Recovered Paper Market Trends
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- Osborne Owen
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1 Recycle Florida Today January Tampa Recovered Paper Market Trends Bill President Atlanta, GA
2 Paper Recycling Market Consultants Recovered Paper Market Experts Based in Atlanta, Global Practice Market Research Strategic and Tactical Business Assistance Pricing Analysis Recovered Paper Sales & Procurement Assistance
3 Changes in the World Use of Paper & Board Recycling starts with paper and board production: we have to use it before it can be recovered Major global change in the graphic papers markets: newsprint, magazines, and printing/writing grades Production and use trends in the developed parts of the world (US, Western Europe, Japan) have been trending down for ten years now But the rest of the world use of these papers is about flat, with even some developing and emerging markets showing negative growth
4 Paperboard Packaging Grades In contrast to the graphic papers sector, paper based packaging is growing well In the developed markets there is still growth, in the developing regions (includes China) some growth is the norm, and in frontier and emerging markets growth should be strong Containerboard and cartonboard expansion will almost all be based on recycled fiber Much of the capacity increases (especially in the developed regions, but not limited to there) will be from graphic paper machine conversions Expect pressure on OCC supply and to a lesser extent Mixed Paper
5 US Mill Capacity Change By Grade (tons) Major Grade Change % Change Market Pulp 14,527,830 11,891,147-2,636,683-18% Newsprint 6,558,860 1,891,201-4,667,659-71% Packaging 53,002,204 53,720, ,157 1% Printing & Writing 27,627,131 15,258,957-12,368,174-45% Specialties 3,125,315 3,810, ,717 22% Tissue & Towel 6,994,597 8,520,719 1,526,122 22% Total 111,835,937 95,092,417-16,743,520-15%
6 North American Recovered Paper Collections (Million Tonnes) Export share: 1990: 24%, 2000: 26%, 2010: 39%, 2016: 32%
7 US Mixed Paper Market Issues Potential downside/bottom of the market cycle problems (or opportunities for buyers!) over supply Quality fiber length, mix, and non-paper contaminants: significant capital expenditures at the mill needed to use the grade and low yield Not a grade that was historically produced in large quantities, but residentially derived Mixed Paper changed that China purchases the largest amount of US collected Mixed Paper US mills with a few exceptions (Pratt being one of them) use minimal Mixed Paper
8 ONP Supply/Newsprint Market Issues Structural continuing decline in newsprint use in all the world s developed and developing economies. Even emerging and frontier economies use is sluggish and future growth limited. Declining newsprint supply; increased worldwide recycle mill capacity for use of ONP - but not for newsprint, primarily in cartonboard; rising recovery rates = upward price pressure, especially at low end of cycle North American and European containerboard machine conversions. More to come, other regions? Merging with Mixed Paper as a grade price and quality/fiber composition True deinking quality ONP becomes a premium grade limited supply, higher prices
9 Producing Paper & Board in the US Using Recycled Fibers For the last several decades, recycled fiber has had a distinct cost advantage over virgin fibers for the production of newsprint, away from home tissue products, containerboard, and recycle paperboard. But not for printing/writing grades and high end packaging. Increasing recovered paper costs over the next ten years may change the cost advantage dynamic: Higher commodity cycle costs Lower quality, shorter fibers and non-fiber contaminants - lower yields, higher processing costs
10 US Mill Demand Trends OCC demand remains strong due to growth in containerboard usage conversion of newsprint/graphic paper machines to recycled containerboard ONP demand declining in the face of greatly reduced newsprint production and the shift toward virgin fiber based newsprint (shutdown of recycled capacity) low quality ONP and higher cost to produce newsprint from recycled fiber Little new demand for Mixed Paper Recycle fiber growth as a percentage of furnish for the US (and global) tissue/towel industry has peaked lower quality high grades, widely available tropical hardwood bleached pulps, and higher mill processing costs
11 The PSI Guideline/Specification Changes The changes have not been without controversy Exporters/overseas buyers Where does ONP really fall RISI/PPW has begun reporting prices for #54 Mixed Paper and #56 Sorted Residential Paper prices, but not yet #58 Sorted Clean News They are still reporting the old Mixed Paper grade and #8 ONP the pricing so far has been the same for Mixed Paper and SRP the same as #8 ONP
12 and Kessler Consulting Recovery Rates Study Why we did the study Measuring/reporting: Too many methods = inconsistency & confusion NOT speaking the same language EPA s methodology believed to have flaws EREF s * approach offers better starting point * Environmental Research and Education Foundation
13 EREF vs. EPA EPA Recovery = 34.4% EREF Recovery =27.2% Million Tons Materials Recovery Organics Recovery Waste to Energy Landfill Base year = 2013 EREF EPA
14 50% 45% 40% Two Communities Two Recovery Rates? Residential MSW Commercial MSW C&D Recovery Rate 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 15% 10% 15% 15% 0% Community A Community B
15 Quality of Information Percent of Surveyed Local Governmental 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 13% 87% 65% 43% 13% 9% Residential ICI C&D Actual Estimate
16 US Residential vs. Industrial/Commercial/Institutional (ICI) Recovery
17 Organics Recovery 6% Demystifying Recovery Rates: Summary of Our Analysis MSW Generation & Management Materials Recovery 21% 347.0mm Tons Residential & ICI MSW Generation 347.0mm Tons Residen tial 43% Landfill & Waste-to-Energy 73% ICI 57% Source: EREF Source: & Assoc. and KCI
18 Summary of Our Analysis ICI 57% Resi 43% ICI MSW (197.6mm Tons) Residential MSW (149.5mm Tons) ICI = 234.8ons 69% (136.8mm Tons) Landfill & Waste-to- Energy 77% (115.9mm Tons) 4% (8.0mm Tons) 27% (52.7mm Tons) Organics Recovery Materials Recovery 9% (13.3mm Tons) 14% (20.3mm Tons) ICI accounts for 57% of all MSW generated, but 72% of materials recovery. The recycling rate within the ICI segment is nearly double the residential rate. Note: numbers may not add due to rounding.
19 Long Term Average Annual US OCC Price
20 OCC - Export Prices from the US, UK & Germany Notes: USD per metric ton; UK Pound to USD 1.25; German Euro to USD 1.04
21 Mixed Paper Export Prices from the US and UK Notes: USD per metric ton; UK Pound to USD 1.25
22 Long Term US Average Mixed Paper Price as a Percentage of OCC Price
23 Longer Term US Average Domestic FOB ONP Price
24 Longer Term US Average Mixed Paper Price as a Percentage of ONP Price
25 Chinese Domestic Collections and Net Imports of Recovered Paper Million Tonnes
26 Thank You for Your Attention
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