Energy and CO 2 emissions in the OECD

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Energy and CO 2 emissions in the OECD With detailed supply and demand data up to 216 1 1.

1 Energy and CO 2 emissions in the OECD With detailed supply and demand data up to Data based on the 218 preliminary editions of the IEA World energy balances, and the IEA CO 2 Emissions from fuel combustion databases (for OECD countries).

2 2 - ENERGY AND CO 2 EMISSIONS IN THE OECD (218) Figure 1. Key OECD energy and emissions changes in %.5%.% -.5% Total primary energy supply Total final consumption Electricity generation CO2 emissions In 216, the OECD s total final consumption (TFC) increased by 1% to Mtoe, and electricity generation by.8% to 1947 TWh. At country level, TFC increased by up to 6%, such as in Poland, mainly driven by transport; TFC also decreased in four countries by 1%: Portugal, Japan, Italy and Canada. OECD CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion decreased by.5% to 11.6 billion tonnes CO 2, although trends varied across countries, with several increasing up to 5%. A significant reduction occurred in the UK (-6%), driven by electricity and heat generation - where emissions nearly halved in just four years, from 182 to 99 MtCO 2, while generation decreased just by 6% over the same period. Figure 2. OECD total final consumption: changes by sector across regions in 216 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% TFC Industry Transport Residential Services -3% -4% -5% OECD Americas OECD Asia-Oceania OECD Europe OECD

3 ENERGY AND CO 2 EMISSIONS IN THE OECD (218) - 3 The OECD s increase in final energy use (35 Mtoe) was largely driven by growth in transport (+19 Mtoe). Transport energy consumption increased consistently across the three OECD regions, and in 216 accounted for over a third of the OECD TFC. At the regional level, the largest TFC increase occurred in OECD Europe, driven by increases in road transport (+8 Mtoe) and residential (+9 Mtoe). Energy use for space heating, the most prominent residential end-use in OECD, increased across several countries (for example +1% in Germany). Residential energy use also showed a pronounced weather effect in OECD Americas, as the USA experienced rather warm winter conditions and residential gas consumption decreased by 6%. Non-energy use of fuels also increased across the three OECD regions, although levels were lower, representing 1% of the TFC in the region. Figure 3. OECD total final consumption trends Mtoe Industry Transport Residential Services Non-energy use Longer-term trends show that transport has emerged as the largest and fastest growing sector, with the 216 increase (1.5%) comparable to pre-crisis growth rates and level virtually back to those of 28. Energy use in industry, residential and services was on average rather stable over the last ten years across OECD. Within transport, gasoline accounted for almost half of energy consumption, with diesel just over a third (36%) - both increased about 1% in 216. The largest growth was observed for smaller energy sources: jet kerosene (6% of transport energy consumption); natural gas (2%) and electricity (less than 1%) all seeing increases of around 4%.

4 4 - ENERGY AND CO 2 EMISSIONS IN THE OECD (218) Figure 4. OECD Americas: trends in emissions by sector GtCO Electricity and heat Industry Transport Buildings* * Buildings includes services and residential. At the regional level, the relevance of transport is particularly pronounced in OECD Americas, the only region in OECD where in 216 emissions from transport have approached the levels of emissions from electricity and heat generation the latter having declined by 2% in the last ten years. For all countries in that region, Canada, Chile, Mexico and United States, transport emissions represent around a third of total emissions. Indeed across the OECD, transport accounted in 216 for over 3% of total CO 2 emissions in about half of the OECD, and above 4% in a quarter 1, including several European countries. 1.The large share of transport emissions for Luxembourg is linked to a significant role of fuel tourism due to price differentials with neighboring countries.

5 ENERGY AND CO 2 EMISSIONS IN THE OECD (218) - 5 Figure 5. Share of transport in total CO 2 emissions in 216: highest and lowest OECD country levels Luxembourg Sweden New Zealand Latvia Iceland Switzerland France Slovenia OECD Slovak Republic Germany Netherlands Poland Japan Czech Republic Korea Estonia % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Figure 6. OECD consumption by sector: shares by energy sources 216 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Industry Transport Residential Services Coal Oil Gas Electricity Other* *Other includes biofuels and waste, direct use of geothermal/solar thermal and heat produced in CHP/heat plants. While transport strongly relies on oil products (mainly gasoline and diesel), in 216 electricity accounted for 37% and 53% of total energy consumption in residential and services, respectively, with these shares increasing over time. In 216, the share of electricity in the services sector energy consumption was above two-thirds in seven OECD countries of which Korea, New Zealand and Australia. Electricity covered around 5% of residential consumption in Japan and the USA and up to 78% in Norway.

6 6 - ENERGY AND CO 2 EMISSIONS IN THE OECD (218) Figure 7. OECD emissions by fuel and sector Electricity and heat Industry Transport Buildings Gas 28% 11.6 Mt CO2 Coal 3% Other* Oil 41% * Other includes other energy industry own use, agriculture/forestry, fishing and other emissions not specified elsewhere In 216, transport was responsible for three quarters of the OECD emissions from oil - still the largest source of emissions at 41%, or 4.7 billion tonnes. Coal accounted for 3% of the OECD emissions, largely linked to electricity generation, where emissions from coal have slightly declined since 199 (-6%) to around 2.9 billion tonnes. Emissions from gas (3.2 billion tonnes) were generated by a more diverse set of sectors the largest being electricity generation, which more than doubled in the last twenty years. GtCO 2 Figure 8. OECD emissions by sector with and without electricity reallocation % 11% % 12% 24% Other Industry 6 3% 35% Buildings Transport 4 Electricity and heat 2 39% 3% ele/heat reallocated

7 ENERGY AND CO 2 EMISSIONS IN THE OECD (218) - 7 Although transport significantly increased its share in total emissions since 199, the largest emitting sector in OECD was still electricity and heat generation (39%). Once emissions from electricity and heat generation are reallocated to final consuming sectors, buildings, defined as residential and services together, becomes the driving sector in OECD with over a third of total emissions. Figure 9. OECD CO 2 emissions trends by sector after electricity reallocation GtCO Electricity and heat Industry - electricity and heat reallocated Transport - electricity and heat reallocated Buildings - electricity and heat reallocated Both building and industry sectors reflect recent trends in electricity decarbonisation, seeing decreases of total - direct and indirect - emissions of 12% and 8%, respectively, between 21 and 216. During the same period, transport increased by 3% due to its continued strong reliance on oil, and reached back the emissions levels of 28.

8 8 - ENERGY AND CO 2 EMISSIONS IN THE OECD (218) MtCO 2 15 Figure 1. CO2 from electricity generation: driving factors Avg. annual change Electricity generation is the sector with the highest decarbonisation rates since 2 for a variety of reasons. Electricity production, which increased by 2.5% each year on average between 199 and 2, has subsequently seen reduced growth over time, including almost flat trends in recent years (+.1%/yr between 21 and 216). The coal-to-gas switch and related increase in generation efficiency significantly acted to lower emissions from 2 onwards. Additionally, the effect strengthened for the further penetration of renewable sources, which lowered the share of electricity output from fossil fuels by 5% over the last six years. Figure 11. OECD electricity generation from renewables: shares in 216 by region 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% CO₂ intensity of fossil mix Generation efficiency Fossil share of electricity Total electricity output CO₂ emissions % OECD OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe Wind Solar Biofuel Other* Hydro * Other includes renewable municipal waste, geothermal, solar thermal and tide.

9 ENERGY AND CO 2 EMISSIONS IN THE OECD (218) - 9 Renewables penetration in electriciy generation has been varied across OECD regions, with strong growth of wind in Americas, and with Asia Oceania and Europe producing in 216 more electricity from wind, biofuels and solar together than from traditional hydro. Figure 12. OECD carbon intensity (CO 2 /TPES) by region OECD OECD Europe OECD Australia Oceania OECD America tco 2 per TJ The decarbonisation of electricity generation has strongly contributed to lowering the carbon intensity of the energy mix in OECD (1% fall between 199 and 216). Starting from similar levels in 199, the three regions have moved at different rates: while levels in Asia Oceania, strongly impacted by the Fukushima accident, were 2% higher in 216, those for Europe were 16% lower than in 199 and those of Americas 9% lower. Figure 13. OECD CO 2 emissions and drivers Index (2=1) Avg. annual change (million tonnes of CO2) CO₂ emissions Population GDP PPP/population TPES/GDP PPP CO₂/TPES

10 1 - ENERGY AND CO 2 EMISSIONS IN THE OECD (218) Lower carbon intensity of electricity generation has been one of the driving factors for the OECD emissions reductions over time (-8% between 2 and 216). However, lowered energy intensity has been the largest factor, as TPES/GDP decreased by 25% since 2, linked to energy efficiency improvements among other factors. Those two combined effects have allowed a very significant decoupling of emissions from GDP growth: while GDP increased by over 3%, CO 2 emissions in OECD decreased by 8% between 2 and 216. At the country level, the strongest decreases in the last sixteen years have occurred in Denmark (-34%) and the UK (-29%); but several OECD countries have experienced significant increases, such as Australia (17%), Mexico (24%), Korea (36%), Turkey (68%) and Chile (75%). Figure 14. CO 2 emissions changes 2-216: higest and lowest OECD country levels Chile Turkey Korea Mexico Australia OECD Italy Sweden Greece United Kingdom Denmark -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8%

11 ENERGY AND CO 2 EMISSIONS IN THE OECD (218) - 11 Geographical Coverage 1 : OECD Americas includes Canada, Chile, Mexico and the United States. OECD Asia Oceania includes Australia, Israel 2, Japan, Korea and New Zealand. OECD Europe includes Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia (from 199), Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia (from 199), Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia (from 199), Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and the United Kingdom. OECD Total includes Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia (from 199), Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia (from 199), Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia (from 199), Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. Sources: 218 Preliminary edition of World Energy Balances (OECD countries), OECD/IEA, Paris 218 Preliminary edition of CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (OECD countries), OECD/IEA, Paris Released in April 218 at Queries should be addressed to: stats@iea.org In addition, a wide range of free energy statistics can be accessed at: Please note that all IEA publications and data are subject to specific conditions that limit their use and distribution. These terms and conditions are available online at 1. This document is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. In this publication, country refers to country or territory, as the case may be. 2. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.

ITAM Mexico City, 27 October 2016

ITAM Mexico City, 27 October 2016 Founded in 1974 Formed in wake of 1973 oil embargo with mission to promote member country energy security -- autonomous agency of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation