2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
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1 217 Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Texas A&M Energy Symposium Som Sinha The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 216. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading Factors Affecting Future Results in the Investors section of our website at This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. 1
2 Global Trends Continue to Evolve 125% Growth from 215 Level Percent 1% 75% 5% 25% % x GDP +25% demand +1.8 billion people +1% CO 2 emissions -45% CO 2 intensity 2 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
3 Key Energy Outlook Themes Energy is fundamental to standards of living Economics and policies impact the energy mix N atural gas grows more than any other energy source Developing nations lead gains in GDP and living standards Oil remains the world s primary fuel through 24 Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty 3 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
4 The energy equation People living standards energy needs 4 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
5 Developing Nations Lead Population Growth Global Population Billion People 1 8 Non-OECD OECD ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
6 Purchasing Power and Middle Class Grow GDP Per Capita Thousand PPP Dollars Global Middle Class Billion People 5 4 Rest of World Latin America Other Asia Pacific 3 China 2 India $1k $3k >$4k 1 '15 '3 OECD Source: The Brookings Institution 6 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
7 Non-OECD Leads Economic Growth World GDP Trillion 21$ Growth Trillion 21$ % AAGR 8 Non-OECD 1.9% AAGR Africa Other AP 4 India 4 OECD Europe China 2 United States OECD Non-OECD 7 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
8 Energy Fuels Human Development U.N. Human Development Index 214 Index 1. Norway United States.75 China Bangladesh India.5 Yemen Nigeria Energy Use per Capita (Thousand BTU/person/day) Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil estimates 8 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
9 Demand Growth From Developing Nations 12 Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs Demand without Efficiency Growth Quadrillion BTUs 1 Energy Savings Americas 16 8 Mid East Africa 12 6 Non-OECD Other AP 8 4 Demand India 2 OECD China Non-OECD 9 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
10 Economics and policies impact the energy mix. 1
11 CO Energy 2 Emissions Mix Shifts Plateau to Lower-Carbon Fuels Global Energy Mix Percent Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region Billion Tonnes 1% Other Renewables 4 8% Wind & Solar Nuclear 3 Non-OECD Coal 6% 2 4% Gas China 2% Oil 1 OECD % U.S ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
12 Oil remains the world s primary fuel through
13 Transportation and Chemicals Drive Growth Liquids Demand by Sector MBDOE Light Duty Chem Transportation Industrial Res/Comm Electricity Generation 13 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
14 Transportation Demand Driven by Commerce Sector Demand MBDOE 75 Rail 5 Marine Aviation Commercial Heavy Duty 25 Light Duty ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
15 Car Penetration Rises Car Penetration 214 Cars per Thousand People Car Penetration Cars per Thousand People 9 6 France U.S. Italy Germany Los Angeles Japan Developed Nations Major U.S. Cities More Developed Chinese Cities Developing Nations Europe South Korea China 3 Beijing Brazil China Shanghai Boston Taiwan Mexico Turkey Indonesia South Korea NYC Singapore India Average Urban Population Density (People per Square KM) 2 Brazil Indonesia India PPPGDP per Capita ($K) Source: demographia.com, ExxonMobil estimates 15 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
16 Personal Mobility Increases Penetration Vehicles Per Thousand People U.S. Car Sales by Class Percent 6 4 1% % Small 4 5% Mid-size 2 Motorcycles Large 25% Vans SUVs Europe South Korea Brazil China Indonesia India Cars Pick-ups % ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
17 New Car Fuel Economy Improves Rapidly Average New Car Fuel Economy Miles per Gallon World U.S Target E.U. 21 Japan 2 China 2 India ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
18 Consumer Preference and Policy Determine Fleet Mix Fleet by Type Million Cars Light Duty Vehicle Demand MBDOE Vehicle Miles Traveled Trillion Miles 2 15 Gasoline Diesel Natural Gas & LPG Full Hybrid Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell '1 '15 '2 '25 '3 '35 ' ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
19 Liquids Supply Highlights Technology Gains By Region MBDOE 12 By Type MBDOE 4 8 Other Non-OPEC Russia North America 2 4 OPEC OPEC Non-OPEC Tight Oil NGLs Deepwater Oil Sands Biofuels Other Conventional Crude and Condensate 19 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
20 All Scenarios Require Ongoing Development Liquids Supply/Demand MBDOE 12 1 Other NGLs 8 Tight Oil 6 4 Natural decline in the absence of further investment Deepwater Conventional Crude and Condensate New investment in supply required to offset natural decline and meet growing demand *Based on IEA sources; excludes biofuels 2 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
21 Liquids Trade Balance by Region MBDOE Net Imports Net Exports Local Production North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 21 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
22 Natural gas grows more than any other energy source. 22
23 Gas Demand Grows in All Sectors Gas Demand by Sector BCFD Electricity Generation Industrial Res/Comm Transportation 23 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
24 Electricity Demand Continues to Surge Electricity Demand by Region Thousand TWh Electricity Net Delivered by Type Thousand TWh China Other Renewables 6 4 Other Asia Pacific United States Europe 2 Wind & Solar Nuclear Gas 2 India 1 Coal Oil 24 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
25 Electricity Sources Shift Regionally Change in Net Delivered Electricity Thousand TWh Gas Wind/Solar Nuclear Other Renewables Coal Oil Net OECD China India Other AP Africa Middle East Rest of World ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
26 Fuel for Electricity Transitions Net Delivered Electricity Thousand TWh 1 8 Non-Carbon Fuels Gas Coal Oil U.S Europe China India Other AP Middle East Africa Rest of World 26 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
27 Natural Gas Supply By Production Type BCFD 6 By Delivery Type BCFD 6 Unconventional North America LNG 4 4 Pipeline 2 Conventional 2 Net Local Production ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
28 Gas Trade Balance by Region BCFD Net Imports Net Exports Local Production North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific 28 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
29 Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty. 29
30 Technology Helps Us Do More With Less Global Average Intensity Index CO 2 / Energy.6 Energy / GDP.4 CO 2 / GDP ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
31 CO 2 Abatement Costs CO 2 Abated Abatement Cost = Dollars Capital Tonne Operating Costs Coal Gas 31 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
32 Clarifying Options to Reduce CO 2 Emissions Average U.S. CO 2 Abatement Costs Dollars per tonne Improved Gasoline Vehicles Gas into Power Nuclear Hybrid Carbon Vehicles Capture and Sequestration Wind Solar Electric Cars 32 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
33 Two Paths to CO 2 Reduction United States Generation Share Percent Germany Generation Share Percent CO 2 Intensity of Generation g CO 2 /kwh generation 1% Oil Other Renewables 1% 6 25 Wind & Solar 75% Nuclear 75% % Gas 5% 2 25% 25% Coal % % United States Germany Sources: EIA, UBA 33 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
34 Technology Contributes to the Fuel Mix Global Mix of Fuels 1% 75% Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Unconventional Gas Gas 5% Deepwater, Oil Sands, Tight Oil Oil 25% Coal % Biomass Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (18-196) 34 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
35 Global Demand 24 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs % Non- OECD % Average Growth / Yr % % 1 5 OECD.2% 2.6% 4.7% 1.4% Oil Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Solar / Wind / Biofuels Hydro / Geo 35 ExxonMobil 217 Outlook for Energy
36 For more information, visit exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook or download the ExxonMobil app 36
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