Climate Change Adaptation Workshop For Planning Practitioners. National Climate Change Issues -- Setting the Scene

Transcription

1 Climate Change Adaptation Workshop For Planning Practitioners National Climate Change Issues -- Setting the Scene John Higgins Australian Greenhouse Office Department of the Environment and Heritage

2 Source: Munich Reinsurance Company Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005

3 The need for adaptation Early impacts have already appeared Best science says further impacts are inevitable Assets purchased now will still be around in years Early planning will ensure Australian industries and communities are well placed to cope with change

4 Planners and Climate Change Planners have a critical role in ensuring that planning for the future addresses the challenge of climate change Are current development patterns increasing Australia s vulnerability to climate change challenges? Planners face two major challenges in a changing climate How to build resilience and/or adapt to climate change impacts How to reduce greenhouse emissions

5 Challenges New territory Acting with imperfect knowledge Global climate change science robust, BUT Uncertainty over timing, nature, magnitude of change Regional impacts more uncertain Costs and benefits difficult to calculate Long lead times to realise investments

6 Meeting the challenge Advantages of early planning Use the best available information Build on existing planning mechanisms and infrastructure (mainstream adaptation) Risk management approach

7 Australian Climate Change Science Programme $30.7m, partnership CSIRO & BoM Understanding key drivers of climate change in Australia Ocean processes, atmosphere (aerosols, clouds), terrestrial carbon cycle, detection & attribution Climate modelling ACCESS - national capacity (world competitive), earth system, AR4 Climate change, climate variability and extreme events ENSO, extreme rainfall, fire risk, cyclones, hailstorms Regional climate projections Resolution relevant to decision making, new generation International research collaboration Huge and essential leverage Communication and coordination Underpin impact assessment, adaptation strategies

8 National Climate Change Adaptation Programme Announced in May 2004 Budget $14.2 million over 4 years Goal is to commence preparing Australian governments and vulnerable industries and communities for the unavoidable impacts of climate change

9 NCCAP key objectives Advise Government on policy issues related to climate change impacts and adaptation, including risks and opportunities Build capacity to support the development of effective and targeted adaptation strategies Engage stakeholders and provide targeted and scalerelevant information and tools to industry sectors and regions Integrate climate change impacts and adaptation considerations into key policies and programmes, including into risk management practices across vulnerable sectors

10 National Climate Change Adaptation Programme Policy Advice Building Adaptation Capacity Research Partnerships National risk assessment Climate change adaptation consultations Applied adaptation research projects Policy co-ordination and advice Working with Australian Government Agencies National adaptation framework Engaging stakeholders Developing adaptation tools Integrated assessments

11 National Climate Change Adaptation Programme Policy Advice Building Adaptation Capacity Research Partnerships National adaptation framework Partnership with PIA Professional development Developing adaptation tools for planners Filling knowledge gaps for planners Integrated assessments

12 National Adaptation Framework COAG Climate Change Action Plan Key elements will include: a schedule for development of medium to long term adaptation strategies; a strategy to strengthen knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation responses; linkages to other aspects of the Climate Change Action Plan; linkages to the work of COAG and Ministerial Councils; and a practical focus which leads to strategies capable of being translated into action. Examples include development of strategies to protect biodiversity, assist water management, protect human health and manage fire protection. Melbourne Feb 2005

13 Partnership with PIA AGO recognises key role of planners in adapting to climate change Partnership with the Planning Institute of Australia to: increase the understanding of the need for long-term adaptation to the impacts of climate change understand and meet the information needs of planners Workshops are the first step in this partnership ARIES looking at professional education and development needs

14 An adaptation toolkit for planners Regional spatial climate information Trends Projections Risk management guidance Sector specific tools Regional specific tools Self-Identification of Stakeholder Adaptation Priorities Adaptation planning/responses Further investigations

15 Filling key knowledge gaps for Planners Implications of climate change impacts for building standards and design Assessment of Australia s coastal vulnerability to climate climate change impacts Understanding implications of climate change for water resources

16 Coastal Impacts from CC Sea level rise and shoreline erosion Increased coastal flooding More intense tropical cyclones Salt water intrusion into aquifers progressive inland migration of coastal ecosystems, eg. mangroves, saltmarsh More coral bleaching events various affects to coastal industries, eg. fisheries, tourism

17 Wind/storm shifts Atmosphere Seagrass impacts Altered wave/beach regime Urban Ecosystem Coral Reef/Pelagic Ecosystem Insect vectors(+ or -) Coral bleaching, shrinking Harbour changes Urban intrusion Urban flooding Mangrove habitat loss Saltwaterfreshwater interface T, ph changes Current and fisheries changes Ocean Land Coastal vegetation and parks ecosystems Urban water supply and water quality (algal blooms) Estuarine/Wetland Ecosystem Growth and stress changes Runoffsediment balance

18 Stakeholder Workshop - Outcomes Policy, planning, management guidance Capacity building assistance (eg. local gov.) Data/info accessibility, collation, clarity, consistency, certainty, currency (national responsibility?) Simple tools for decision-support at national level (CC not often primary driver but add-on) eg. maps, scenarios Cost-benefit analyses Active communication/education (including indigenous) Legislative review (liability links)

19 Towards a National Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Characteristics nationally consistent data or product, usable by key agencies broadscale maps of impacts showing vulnerability levels selected regional/location-scale maps expert assessments of vulnerability scenario driven Undertake systematic data collection and access Prepare new data sets of derived data where required, eg. new coastline definition, coastal zone elevation and near-shore bathymetry derived projections of climate change components

20 Integrated Assessment of Settlements Projects Combining insights from several disciplines Partnerships with State/Territory Governments, Local Government bodies, research institutions, communities Stakeholder driven Transferable outcomes

21 Western Port, Victoria Climate change in Western Port: An integrated assessment of impacts on regional settlements and adaptation response Project Partners: Western Port Greenhouse Alliance Marsden Jacob Associates CSIRO Department of Sustainability and the Environment Focus on housing, infrastructure siting and planning

22 Clarence Foreshores, Tasmania Integrated Assessment and Responses to Sea Level Rise Impacts on Clarence Foreshores Project Partners: Clarence City Council Department of Primary Industries and Water Focus on: physical, social, economic and planning implications of sea-level rise

23 Canberra and Region and Rural towns of Victoria Integrated study of climate change impacts on Canberra and region, and comparison with impacts on rural Victorian towns Project Partners: ANU Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies ACT Government NSW and Victorian Local Councils

24 Summing up Adaptation is an increasingly important national priority Planners have a key role Work has started to build our knowledge and capacity to adapt Despite uncertainties we already know enough to start planning and should start early Risk management is a sensible approach

25 Climate Change Adaptation Workshop For Planning Practitioners National Climate Change Issues -- The Adaptation Toolkit John Higgins Australian Greenhouse Office Department of the Environment and Heritage

26 The Adaptation Toolkit: Objectives The primary objective of the toolkit is to provide stakeholders with guidance and information that will help them: access information about climate change and how it will affect them make an initial assessment of the implications of climate change for their activities be aware of options for adapting to the impacts of climate change, and plan for the impacts of climate change on their activities.

27 The Adaptation Toolkit: Target audience General content material relevant to anybody who wants to plan for the impacts of climate change Specialist content material designed to help particular groups, such as local government, water managers, biodiversity managers etc

28 The Adaptation Toolkit: Timetable December 2006 First draft toolkit Mostly general content 2007 further consultation with stakeholders gradual improvement of toolkit and addition of specialist tools

29 The Adaptation Toolkit: Components Climate trends (BoM) Climate projections and scenarios (CSIRO) Impact and vulnerability information Decision Support Tools Adaptations Options Delivery through a one stop shop website

30 Climate trends

31 Climate projections Annual Temperature Change ( o C) Temperature Change ( o C)

32 Improved climate projections Due in 2007 Probabilistic information Regionalisation relevant to stakeholders Variables that matter

33 Climate projections - OZCLIM.NET Australian climate change scenario generator choose different assumptions about future greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, climate sensitivity and climate models, in 5-year steps from 2010 to 2100 produces graphical (e.g. maps) or digital (e.g. data files) output variables currently available are monthly mean temperature and mean rainfall a tool for more advanced users

34 Winter rainfall in 2050 Change from 1990 High warming, dry model Winter rainfall in 2050 Change from 1990 Low warming, wet model

35 Decision support Risk management Mechanisms are already in place in many organisations Widely understood and embedded in business systems Risk management, using AS/NZS 4360 (the Standard), assists in: Understanding priorities Allocating resources to deal with them

36 Risk management Guidance Based on four pilot studies Local government Gas and electricity supplier Water corporation State government department Simple practical guide based on the Australian standard

37 Process overview AS 4360 PREPARATION WORKSHOP TREATMENT Consult & communicate Climate change scenarios Establish the context Objectives Stakeholders Criteria Key elements Identify the risks & opportunities What can happen? How could it happen? Analyse the risks & opportunities Review controls Likelihoods Consequences Significance Monitor and review Evaluate Evaluate risks & opportunities Rank risks & opportunities Screen out minor issues Treat the risks & exploit the opportunities Identify options Select the best Develop plans Implement Build on the Standard Build on your existing risk management processes

38 Scenarios for risk management NSW in 2030 Low Global Warming High Global Warming Estimate of Uncertainty Change Estimate of Uncertainty change Annual average temperature +0.6 C ±0.2 C +1.3 C ±0.6 C Average sea level +3 cm +17 cm Annual average rainfall 0% ±6.5% 0 % ±15% Seasonal average rainfall Summer +1.5% ±8% +3.5% ±18.5 % Autumn +1.5% ±8% +3.5% ±18.5% Winter -3% ±6.5% -7.5% ±15% Spring -3% ±6.5% -7.5% ±15% Annual average potential evaporation +2.4% ±1.9% +5.6% ±4.4% Annual average number of hot days +1 day +25 days (>35 C) Annual average number cold nights -5 days -30 days (<0 C) Annual average number of very high +1 day +10 days & extreme forest fire danger days b Extreme daily rainfall intensity (1 in 0% +6% (east) 40 year event) c -5% (west) Carbon dioxide concentration +73ppm +102ppm For risk assessment, it is important to consider extreme scenarios, even though they may have low probability (this is why we have insurance). Note the high global warming including the uncertainty, e.g. annual average rainfall may decline by 15% and evaporation may rise by 10%

39 Risk management Initial assessment Risk you know you have to treat Risk you know you can set aside Treat now Put on watch Risk you can t classify yet Detailed assessment

40 Questions What climate change information do planners need? What decision-support tools do planners need? How can the Australian Greenhouse Office help planners access these tools and information? Impacts and adaptation e-news