Changes in Dynamics and Pricing of LNG in the Atlantic Basin
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1 Changes in Dynamics and Pricing of LNG in the Atlantic Basin Andrew Williamson Head of LNG Supply, Commercial Operations & Trading Vienna, 29 January 2018 OMV Gas & Power
2 Agenda Changes in Dynamics and Pricing of LNG in the Atlantic Basin OMV Gas Introduction including Gate LNG Supply and Demand regions 2017 Focus on pricing Historic prices plus forward curves Focus on US FOB prices and changing destinations Rise of Chinese Demand LNG Future Transactions LNG Capacity in Europe Conclusion Pricing and Hedging 2 OMV Downstream Gas
3 Downstream Gas Gas & Power Equity gas supply Gas sales 67 TWh (~4.6 mtpa) 110 TWh (~7.6 mtpa) Captive use through 1.7 GW gas-fired power generation Gas logistics Main operator of Austria s gas infrastructure (pipelines and storages) Gas transportation volume sold: 1,492 TWh (~100 mtpa capcty.) Gas storage volume sold: 21 TWh (~1.45 mtpa) 3 OMV Downstream Gas
4 Downstream Gas NW Europe Trading Locations APX Gas UK since 2009 APX Spot NL since 2011 ICE/ENDEX since 2008 Powernext (EEX) since 2008 ICE since 2010 Czech Exchange since 2016 CEGH Gas Exchange since 2009 Powernext since 2011 NBP since 2009 GASPOOL since 2009 Zeebrugge since 2007 TTF since 2007 NCG since 2007 CEGH since 2009 MGP* since 2010 PEG Nord since 2009 PEG Sud since 2009 PSV since 2006 OMV GAS active OMV GAS office Hub Exchange 4 OMV Downstream Gas
5 LNG Portfolio: GATE Terminal Location: Maasvlakte North, Port of Rotterdam Number of berths: 2 Regasification capacity: 12 bcm/annum (~10 mtpa) Net tank capacity: m3 Design ship movements: 180/annum Start-up of operations: September 2011 OMV is a founding member of the project Long-term regasification and storage capacity contracted Long-term LNG contract with a portfolio supplier Recently announced medium term transactions with both Cheniere and Qatargas Significant activity in small scale LNG, reloading and trans-shipment 5 OMV Downstream Gas
6 LNG Supply and Demand Regions in 2017 Legend America Supply Price taker HH+Fixed Export Growth 2017 vol 34,200 Europe Demand Market Balancer Hub Index Fuel Switch 2017 vol 66,400 Mid East Demand Must Import Oil Prices Power + Growth 2017 vol 28,300 Asia Demand Contract + Spot Oil, JKM, JCC Clean fuel switch 2017 vol 281,400 Region Price view Price Index Main driver 2017 Volume 000 m 3 LNG America Demand Must buy Oil + spot Weather, fuel 2017 vol 24,400 Europe Supply European Sources M 2 LNG % Africa 27, Americas 5,600 8 Mid East + Africa Supply Portfolio Sells Highest price first Price differentials 2017 vol 181,400 Asia Supply Contract Prices Oil, JKM, JCC Source: OMV Summary AIS Data 6 OMV Downstream Gas Asia 3,800 6 Europe 5,800 9 Mid East 23, Fulfil contracts 2017 vol
7 Focus on Pricing Historic MA plus Forward Curve USD/MMbtu Historic MA Prices plus Forward Curves Market prices differ depending on regional peculiarities and contract structures A short LNG market has spot prices rise to Brent equivalence and substitution occurs A long LNG market has Europe balancing with prices low to increase demand via fuel switch A very long market could see prices fall to short run marginal cost of US production (supply cap) 0 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 JKM 18% Brent TTF Henry Hub 115% Henry Hub 115%+2,5 Source: OMV Summary Various Data Sources 7 OMV Downstream Gas
8 Focus on pricing US FOB Reported Prices $/MMBtu FOB Price US LNG sold 2017 US Market sees a variety of FOB prices achieved Full Cost (liquefaction included) in LT Prices; otherwise not Commissioning cargos with spot pricing Spot cargos achieved very different prices 3 2 Jan-17 Feb-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Long Term inc Liquefaction Spot Cargo Commissioning Long Term no Liquefaction Prices Source: US DOE Data 8 OMV Downstream Gas
9 Focus on Pricing US Destinations 3 US Destinations change with prices to reflect market shortages and seasonal demand Summer Mexico volumes are swapped to meet strong demand from Asian Market New supply will arrive soon with T4 Sabine, Cove Point, Cameron, Freeport, Corpus Christi adding new volumes Costs to send LNG cargos to Europe much lower than Asia Intra US pricing North East importing due to price spikes (Transco Zone 5/6) and Jones Act Source: OMV Summary AIS Data 9 OMV Downstream Gas
10 Rise of Chinese Demand The Bubble Burst China Imports Monthly by Country 1000 m 2 LNG Chinese demand rose strongly in 2017, overtaking South Korea as 2 nd largest LNG importer Drivers are a gas to coal switch to reduce pollution and colder weather Supplies are mixture of Australian contract plus spot volumes Seasonal demand will decrease but will China move to outbid Europe over summer? Colombia United States United Kingdom Trinidad and Tobago Spain South Korea Russia Qatar Peru Papua New Guinea Oman Norway Nigeria Netherlands Malaysia Lithuania Japan Indonesia France Equatorial Guinea Egypt China Brunei Belgium Australia Angola Algeria Source: OMV Summary AIS Data 10 OMV Downstream Gas
11 LNG Future Transactions LNG Market is changing Japan legislating against destination clauses and liberalising domestically Petronet renegotiate Exxon Mobil deal. Price cut in exchange for higher volumes pressure elsewhere for this Beginning to hear shorter term deals in the market with JKM pricing structures Growth of FSRUs lead to smaller contracts quantities, with shorter durations, with less recognised counterparties, eg Bangladesh, Pakistan, Thailand Longer term Atlantic basin deals based on TTF Shorter duration, smaller volumes, higher credit and operation risks! 11 OMV Downstream Gas
12 Sines 3,6 bcm LNG Capacity in Europe Mugardos 3,6 bcm Huelva 11,7 bcm Dragon 7,6 bcm Isle of Grain 21 bcm South Hook 21 bcm Montoir 15 bcm Sagunto 8,76 bcm Cartagena 11,7 bcm Gate 12 bcm Zeebrugge Dunkerque 9 bcm 13 bcm Fos Cavaou/Tonkin Barcelona 8,25/3,25 bcm 17 bcm GNL Italia 3,8 bcm Polskie LNG 5 bcm OLT Offshore 3,75 bcm Klaipeda 4 bcm Adriatic LNG 7,7 bcm Marmara 8 bcm Aliaga 6 bcm Revithousa 5 bcm 221bcm capacity available but many constraints Markets with very limited liquidity Physical markets with limited interconnection, low liquidity, & limited ability to absorb LNG Markets with high access costs, regulatory constraints, and/or volatile spreads markets to hedging hubs OMV estimate suggests bcm capacity in efficient price hedging locations Of this, OMV estimates >50% is already booked; >20-25 bcm offered Fuel switch potential becomes limited in the EU as coal units phase out 12 OMV Downstream Gas
13 Conclusion: Pricing and Hedging What can LNG Markets learn from Gas? LNG commodity can be priced on various indicies (oil, HH, gas index, or spot ). Spot represents short term price Oversupply and undersupply dictate spot prices not indexed price levels Risk management and economics will place large stress on traditional long term contracts not indexed to spot In gas, establishment of liquid hubs, contract deregulation and liquid spot markets has led to lower prices Non-spot indexing is now very uncommon in European gas markets Consumers and producers grow to trust the indicies Gas flows strongly follow price signals In LNG, hub priced deals are happening JKM volumes are small but growing will this become the global index? 13 OMV Downstream Gas
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