Annual Energy Outlook 2015

Transcription

1 Annual Energy Outlook 215 for Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Annual Conference 215 Tokyo, Japan by Sam Napolitano Director of the Office of Integrated and International Energy Analysis U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

2 Key results from AEO215 In most AEO215 cases, U.S. net energy imports, including all fuels, decline and ultimately end by 23 for the first time since the 195s Strong growth in domestic production of crude oil from tight formations through 22 and limited growth in domestic demand after 22 leads to a decline in net petroleum and other liquids imports The United States transitions from being a net importer of natural gas to a net exporter by 217 in all cases U.S. energy consumption grows at a modest rate over the projection with reductions in energy intensity resulting from improved technologies and trends driven by existing laws and regulations Renewables provide an increased share of electricity generation, reflecting rising long-term natural gas prices and the high capital costs of new coal and nuclear generation capacity 2

3 Key results from AEO215 (continued) Improved efficiency of energy consumption in end-use sectors and a shift away from more carbon-intensive fuels help to stabilize U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, which remain below the 25 level through 24 Growth of domestic crude oil and natural gas production varies significantly across regions and cases, leading to shifts in crude oil and natural gas flows between regions, requiring infrastructure adjustments The AEO215 cases generally reflect current policies, including final regulations and the sunset of tax credits under current law; consistent with this approach, EPA s proposed Clean Power Plan rules for existing fossil-fired electric generating units or the effects of relaxing current limits on crude oil exports are not considered in AEO215 3

4 U.S. net energy imports continue to decline in the near term, reflecting increased oil and natural gas production coupled with slow demand growth net imports quadrillion Btu 3 History Low Oil Price High Economic Growth Reference Low Economic Growth High Oil Price High Oil and Gas Resource Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 June 4, 215 4

5 U.S. crude oil production rises above previous historical highs before 22 in all AEO215 cases, with a range of longer-term outcomes U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day 2 History Reference High Oil and Gas Resource Low Oil Price 15 1 U.S. maximum production level of 9.6 million barrels per day in 197 Tight oil 5 Lower 48 offshore Other lower 48 onshore Alaska Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 5

6 Combination of increased tight oil production and higher fuel efficiency drive projected decline in oil imports U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day 25 History Net petroleum and other liquids imports 33% 14% 21% Natural gas plant liquids 17% 21% 1 14% 17% 29% Tight oil production 22% 5 Other crude oil production (excluding tight) 23% 25% 27% Other 14% 12% 12% Note: Other includes refinery gain, biofuels production, all stock withdrawals, and other domestic sources of liquid fuels Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 6

7 Shale resources remain the dominant source of U.S. natural gas production growth U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 213 Shale gas and tight oil plays billion cubic feet per day 1 Other lower 48 onshore Tight gas 3 5 Coalbed methane 2 Lower 48 offshore Alaska Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 7

8 Projected U.S. natural gas exports reflect the spread between domestic natural gas prices and world energy prices U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet History 213 Alaska LNG exports billion cubic feet per day Lower 48 states LNG exports Pipeline exports to Mexico Pipeline exports to Canada Pipeline imports from Canada -1 High Oil and Gas LNG imports Reference Low Oil Price Resource Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 8

9 Reductions in energy intensity largely offset impact of GDP growth, leading to slow projected growth in energy use U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu 12 History Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels) Natural gas Coal Nuclear Liquid biofuels 27% 8% 18% 8% 1% 27% 9% 19% 8% 1% 29% 1% 18% 8% 1% 2 Petroleum and other liquids 36% 35% 33% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 9

10 U.S. coal production is sensitive to economic and market conditions coal production High Oil Price High Economic Growth million short tons Low Oil Price Reference 1,4 Low Economic Growth High Oil and Gas Resource 1,2 1, Source: Annual Energy Outlook 215 June 4, 215 1

11 Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in renewables and gas-fired generation electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 13% History % 27% Natural gas 31% % 11% 53% 13% 39% Renewables 1 Petroleum and other liquids 19% 18% 19% Nuclear 16% 1% 1% 1% 199 4% % 38% Coal 18% 34% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 11

12 Growth in wind and solar generation meets a significant portion of projected total electric load growth in all AEO215 cases U.S. renewable generation in all sectors by fuel billion kilowatthours 1, , Wind 75 Solar Reference High Oil Price Low Oil Price High Oil and Gas Resource Low Economic Growth High Economic Growth Biomass and waste Geothermal Conventional hydroelectric power Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

13 CO 2 emissions are sensitive to the influence of future economic growth and energy price trends on energy consumption carbon dioxide emissions million metric tons 6,5 History 213 High Oil and Gas Resource 6, High Economic Growth Low Oil Price 5,5 High Oil Price Reference 5, Low Economic Growth 4, Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 June 4,

14 Growth of onshore crude oil production varies across supply regions, affecting pipeline and midstream infrastructure needs change between 213 and 24 in U.S. lower 48 onshore crude oil production by region million barrels per day Dakotas/Rocky Mountains West Coast Southwest East Gulf Coast Reference Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Midcontinent 4.2 Low Oil Price Low Economic High Oil and High Oil Price Growth Gas Resource 4.1 High Economic Growth 14

15 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Annual Energy Outlook Short-Term Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Today In Energy Monthly Energy Review State Energy Portal Drilling Productivity Report 15

16 Supplemental slides 16

17 Growth in U.S. energy production outstrips consumption leading to a balance in United States energy imports and exports U.S. energy production and consumption quadrillion Btu History Consumption -1% 9 8 Net imports 13% 7 Production Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 17

18 Crude oil price projection is lower in the AEO215 Reference case than in AEO214, particularly in the near term Brent crude oil spot price 213 dollars per barrel 16 History AEO214 8 AEO Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case and Annual Energy Outlook 214 Reference case 18

19 AEO215 explores scenarios that encompass a wide range of future crude oil price paths Brent crude oil spot price 213 dollars per barrel 25 2 History 213 High Oil Price 15 Reference 1 5 High Oil and Gas Resource Low Oil Price Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

20 Net liquids imports provide a declining share of U.S. liquid fuels supply in most AEO215 cases; in two cases the nation becomes a net exporter net crude oil and petroleum product imports as a percentage of total U.S. supply percent History High Oil Price Low Oil Price Reference -2 High Oil and Gas Resource Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 2

21 U.S. net exports of petroleum products vary with the level of domestic oil production given current limits on U.S. crude oil exports U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day History Total petroleum product net exports High Oil and Gas Resource Low Oil Price Reference Reference High Oil and Gas 213 Resource 213 Total petroleum product net exports Low Oil Price Other petroleum product exports Motor gasoline exports 4 Distillate exports Other petroleum product imports -4 Distillate imports Motor gasoline imports Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

22 Future domestic natural gas prices depend on both domestic resource availability and world energy prices average Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas 213 dollars per million Btu History High Oil Price Reference 6 Low Oil Price 3 High Oil and Gas Resource Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

23 Difference between U.S. natural gas and crude oil prices grows through 24 energy spot prices 213 dollars per million Btu History Brent crude oil spot price 2 15 Ratio: Ratio: Oil to gas price ratio: 2.6 Henry Hub spot price Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 23

24 Level of net natural gas trade, including LNG exports, depends largely on resource levels and oil prices U.S. total net natural gas imports trillion cubic feet History billion cubic feet per day Low Oil Price Reference High Oil Price High Oil and Gas Resource Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

25 Natural gas consumption growth is driven by increased use in all sectors except residential U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet 35 3 History Residential Commercial Transportation** Electric power billion cubic feet per day Industrial* Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel **Includes pipeline fuel 25

26 Industrial energy use rises with growth of shale gas supply industrial sector total delivered energy consumption quadrillion Btu High Economic Growth 3 Reference 25 Low Economic Growth Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

27 Growth in manufacturing output and use of natural gas reflect high natural gas supply and low prices, particularly in near term manufacturing natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu billion cubic feet per day Food Bulk chemicals Refining and related Other manufacturing Metal based durables Iron and steel Paper 21 Aluminum Glass Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 27

28 In the transportation sector, motor gasoline use declines; diesel fuel, jet fuel, and natural gas use all grow transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History Other* 24% 1% 3% 4% Diesel Jet fuel Ethanol 1% 31% 13% 4% CNG/LNG 2% 31% 14% 5% 3% 3% 5 58% Motor gasoline 48% 44% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case *Includes aviation gasoline, propane, residual fuel oil, lubricants, electricity, and liquid hydrogen 28

29 Technology and policy promotes slower growth of transportation energy demand delivered transportation sector energy consumption quadrillion Btu History Low Oil Price High Economic Growth High Oil and Gas Resource 26 Reference High Oil Price 24 Low Economic Growth Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

30 Growth in electricity use slows, but electricity use still increases by 24% from 213 to 24 U.S. electricity use and GDP percent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods) Electricity use History 213 Period Average Growth Electricity use GDP 195s s s s s Gross domestic product Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 3

31 Non-hydro renewable generation grows to double hydropower generation by 24 renewable electricity generation by fuel type billion kilowatthours 75 History Conventional Hydroelectric Power Wind 15 Solar Geothermal Biomass Municipal waste/landfill gas Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 31

32 Electricity prices increase with rising fuel costs and expenditures for electric transmission and distribution infrastructure average retail electricity prices 213 cents per kilowatthour 13 High Oil Price 12 High Economic Growth Reference 11 1 Low Oil Price High Oil and Gas Resource Low Economic Growth Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

33 CO 2 emissions per dollar of GDP decline faster than energy use per dollar of GDP with a shift towards lower-carbon fuels energy and emission intensity index, 25=1 History Energy use per capita Energy use per 29 dollar of GDP Carbon dioxide emissions per 29 dollar GDP Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 33