forecast for the Future of Nuclear Energy in the National Energy Mix
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1 Bulgaria: Forecast for the Future of Nuclear Energy in the National Energy Mix Ivan Hinovski, Anton Ivanov Bulgarian Energy and Mining Forum IAEA Technical Meeting TM Role and Sustainability of Nuclear Power in the National Energy Mix, Including the Long Term Operation of NPPs June 2016, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
2 Content Recent energy trends in Europe Bulgarian nuclear power sector Maintaining sustainable energy mix National concept for new energy projects: Terms of references Terms of references additionally for new nuclear build Infrastructure for new nuclear projects Plans for new nuclear reactors Case study: Bulgaria toward June,
3 Recent energy trends in Europe Continuous declining of electricity & natural gas consumption since 2015 Overproduction of electricity in EU since 2015 and in 2016 Capacity mechanism - EU recommendations Decarbonisation as first priority 2015:Nuclear acknowledge officially as an option in EU energy policy after COP June,
4 Bulgarian nuclear power sector Two VVER 1000 reactors under operation commissioned in 1989 and 1992 with plans for lifetime extension Four VVER 440 reactors - under different stages of decommissioning Two operational interim storages for Spent Nuclear Fuel one of pool type and the new one of dry type Well developed engineering infrastructure for RWM with planed construction of National Disposal Facility for LILRW Gained unique experience in VVER decommissioning June,
5 Maintaining sustainable energy mix Current electricity mix in Bulgaria provides sufficient base and peak load generators Electricity generation in Bulgaria for % 3% 4% 11% 33% Nuclear Coal Hydro 46% Wind PV Natural gas Considerable competition between subsidized (RES & CHP) and market oriented generators Plans for electricity production in next 10 years - to maintain current generation balance, changes by June,
6 MW Maintaining sustainable energy mix -2 Assessment of capacity management by Peak Load 6000 Investments New Capacities Biomass Onshore wind Solar Small Hydro Large Hydro Gas-fired capacity Other coal-fired capacity Lignite fired capacity Nuclear The needs for investments in Bulgarian energy sector after 2025 will increase significantly in order to maintain availability of capacities for covering the internal demand June,
7 National concept for new energy projects : Terms of references Energy sector in Bulgaria was formed as state undertaking but in last few years the driving forces for new projects are changed. Now it is expected that the new projects should be: economically viable without direct or indirect state support; sufficiently mature to be appraised on a global or local basis; of national added value and consistent with EU policy priorities-capacity mechanism; attracting private sector financing and ensuring cross-border effect. operated on regional market respecting grid code requirements June,
8 Terms of references additionally for new nuclear build (1) The highest level of safety is inherent nuclear reactors characteristic but the new nuclear projects in EU should meet few new general requirements The general EU policies with importance for new nuclear build Competitive market / cross border supplies Diversification of fuel supplies No long term PPA or state guarantee Viable project financing End life cycle management become even more important in project planning Mature nuclear reactors of generation III are available for the EU power market but their integration in the electricity market face significant challenges June,
9 Terms of references additionally for new nuclear build (2) New project proposal shall demonstrate as well : Security of supply and efficiency of the fuel cycle that will minimise operational expenses and avoid threat of fuel shortages Application of high level safety standards that would endure the long term regulatory requirements Clear solutions for decommissioning and spent fuel management on design phase that can provide firm financial provisions in long term Ability to meet the initial project budget frame and the planned construction period June,
10 Infrastructure for new nuclear developments -1 The plans for development of new nuclear projects in Bulgaria enjoy well developed basic infrastructure: Established legal and financial framework for all stages of nuclear power life cycle Competent nuclear regulatory body Management skills for erection, construction, commissioning and operation of nuclear power facilities June,
11 Infrastructure for new nuclear developments-2 Reliable grid and cross-border connections, EU plans for capacity extensions Education, training and engineering support for all stages of nuclear power life cycle June,
12 Infrastructure for new nuclear developments-3 Advantage Bulgaria: Available financial mechanism for market price differences compensation(established in 2016 Fund for power sector insurance ) Acquired equipment for the nuclear island of one VVER 1000 MW unit: completed arbitrage NEK Atomstroyexport Open contract issues with W: AP-1000 as 7 th unit in KNPP June,
13 Plans for new nuclear build in Bulgaria Following the basic national strategic lines for future use of nuclear power, 2 licensed sites are under consideration for nuclear builds: NPP Kozloduy site, one unit AP1000 NPP Belene site, two units VVER 1000 Danube River NPP Kozloduy site Romania NPP Belene site Bulgaria 11th Platts Annual Conference, May
14 Case study: Bulgaria toward 2050 Possible scenarios in the new Energy strategy: BEMF expert forecast Declined electricity consumption with more than 25% - replaced consumption of electricity for household heating with natural gas and industrial energy efficiency measures Electricity generation structure: KNPP/33,4% ТPP/39,5% CHP/12% Renewables/15,1% 2030 г (new renewables, biomass & biogas) (new NPP ) (mixed biomass) 2050 г (new renewables, energy conservation, (biomass prevailing) demand side management )
15 Thank you for attention! Ivan Hinovski, Anton Ivanov, Bulgarian energy and mining forum 1000 Sofia, 4, Trapesitza Str., Entr.4, Floor 4 ihinovski@bulenergo.com
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