19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Australia, December 2011

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1 19th Intenational Congess on Modelling and Simulation, Peth, Austalia, Decembe Challenging touism theoy though integated models: how multiple model pojects stengthen outcomes though a case study of touism development on the Ningaloo Coast of Westen Austalia T. Jones a, E. A. Fulton b and D. Wood c a Cutin Univesity Sustainability Policy (CUSP) Institute, Faculty of Humanities, Cutin Univesity, Peth, Westen Austalia b Wealth fom Oceans, CSIRO, GPO Box 1538, Hobat, Tasmania, 7001, Austalia c Office of the Deputy Vice Chancello Intenational, Cutin Univesity, Peth, Westen Austalia Abstact: This pape has the dual pupose of challenging touism planning theoy though modelling, and eflecting on the multi-model collaboation that made this possible and extended the each of a touism modelling poject. As such it povides a pactice-oiented eflection on collaboation between modelling pojects gounded in a discussion of model outputs and extension activities. The Ningaloo Destination Modelling (NDM) poject was one of five eseach pojects within the Ningaloo Collaboation Cluste, a pogam of eseach that was funded by the CSIRO s Wealth fom Oceans Flagship. The NDM poject was also funded by the Sustainable Touism CRC, and collaboated with a numbe of oganisations including two Shies, state agencies, utility povides, touism businesses and the Gascoyne Development Commission to gathe data and efine model featues and dynamics. The Ningaloo Collaboation Cluste focussed on the Ningaloo Coast, encompassing the Shies of Canavon and Exmouth, in the nothwest of Westen Austalia. Beginning 900 km noth of Peth, the Ningaloo Coast is a emote touism destination with a esident population of appoximately It attacts between and touists a yea. The gowth of touism and touism development oppotunities elies on the attaction of the egion s emoteness and a delicate ecosystem linked to a finging coal eef that is ove 300 kilometes long. Thus inappopiate touism development and visito gowth could jeopadise the futue of touism and alienate locals who place a high impotance on the natual envionment. Touism is an activity that tansfoms places and communities. It has a vaiety of thesholds that have been linked to economic, social and ecological change. The most widely used model of touism development, Richad Butles Touism Aea Life Cycle (TALC) model identifies these tansfomations and thesholds, linking impacts to six stages of development that ae detemined by the elationship between visito numbes and time. Using fou feedback loops (accommodation capacity, woke availability, social impacts, and visito esponse to envionmental egulation) togethe with visito pefeences, the NDM captues the tansfomative elements of the TALC, and moves away fom deteministic assumptions linking impacts to a stage of development. Equally impotant, development stategies that lessen the undesiable impacts of development can be exploed, indicating that the TALC stages ae not the sole diection that touism development need follow. This is demonstated in the pape though a case study of a emote touism node on Gnaaloo Station, in the middle of the Ningaloo Coast. A thead that uns though this pape is the influence of multiple modelling pojects within the Ningaloo Collaboation Cluste. The most impotant influence fom the pespective of this pape was the modelling esults, whee integation with an ecological model of the egion povided a ange of ecological indicatos that indicate the influence on key envionmental attactions. Keywods: Sustainable Touism, multi-model pojects, Ningaloo, modelling 3112

2 1. INTRODUCTION Sustainable touism planning expands the ange of fields that a planning execise needs to addess (Hall, 2000), and puts an onus on plannes to ensue that the planning pocess is collaboative in the full sense of the wod (Bamwell & Lane, 1999). Planning has shifted ove the past twenty yeas fom a booste appoach to touism, whee the aim was to incease touist numbes, to an expectation that it will addess social, envionmental and cultual impacts as well as economic impacts, and will povide a balanced and nuanced appoach (Hall, 2000; Inskeep, 1991). Scale is an impotant element hee, as the capacities, uses and connections of a place need to be consideed at diffeent scales (vetically) and acoss locations (hoizontally), and linked to ecological and social pocesses specific to a location and egion (Holling & Gundeson, 2002). This pape focuses on how touism, economic, envionmental and social elements wee integated in the NDM to ceate a sustainable touism planning tool. While it is acknowledged that engagement is the key deteminant of model uptake (Schianetz et al., 2007), the pocess of engagement is addessed in Jones et al. (2011a, 2011b) and Schianetz et al. (2009). We focus on the technical elements of the modelling: poviding an explanation of the model stuctue, and exploing the dynamics and outcomes of the model though a case study of a development site on Gnaaloo Station. We then eflect on the benefits of collaboation between modelles in an intedisciplinay modelling poject. 2. BACKGROUND The Ningaloo Destination Modelling (NDM) poject was one of five eseach pojects within the Ningaloo Collaboation Cluste, a pogam of eseach that was funded by the CSIRO s Wealth fom Oceans Flagship. The NDM poject was also funded by the Sustainable Touism CRC, and collaboated with a numbe of oganisations including two Shies, state agencies, utility povides, touism businesses and the Gascoyne Development Commission to gathe data and efine model Recommendation fo Gnaaloo Station: Touism node Gnaaloo and envions is suitable fo a touism node due to the scale and configuation of land available, majestic views, and established access and infastuctue. Othe benefits include poximity to an aistip, Gnaaloo Bay, emote coastline (potentially oadless) to the noth, Thee Mile Camp and extaodinay suf beaks, pocket beaches and ocky coastal featues. Souce: (WAPC, 2004: 59) featues and dynamics. The Ningaloo Collaboation Cluste focussed on the Ningaloo Coast, encompassing the Shies of Canavon and Exmouth, in the nothwest of Westen Austalia. The Ningaloo Coastal egion stetches fom Canavon in the south to the Muion Islands in the noth. It is known pimaily fo the Ningaloo Reef, the lagest finging coal eef in Austalia stetching ove 300 km along the nothwest coast between the towns of Canavon and Exmouth (Figue 1). The egion includes esidents living mainly in Canavon (71%), Exmouth (27%) and Coal Bay (2%). The majoity of land in the aea is held within pastoal leases. Canavon, the southen-most tip of the Ningaloo Coast egion, is 905 km fom Westen Austalia s capital city of Peth. The egion s economy is based on touism, fishing, mining, hoticultue and livestock, with touism being the most impotant economic activity. The Ningaloo Coast is a emote touism destination with a esident population of appoximately It attacts between and touists a yea. The egion has exceptional consevation values, including maine and teestial floa and fauna, kast fomations and subteanean fauna, and emoteness values. Natue-based and wildeness touism is the main souce of income in Exmouth and Coal Bay, and the egion is maketed nationally and intenationally as a pemie touism destination (Westen Austalian Touism Commission, 2003). The two most pominent potected aeas fo touism ae Cape Range National Pak and the Ningaloo Maine Pak, Westen Austalia s pemie maine touism esouce. Gnaaloo is a woking pastoal station and wildeness touism business adjacent to the Ningaloo Maine Pak 150 kilometes noth of Canavon, Westen Austalian. The cuent owne, Paul Richadson, has educed sheep numbes consideably and has concentated on building touism on Gnaaloo. Richadson also owns Thee Mile Camp, the most popula campgound on the coast due to its poximity to popula suf beaks such as Tombstones. In addition to sufing, windsufing and kite-sufing, the aea is also popula fo snokelling, going to the beach, and fishing. Access is along a dit oad of vaiable quality that is most suited to fou wheel dive vehicles. The Ningaloo Coast Regional Stategy (Westen Austalian Figue 1: Map of Ningaloo Planning Commission, 2004) has Gnaaloo station zoned as a touism node 3113

3 that can cate fo up to 500 ovenight visitos. The touism nodes outlined in the Regional Stategy have the capacity to povide a ange of accommodation types and sevices, depending on maste planning and appovals. At pesent Gnaaloo can accommodate a maximum of appoximately 100 visitos, in chalets and bunkhouse accommodation. The Regional Stategy assesses the homestead to be modeately sensitive with low gasses and emnant native species, and pockets of significant coastal vegetation. The aea has been home to gazing fo ove 90 yeas. The touism node is sepaated fom the coast by a mobile sand dune, but is still appealing due to the spectacula coastal views fom its elevated position, and access to snokelling and beach attactions, which ae a shot dive away. The potential exists fo a five-fold incease in people on the station. Although this size is not the plan of the cuent owne, the flexibility in the Regional Stategy means that such gowth is a possibility. Constaints to futhe development include envionmental impacts, infastuctue (wate, waste wate, electicity, seweage) and local opposition to development nea a popula local beach and suf beak. The NDM can help assess diffeent types and sizes of touism development fo Gnaaloo Homestead, demonstated hee though modelling outcomes of two extemes: a caavan pak development and a hotel development, both built to maximum capacity. 3. METHODS The methodology followed hee is based on system dynamics modelling, developed fom the wok of Senge (1990) and Steman (2000) using Vensim softwae. System dynamics has been used successfully in Austalia, including the Pot Douglas (Walke et al., 1999) and Tapesty (Walke et al., 2005) egions. 1 Modelling can facilitate poblem definition and fomulating and testing of potential solutions. Afte addessing the concept of destination development, the emainde of this section addesses the dynamics of the numeical model. The most used model in touism eseach is the Touism Aea Life Cycle (TALC) model developed by Richad Butle (2006). Butle suggests that touism destinations go though a seies of development stages. His six stages ae: Exploation, whee an aea is discoveed by exploes who ae attacted by its aw beauty o cultue. Involvement, whee a gowing steam of visitos begins to catalyse local initiatives to cate exclusively fo visitos. Development, a dynamic gowth peiod whee lage numbes of new visitos come to the egion, and outside investment begins to the detiment of local paticipation and contol. The egion also begins to lose its attactiveness fo exploes. Consolidation, whee visito numbes continue to incease but at a declining ate, egulation inceases, and effots incease to extend the touism season. Stagnation, whee visito numbes stabilise as theshold levels ae eached o exceeded, esulting in economic, social o envionmental poblems. Touism has now become mass maket, with lowe yields. Decline o ejuvenation whee the destination eithe fails to addess its economic, envionmental and social poblems and declines, o thee is a damatic change in the esouce base as the destination einvents itself though finding a new esouce (natual o cultual) to exploit. Heywood (2006: 53) agues that TALC eseaches view the destination though the wong end of the telescope, whee the details melt into amophous blobs. He notes that when viewed closely, the touism oganisations and the people could be obseved making choices continuously (2006: 53). TALC assumes paticula kinds of changes as destinations gow, but does not explicitly and in detail link these changes to the pefeences of diffeent kinds of visitos and the chaacteistics of the egion. Limits to gowth, such as woke, accommodation o esouce (pimaily wate and electicity) shotages, can slow the cycle, and decisions about diffeent kinds of accommodation and egulation also influence the changing visito mix, which influences pattens of activities and expenditue that flow on to cause social and envionmental impacts. As such, the Ningaloo Destination Model is a esponse to Heywood s citicism that TALC eseach needs to become bette attuned to discoveing the inteplay of the dominant foces that cause a destination to advance o decline, paticulaly in espect to capacity management (2006: 55). Befoe tuning to the diffeent elements of the NDM, including the integation with Beth Fulton s ecological model of Ningaloo which geatly expanded the NDM s ange of indicatos and uses, it is wothwhile noting how engagement influences the methodologies of the modelling poject involved, paticulaly at the level of engagement. The NDM was focussed on touism and land use planning, and was engaging with local goups and land management agencies in Peth. Woking with Fulton and he team led to a geate engagement with Fisheies in paticula, but also with mining companies, due to the backgound of he team in the assessment of 1 Paul Walke was also involved in the NDM poject, assisting with the initial wokshops and poviding advice at vaious points in model development. 3114

4 maine industies (including offshoe oil and gas). Fulton s engagement stategy fo the egion was enhanced by the longe tem elationships that the NDM team, paticulaly David Wood and Tod Jones, had built in the egion. Futhemoe, the two geatest aeas of concen in the wokshops wee effects on touism and the envionment. The NDM teams expetise in touism and Fulton s expetise in ecological assessment meant that the two teams wee well positioned to addess the ange of issues that typically wee aised when discussing the eseach in small and lage goups. The key elationships in the NDM ae identified in the conceptual model (Figue 2). The cental element in the touism system is the destination s capacity to accommodate touists. This is cetainly the case fo the Ningaloo Coast whee all of the accommodation is taken up fo school holidays. Befoe detemining the numbe of people that can fit in the egion, we need to identify the total numbe of visito nights duing a specific touism season. This is epesented by the equation: Figue 2: Conceptual Model N t = ( v st l s g t ) Whee N t is the visito nights in touist season t, is the subegion, v is the numbe of visitos, s is the visito segment, l is the length of stay and g is the visito gowth ate. On Ningaloo, thee ae six touist seasons that wee defined though inteviews with touism industy membes and confimed though visito suveys. The accommodation capacity limit on gowth is not though total visito nights, but elated to accommodation pefeences and the numbe of visitos in a subegion on a specific night. Visito nights spent in diffeent accommodation types ae captued by: N = N a ta t st Whee a st is the accommodation of visito segment s in touism season t in subegion. 2 To calculate how many people ae in the subegion on a given night, we calculated the aveage numbe of visito nights pe night fo each of the subegions by dividing (2) by the numbe of nights in touist season t (epesented by n t ): Nta N ta = n t st The limiting feedback loop fo accommodation can theefoe be defined as: 0, N g = XYZ, ta A othewise Whee A is the accommodation capacity in subegion. Economic impacts ae linked to diffeent visito types. As the visito mix changes, the aveage expenditue pe visito also shifts. This infomation is taken fom 1574 visito suveys collected fo the poject. Expenditue can be calculated by: (5) whee E t is the total expenditue at time t in subegion, N st is the visito nights of visito segments s at time t in subegion, and e is the aveage nightly expenditue of visito segments s. A second limiting facto is woke availability, which is constained by a lack of esidential accommodation. Residential accommodation competes with holiday accommodation, paticulaly in Exmouth and Coal Bay, whee a numbe of houses ae ented to visitos. The key vaiable hee is demand fo new wokes, D in subegion, which is calculated though a egionally specific atio between expenditue and wokes equied, j developed in othe eseach (Hughes et al., 2008), (1) (2) (3) (4) 2 Details on the diffeent types of data that can be geneated by the NDM can be found in Chapte 6 of the Socioeconomics of Touism Repot, along with a table summaising the symbols used in the equations in this pape, which ae not included hee due to length estictions. The epot is available fo fee download fom Altenatively, a longe vesion of the pape is available fom the fist autho. 3115

5 D t = N st j e s whee e is aveage visito expenditue pe night fo visito segment s. Wokes accommodation esticts gowth when demand fo wokes outstips housing availability. This can be summaised as: 0, Dt z + y H g = XYZ, othewise whee z is the dependents pe touism woke, y is the othe esidents in egion, and H is the housing capacity. The oiginal conceptual models defined the elationship between visitation and ecological impacts as a limiting feedback loop due to loss of attactions and less shelte fo campsites. Howeve, a liteatue eview of campe pefeences (Daniels & Maion, 2006; Lawson & Manning, 2003) indicated that touists ae moe esponsive to changing levels of egulation than they ae to envionmental impacts. Following lage declines in coal health, visito numbes emained unchanged. A moe likely impact on touist numbes following ecological decline is geate egulation, paticulaly given the location of many campsites and popula touist attactions in the Ningaloo Maine Pak. Suveys of visito pefeences show that diffeent visito segments have diffeent esponses to geate egulation, with some disliking and othes pefeing a moe egulated expeience. This is captued by: g = gps, i iw g = XYZ, othewise whee i is the level of ecological impact, w is the theshold set by agencies managing natual esouces, paticulaly in elation to potected aeas and eceational fishing, and P s is the degee of impact that egulation has on visito gowth due to pefeences of diffeent visitos segments fo each subegion. Changing the level of egulation theefoe has an impact on the visito mix. Social impacts accumulate slowly and ae slow to dissipate. Following events at Byon Bay, social impacts led to a cautious appoach to touism development, slowing accommodation and visito gowth. This is captued by: S A k g k 0 (8) whee S is the social impacts index and k is the effects on accommodation and gowth ate. S is a slow vaiable as it elates to impacts that change slowly, and balance each othe. The visito mix in the egion is affected by both accommodation mix and egulatoy changes, which alte the size and popotion of visito segments. The visito segments wee identified though facto analysis of visito pefeences fo diffeent expeiences on the Ningaloo Coast, explained in moe detail in Appendix E and in Ningaloo Coast Region Visito Statistics (2009), a STCRC epot available fo download 3. The facto analysis evealed thee distinct goups with a numbe of significant esults confiming thei validity. The thee expeiences wee: the comfotable visit, the natue love, and the fishing escape. Each segment has diffeent pattens of activities and expenditue, which in tun dive the ecological and social impacts. Some goups can ceate impacts that decease thei own satisfaction. Fo instance, inceasing numbes of fishing escapees can lead to geate egulation of fishing, which dives them away fom the egion. Some feedback loops ae stonge than othes, leading to changes in the popotions of visito segments, and theefoe pattens of activities and expenditues. Activities can take place in subegions outside of whee visitos ae staying. Fo instance, visitos to Exmouth pedominantly snokel in Cape Range National Pak. Resident activities ae also included though data gatheed using esident suveys. Contols can be exeted on the system by changing the accommodation mix, the time and level at which egulation kicks, and the gowth ate (g). The initial gowth ate can be set by the NDM use, as it is difficult to pedict how touism will gow and develop, and a andom gowth ate leads to esults that ae difficult to intepet and theefoe contibute less to leaning. Howeve, feedback loops will alte gowth ates acoss model uns. (7) (5) (6)

6 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Fishing Escapees Natue Loves Comfotable Campes Figue 3.1: Popotional change in visito segments in the egion with the addition of 400 hotel beds at Gnaaloo Station ( ). The final set of outputs is linked to accommodation athe than to visito segments, although visito segments do have pefeences fo diffeent accommodation types. Wate and electicity data was collected diectly fom accommodation povides and though ageements with Hoizon Powe and the Wate Copoation. Human waste was calculated using figues fo the aveage waste poduced by humans. With the exception of electicity use in hotels, wate and electicity wee calculated using the nights in a paticula accommodation type: Ot = ( N oa ) = n ta Figue 3.1: Popotional change in visito segments in the egion with the addition of 400 caavan beds at Gnaaloo Station ( ). whee o epesents wate use, electicity use with the exception of hotels, and waste geneation and O is total esouce use fo egion at time t. Data on electicity use in hotels indicates that they use lagest amounts of electicity duing the off-season when visitation is at its lowest due to the high tempeatues in the Austalian summe. Electicity demand in hotels was elative to the season t and the accommodation capacity A (9) Q t = = ( Aq n t ) whee Q is total electicity used by a hotel and q is the electicity used pe bedoom in season t. (10) 4. RESULTS: The Ningaloo Destination Model (NDM) was un to test the diffeential impacts of two accommodation options at Gnaaloo Station, the fist being the addition of 400 caavan pak beds, and the second being the addition of 400 hotel beds. In both cases the model uns assumed the exta beds would be added in 2016 and the site would be opeating at full capacity. Campgounds wee atificially capped at thei 2007 level so that gowth in visitos staying in campsites would not distot the specific impacts of exta caavan pak and hotel beds. Gowth ates wee also set substantially highe fo natue loves and comfotable campes as they stat fom a low base in the egion, and they ae the goups with stong pefeences fo caavan paks and hotels. Gowth ates fo fishing escapees was set at 0.1%, since this goup is aleady vey lage (see figues 2 and 3), and they dislike infastuctue such as sealed oads and toilets (as indicated though ou visito suveys, Jones et al., 2009). The esults fom the two model uns ae discussed below. The social impacts of the NDM discussed in the pevious chapte ae not discussed hee as they ae specific to the town sites whee the communities eside. The visito mix in the egion changes substantially with the advent of new accommodation. Adding 400 new hotel beds to Gnaaloo inceases the popotion of natue loves visiting the egion fom 14% in 2007 to 32% in 2037, while the popotion of comfotable campes ises only slightly in the same timefame (Figue 3.1). In contast, adding 400 caavan pak beds to Gnaaloo switches this elationship, with the popotion of comfotable campes inceasing fom 17% in 2007 to 36% in 2037, and natue loves emaining elatively steady on 18% (Figue 3.2). Because both model uns cap campsite numbes in 2007, gowth in the popotion of fishing escapees is limited. This goup actually shinks in size in both scenaios because of the feedback loop which has fishing escapees avoiding aeas that become moe egulated in esponse to gowing visito numbes, and because of competition fom othe goups. In the NDM, the vaiation between visito segments and the accommodation they stay in dives impact pattens aound Gnaaloo Station. The 400 hotel bed scenaio geneates moe visito nights than 3117

7 400 caavan pak beds; howeve, because hotel visitos on aveage have shote stays in the egion, a hotel equies moe visitos than a caavan pak to geneate a compaable numbe of visito nights. Thus, the diffeence in visito nights between the two uns at t=30 is less than one pecent. The influence of accommodation types Figue 4: Compaison of touism and economic impacts in the Ningaloo Region becomes appaent when caused by adding 400 caavan pak beds vesus 400 hotel beds to Gnaaloo examining the activity-effot of visitos. Figue 4 station (pecent change fom ). compaes impacts of the two scenaios on visito activities by 2037 (t=30). The hotel scenaio geneates moe beach, snokelling, 110% sightseeing, and sufing activity; wheeas the caavan pak scenaio geneates moe fishing activity, eflecting the geate desie of visitos who stay in caavan paks to fish compaed to visitos who stay in hotels. In both uns snokelling is the activity that inceases the most (107% by 2037 fo the hotel scenaio, 79% fo the caavan pak scenaio). Figue 4 also compaes the elative impacts of the two scenaios on jobs and visito expenditue by Although the hotel scenaio has a stonge positive impact in job geneation and visito expenditue, the diffeence in expenditue is not as geat as would be expected in othe locations. This is because some Ningaloo visitos, paticulaly backpackes and Austalians on extended self-dive holidays, will stay in caavan paks while still spending money on activities such as whale shak tous. In both scenaios, campgounds ae displaced by the othe foms of accommodation, diving up the aveage nightly expenditue. The hotel scenaio ceates the geatest incease in nightly spend: 15% to $63.75 by While the additional jobs hotel bings have positive social impacts, it also means moe esidents on the pastoal stations, who bing thei own esouce and envionmental impacts (all of which ae included in the esults). The positive impacts of the hotel scenaio in tems of jobs and expenditue need to be weighed against a hotel s geate demand fo esouces (Figue 5). Wate equiements of a hotel ae substantially geate than a caavan pak. By 2037, the hotel scenaio esults in a 258% incease in wate demand on pastoal stations, vesus a 107% Figue 5: Compaison of esouce impacts on Ningaloo pastoal stations, caused by adding 400 caavan pak beds vesus 400 hotel beds to Gnaaloo station (pecent change fom ). Figue 6: Compaison of ecological impacts on the Ningaloo egion, caused by adding 400 caavan pak beds vesus 400 hotel beds to Gnaaloo station (pecent change fom ). 4 It should be noted that the expenditue figues do not take CPI inceases into account (in othe wods, they ae in 2007 dolla values). 3118

8 100% incease fo the caavan pak scenaio. Howeve, the geatest diffeence is in electicity demand, with a hotel diving an electicity use up 400% ove 30 yeas. It should be noted that the figues used in these model uns ae based on existing pactices. It is possible that futue developments could be equied o encouaged to educe thei powe and wate demand, theeby educing the size of thei impact. Ecological impacts fo the two scenaios (Figue 6) wee geneated using the CSIRO s Ningaloo-Exmouth Ecopath, with Ecosim model. In both scenaios, thee ae substantial eductions in fish stocks and catch ates. Howeve, most of the fishing effot can be attibuted to visitos staying in campsites, who, by 2037, still amount to ove 69% of total visitos in both development scenaios. Nonetheless, the caavan pak scenaio has a distinctly geate impact on catch ates and fish stocks when compaed to the hotel, with a espective 23% vesus 17% eduction in empeo (lethinid) stocks by This is due to geate fishing effot on the pat of people who stay in caavan paks. Coal impacts ae simila unde both scenaios. Snokelling is the most popula activity fo all visito segments, and theefoe inceases substantially with any type of accommodation expansion. Although snokelling effot inceases by a lage amount unde the hotel scenaio, this effect is buffeed somewhat by the fact that hotels attact a geate popotion of natue loves, who ae moe likely than othe visito segments to self egulate thei snokelling to minimise coal damage. 5. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION Thee ae tadeoffs in thee pimay aeas when compaing a hotel and a caavan pak in an envionmentally sensitive and emote location like Gnaaloo Bay. Fist, the ecology of the aea is bette seved by a hotel as its tempoay esidents ae less disposed to extactive activities like eceational fishing. It would be possible, and pobably moe effective, to mitigate eceational fishing impacts though moe estictive fishing egulations, but these ae politically unpopula and difficult to enfoce. Additionally, hotel esidents tend to take geate cae aound coal when snokelling, although educational pogams could impove self-egulation of snokelling among caavan pak guests. Second, hotels geneate moe touist expenditue, diving gowth in jobs and goss egional poduct. Howeve, the expenditue diffeence between hotels and caavan paks is less maked in Ningaloo than othe locations, due to the kinds of expeiences that touists ae seeking in the egion and the way that a lack of hotel beds acoss the egion has pushed touists into chalet and cabin accommodation in caavan paks. Thid, the esouce equiements of a hotel ae fa geate than a caavan pak, given cuent pactices in the egion. It is likely that emoteness and poximity to Ningaloo Reef will esult in coastal developments having to povide thei own wate and electicity, and have stingent measues fo disposal of waste including waste wate. Povision of wate on the west side of Cape Range is aleady a vexed issue, and thee is little infomation about the quality of the wate o the implications fo Ningaloo Reef. Electicity is also an issue, with the most likely scenaio being eithe diesel (cuent pactice), o a mix of diesel as base load and enewable enegy souces. Thus eductions in wate, enegy and waste equiements ae impotant in these cicumstances. Planning conditions fo futue accommodation could equie limits on electicity use, wate use and waste geneated pe visito night. Developes could also be equied to demonstate how they would meet and monito these conditions. Anothe option would be to educe the size of development nodes, o expeiment with the accommodation mix. The fist point in paticula indicates the usefulness of multi-model pojects due to the expansion of indicatos if it is possible to integate diffeent models. Receational fishing was confimed though the Ningaloo Collaboation Cluste to have the lagest impact on the ecology of the egion, and though the modelling it was possible to exploe the diffeent ways that this can be managed without sevee estictions on the positive economic and social benefits, and the ways that futue gowth can contain the level of eceational fishing of additional visitos. While the ecological model geneated a wide ange of impacts fo the NDM, the NDM connected the ecological model with land use planning and stategic touism planning. Futhemoe, the NDM was incopoated into the Ningaloo Invito Model, a multi-secto model of the entie egion that makes use of a vaiety of modelling techniques. The dynamics of the NDM ae detemined by the choices of touists within the model and the capacity constaints set by the model uses. As such, the NDM moves away fom the deteministic assumption that the dynamics of the TALC model will automatically apply to Ningaloo, while captuing impotant aspects identified by Butle. The visito mix is cental to the dynamics of both the NDM and TALC as visito pefeences dive changes in both. The NDM uses visito pefeences and the egion s capacities to detemine the dynamics of change. It is theefoe possible, by choosing diffeent levels and types of accommodation, to avoid the touism life cycle, which could be enhanced futhe though tageted maketing and egulatoy changes. Capacities should not efe only to the site and its immediate suounds in a touism context; they should also addess the touists activities, which dive both the positive and negative impacts on communities and the attactions that daw touists to the egion, and the touists esouce use. It is impotant to focus on the capacities that slow and 3119

9 alte egional touism changes, such as: visito accommodation, sticte egulatoy egimes, esidential accommodation, employee availability and social impacts. In paticula, the NDM goes beyond TALC with egad to egulation, which potects the esouce, but also dives changes in the visito mix. In shot it is not enough to assume that touism life cycle will occu when it is possible to exploe how capacity management can exet contol ove the futue of a touism destination. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Ningaloo Destination Model was funded by the CSIRO s Wealth fom Oceans Flagship and the Sustainable Touism Coopeative Reseach Cente, a Fedeal Govenment initiative. It was pat of the Ningaloo Collaboation Cluste goup of pojects. This chapte utilised data fom the Ningaloo Destination Model and the CSIRO s Ecopath with Ecosim model implemented by Beth Fulton. The authos also would like to acknowledge Jean-Paul Osini s contibution to developing the Ningaloo Destination Model. REFERENCES Bamwell, B., & Lane, B. (1999). Collaboation and Patneships fo Sustainable Touism. Jounal of Sustainable Touism, 7, Butle, R. W. (2006). The Concept of a Touist Aea Cycle of Evolution: Implications fo Management of Resouces. In R. W. Butle (Ed.), The Touism Aea Life Cycle Vol. 1. Applications and Modifications (pp. 3-12). Clevedon: Channel View. Daniels, M., & Maion, J. (2006). Visito evaluations of management actions at a highly impacted Appalachian Tail camping aea. Envionmental Management, 38(6), Depatment of Consevation and Land Management. (2004). Ningaloo maine Pak Daft Management Plan. Peth: Depatment of Consevation and Land Management. Hall, C. M. (2000). Touism Planning: Policies, Pocesses and Relationships. Halow, UK: Pentice Hall. Heywood, K. M. (2006). Evolution of touism aeas and the touism industy. In R. Butle (Ed.), The Touism Aea Life Cycle Vol.1: Applications and modifications (pp ). Clevedon: Channel View. Holling, C. S., & Gundeson, L. H. (2002). Resilience and adaptive cycles. In L. H. Gundeson & C. S. Holling (Eds.), Panachy: Undestanding Tansfomations in Human and Natual Systems (pp ). Washington D.C.: Island Pess. Hughes, M., Jones, T., Deey, M., Wood, D., Fedline, L., Whitely, Z., et al. (2008). Estimating the Economic, Social and Envionmental Value of Touism to Potected Aeas. Gold Coast: Sustainable Touism Coopeative Reseach Cente. Inskeep, E. (1991). Touism Planning: an Integated and Sustainable Appoach. New Yok: Van Nostand Reinhold. Jones, T., Glasson, J., Wood, D., & Fulton, B. (2011a). Regional Planning and Resilient Futues: Destination Modelling and Touism Development - the case of the Ningaloo Coastal Region in Westen Austalia. Planning Pactice and Reseach, 26(4), Jones, T., Wood, D., Hughes, M., Deey, M., Fedline, L., Jones, R.,... Catlin, J. (2011b). Ningaloo Collaboation Cluste: Exploing the Socio-economics of Touism though the Ningaloo Destination Model. Canbea: CSIRO. Jones, T., Hughes, M., Wood, D., Lewis, A., & Chandle, P. (2009). Ningaloo Coast Region Visito Statistics: Collected fo the Ningaloo Destination Modelling Poject. Gold Coast: Sustainable Touism Coopeative Reseach Cente. Lawson, S., & Manning, R. (2003). Reseach to guide management of backcounty camping at Isle Royale National Pak: Pat II - pesciptive eseach. Jounal of Pak and Receation Administation, 21(3), Schianetz, K., Jones, T., Kavanagh, L., Walke, P. A., Lockington, D., & Wood, D. (2009). The pacticalities of a leaning touism destination: a case study of the Ningaloo Coast. Intenational Jounal of Touism Reseach, 11(6), Schianetz, K., Kavanagh, L., & Lockington, D. (2007). The leaning touism destination: the potential of a leaning oganisation appoach fo impoving the sustainability of touism destinations. Touism Management, 28(6), Senge, P. M. (1990). The Fifth Discipline: The At and Pactice of the Leaning Oganization. New Yok: Cuency Doubleday. Steman, J. D. (Ed.). (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling fo a Complex Wold Boston: Iwin/McGaw-Hill. Walke, P., Lee, D., Goddad, R., Kelly, G., & Pedesen, J. (2005). Regional Touism Modelling: the Southwest Tapesty. Goldcoast, Austalia: Sustainable Touism Coopeative Reseach Cente. Walke, P. A., Geine, R., McDonald, D., & Lyne, V. (1999). The touism futues simulato: a systems thinking appoach. Envionmental Modelling and Softwae, 14,