BP Energy Outlook 2018 edition

Transcription

1 BP Energy Outlook 218 edition Spencer Dale Group chief economist

2 Alternative scenarios Primary energy consumption by fuel Carbon emissions Billion toe Billion tonnes CO Renewables ET ICE ban Less RE gas push switch FT EFT Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Evolving transition (ET) Internal combustion engine ban (ICE ban) 1 Less gas switching Renewables push (RE push) 5 Faster transition (FT) Even faster transition (EFT)

3 Billion toe 2 Transport 15 1 Three windows on the energy transition Industry Non-combusted Buildings Primary energy demand End-use sector Region Fuel Other Africa Other Asia India China OECD Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil

4 Global energy by fuel Primary energy consumption by fuel Shares of primary energy Billion toe Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 5% 4% 3% Oil Coal Hydro Gas Nuclear Renewables 2% 5 1% %

5 Diversified fuel mix Shares of primary energy 1% 8% 6% Oil Gas Coal Non-fossil 4% 2% %

6 Natural gas 6

7 Growth in natural gas demand Gas consumption by region Gas consumption by sector Bcf/d Bcf/d N America China Middle East Africa Europe India & Other Asia CIS Other Transport Power Industry Buildings Non-combusted

8 Possible risks to the outlook for natural gas Billion toe Gas demand increase Industry Transport Power Buildings Non-combusted 1. Switching.5 Other effects. Evolving transition Less gas switch 8

9 Possible risks to the outlook for natural gas Billion toe Gas demand increase Industry Transport Power Buildings Non-combusted 1. Switching.5 Other effects. Evolving transition Less gas switch 9

10 Possible risks to the outlook for natural gas Billion toe Gas demand increase Industry Transport Power Buildings Non-combusted Switching % per annum -1% % 1% 2% Evolving transition Less gas switch Renewables push Gas demand growth Evolving transition Less gas switch Other effects 1 Faster transition Even faster transition

11 LNG continues to grow LNG exports LNG imports Bcf/d Bcf/d Middle East N America Russia Africa Australia Other China Other Asia India OECD Asia Europe Other

12 Asian demand for US LNG Bcf/d Asian LNG imports and LNG exports of regions close to Asia Other* Other Asia Middle East (net) Australia *Other includes Peru, Canada, East Africa, Angola, parts of West African and Russian gas supplies 12

13 Asian demand for US LNG Bcf/d Asian LNG imports and LNG exports of regions close to Asia Other* Other Asia Asian LNG imports Middle East (net) Australia *Other includes Peru, Canada, East Africa, Angola, parts of West African and Russian gas supplies 13

14 Gas supply to Europe Bcf/d 7 LNG Other pipeline Russia Production

15 The role of US in global energy markets US shares of global production 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Gas Oil* % * Includes crude and NGLs 15

16 The role of US in global energy markets US shares of global production Regional oil/gas imbalances 5% 4% 3% Billion toe US S & C America Africa Asia Other N Middle East Europe CIS Net exporters 2% 1% Gas Oil* Net importers % * Includes crude and NGLs 16

17 The role of US in global energy markets US shares of global production Regional oil/gas imbalances 5% 4% 3% Renewables Billion toe US S & C America Africa Asia Other N Middle East Europe CIS Net exporters 2% 1% Gas Oil* Net importers % * Includes crude and NGLs 17

18 BP Energy Outlook 218 edition Spencer Dale Group chief economist

19 Electric cars, shared mobility and autonomy Trillion km Car kilometres by fuel type Electricity Gas Liquids

20 Electric cars, shared mobility and autonomy Trillion km Car kilometres by fuel type New mobility share of Vkm 4 Electricity 4% Private - autonomous 35 3 Gas Liquids 3% Shared - autonomous Shared - human driver % % %

21 Liquid fuel demand from passenger cars Mb/d Changes in liquids demand from cars: Growth in demand for travel Tightening in vehicle efficiency standards 2. Shared mobility EVs Switch to EVs Other gains in fuel efficiency

22 Global ban on internal-combustion engine (ICE) cars 22

23 Global ban on internal-combustion engine (ICE) cars Share Electric car sales as a share of total car sales Share Share of total passenger Vkm powered by electricity 1% 1% Evolving transition Evolving transition 8% ICE ban 8% ICE ban 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% % %

24 Impact of ICE ban Mb/d 24 2 Passenger cars liquids demand Evolving transition ICE ban Evolving transition ICE ban

25 Impact of ICE ban Mb/d Passenger cars liquids demand Evolving transition ICE ban Carbon emissions from energy Billion tonnes CO Evolving transition ICE ban Even faster transition 216 Evolving transition ICE ban