Transport Technology and Policy Scenarios to 2050

Transcription

1 Transport Technology and Policy Scenarios to 2050 Geneva, 11 th March 2009 World Energy Council 2008 Dr. Simon Godwin, Transport Specialist Study Group

2 Overview Challenge & objectives Technology solutions - Near and long term technologies - Cost and breakeven - Breakthough analysis Policy solutions World Energy Council 11 th March

3 Overview Challenge & objectives Technology solutions - Near and long term technologies - Cost and breakeven - Breakthough analysis Policy solutions World Energy Council 11 th March

4 Energy demand & transport growth WBCSD (IEA data) EIA, International Energy Outlook 2006 Total & transport energy demand predicted to grow by 70% from 2003 to 2030 Transportation growth dominated by aviation and passenger transport (and freight) World Energy Council 11 th March

5 Transport energy sustainability Sustainability = Energy security Environmental Economic Climate change Social Economic and social elements of sustainability are an essential part of the mix Energy security and climate change are overlapping problems World Energy Council 11 th March

6 Transport energy objectives Energy security Climate change More supply Diversification Lower Lower fossil content Lower carbon content The overlap of the two main objectives is clear Policy should be directed towards diversification, lower and lower carbon energy World Energy Council 11 th March

7 Overview Challenge & objectives Technology solutions - Near and long term technologies - Cost and breakeven - Breakthough analysis Policy solutions World Energy Council 11 th March

8 WEC Scenarios Technology Roadmap Vehicles Gasoline and diesel PCs with advanced combustion techniques, hybrids Fuel cell, electric Liquid fossil fuels Fuels Biofuels and alternative fuels Electricity, hydrogen Advances in ICEs, some penetration of FCEV & BEVs will characterise automotive technology Biofuels and alternative fuels will enhance sustainability for conventional auto technologies World Energy Council 11 th March

9 Fuel cell electric vehicle development (Daimler) Bus Passenger Cars Lead Application Sprinter Generation 1 Technology Demonstration 2004 Generation 1 Technology Demonstration A-Class F-CELL Generation 1 Technology Demonstration Generation 2 Customer Acceptance 2009 Generation 2 Customer Acceptance B-Class F-CELL Generation 2 Customer Acceptance Future Generations 20xx Generation 3 Cost Reduction I Future Generations ~20xx Generation 4 Market Introduction Cost Reduction II ~20xx Generation 5 Mass Production World Energy Council 11 th March

10 Fuel cell electric vehicle prospects Incremental cost per FCEV ($) METI Cool Earth METI Cool Earth IEA $2 400 IEA $ Assumption: based on $ average cost of 80kW conventional vehicle Range of estimates indicates FCEVs could approach ICE cost position between 2020 and 2050 Availability of hydrogen infrastructure remains a barrier World Energy Council 11 th March

11 On the market Smart electric drive: 100 fleet vehicles Battery electric vehicle activities Tesla: on sale $100,000 REVA (quadricycle class): $16,000 (UK), 3000 sold Th!nk City In the pipeline Mitsubishi i-miev Nissan Nuvu Toyota iq VW space up! Blue Mini E Mercedes-Benz Programmes Smart electric drive pilot London e-mobility Berlin e-mobility Italy World Energy Council 11 th March

12 Battery electric vehicles prospects Prospects for battery cost and vehicle range Battery cost ($/kwh) $72 000* IEA projection $160/kWh $36 000* $10 000* $1 800* Vehicle range (km) * 100 kwh battery Source: Cool Earth (METI), IEA Most optimistic projections predict full spec BEVs after 2030 Availability of charging infrastructure remains a barrier World Energy Council 11 th March

13 Alternative fuels Vegetable oil / grain based biofuels Advanced biofuels Source Biomass sources Grain ethanol Petroleum fuels FAME biodiesel HVO Cellulosic ethanol Synthetic fuels BTL Algae Fossil sources Conventional Method Fuels compatible with existing engines should be favoured CTL Advanced GTL diesel Most alternative fuels contribute to at least one element of sustainability World Energy Council 11 th March

14 Policy: biofuel sustainability European Union: negotiation on standards - Minimum greenhouse gas savings (35% 50% or 60%) - Inclusion of indirect land use change in GHG calculation - Biodiversity (re. biomass from forests, grassland, wetlands) USA, California also creating standards Standards should promote technical innovation Fuel is global commodity sustainability standards should be harmonised World Energy Council 11 th March

15 Alternative fuels - economics Cost per gasoline litre equivalent ($) 1,80 1,60 1,40 1,20 1,00 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 Gasoline retail price (Germany) Diesel retail price (Germany) Gasoline / diesel production cost Ethanol (beet) FAME Ethanol (corn) 0,00 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% GHG saving (%) HVO Ethanol (cellulosic) Ethanol (cane) BTL Long term costs (IEA 2030) Retail prices: EIA Low carbon fuels are more expensive to produce than petroleum fuels A tax model that incentivises fuels proportional to GHG saving can make them viable World Energy Council 11 th March

16 Energy analysis results, passenger vehicles Global transport fossil energy Global WTW fossil energy (exaj) level Business as usual -5% Hybrid 50% globally -17% -41% FCEV 50% globally Biofuel 50% globally WEC Scenarios calculations Hybrids (and diesels ) provide a few percent energy reduction at high penetrations FCEV can bring greater reduction but at higher cost Advanced biofuels bring very high reductions, but sustainability must be ensured World Energy Council 11 th March

17 Overview Challenge & objectives Technology solutions - Near and long term technologies - Cost and breakeven - Breakthough analysis Policy solutions World Energy Council 11 th March

18 Policy: focus on objectives Energy security Climate change Diversification Lower Lower carbon content Make the market work to reach these objectives Enable the market by overcoming barriers to entry World Energy Council 11 th March

19 Policy: how to encourage through the market Vehicle tax credit proportional to lifetime Lower carbon saving vs conventional $0 Breakeven point for fuel cell technology $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 IEA 2020: $11240 IEA 2035: $3600 USA China Germany H2 = $5/gge IEA 2050: $2360 JIAE 2020: $2000 Breakeven area Low $0 $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 $9.00 $10.00 Retail price of gasoline (gallon) High Breakeven point for BEV technology $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 IEA: $16000 USA China Germany JIAE 2015: $10000 $0.16/kWh High Breakeven area JIAE 2030: $1800 Low $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 $9.00 $10.00 Retail price of gasoline (/gallon) World Energy Council 11 th March

20 Policy: how to encourage through the market Vehicle tax credit proportional to lifetime carbon saving vs conventional Lower Breakeven point for fuel cell technology $15,000 IEA 2020: $11240 $10,000 $5,000 IEA 2035: $3600 IEA 2050: $2360 JIAE 2020: $2000 $0 USA China Germany H2 = $5/gge High Breakeven area Low $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 $9.00 $10.00 Breakeven point for BEV technology IEA: $16000 USA China Germany $15,000 JIAE 2015: $10000 $10,000 $0.16/kWh High $5,000 Breakeven area JIAE 2030: $1800 Low $0 Retail price of gasoline (gallon) $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 $9.00 $10.00 Retail price of gasoline (/gallon) 2.00 Gasoline incl. tax 1.80 Fuel tax credit proportional to carbon saving vs conventional Lower carbon content Cost per gasoline litre equivalent ($) 1.60 Diesel incl. tax Ethanol 0.60 (beet) Ethanol Ethanol (corn) (cellulosic) 0.40 FAME Gasoline / diesel Ethanol (cane) 0.20 pre tax % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% GHG saving (%) World Energy Council 11 th March

21 Policy: fuel incentives Cost per gasoline litre equivalent ($) 1,80 1,60 1,40 1,20 1,00 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 Gasoline retail price (Germany) Diesel retail price (Germany) Gasoline / diesel production cost Ethanol (beet) FAME Ethanol (corn) 0,00 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% GHG saving (%) HVO Ethanol (cellulosic) Ethanol (cane) BTL Degrade full tax amount Degrade tax by 100/tonne CO 2 No tax benefit Long term costs (IEA 2030) Retail prices: EIA Proportional carbon incentives can make some alternatives fuels economic for consumers Fuel degradation of current high taxes would bring most biofuels into play World Energy Council 11 th March

22 Policy: how to encourage through the market Vehicle tax credit proportional to lifetime carbon saving vs conventional Lower Breakeven point for fuel cell technology $15,000 IEA 2020: $11240 $10,000 $5,000 IEA 2035: $3600 IEA 2050: $2360 JIAE 2020: $2000 $0 USA China Germany H2 = $5/gge High Breakeven area Low $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 $9.00 $10.00 Breakeven point for BEV technology IEA: $16000 USA China Germany $15,000 JIAE 2015: $10000 $10,000 $0.16/kWh High $5,000 Breakeven area JIAE 2030: $1800 Low $0 Retail price of gasoline (gallon) $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 $9.00 $10.00 Retail price of gasoline (/gallon) 2.00 Gasoline incl. tax 1.80 Fuel tax credit proportional to carbon saving vs conventional Lower carbon content Cost per gasoline litre equivalent ($) 1.60 Diesel incl. tax Ethanol 0.60 (beet) Ethanol Ethanol (corn) (cellulosic) 0.40 FAME Gasoline / diesel Ethanol (cane) 0.20 pre tax % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% GHG saving (%) Fuel tax credit proportional to reduction in petroleum content Diversification How to assess value of diversification? Government action is required to provide economic incentives (tax) World Energy Council 11 th March

23 Policy: overcoming barriers to entry Enabling new vehicle technologies Fuel infrastructure Improving efficiency, choice and mobility Transport infrastructure Overcoming barriers to entry in technology value chain Research Development Production Marketing Government process is essential: Assess benefits of technologies / infrastructure against climate & energy objectives Assess investment requirements Direct investment to where it has greatest cost/benefit ratio World Energy Council 11 th March

24 Conclusion Determine objectives Sustainable transport energy Pull technologies using incentives Push technologies with investment Pull = proportional market incentive Push = investment support Technologies EV GTL diesel BTL FCEV World Energy Council 11 th March

25 Thank you World Energy Council 11 th March