City of Dallas Population and Water Demand Forecasts. Public Meeting May 16, 2013
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1 City of Dallas Population and Water Demand Forecasts Public Meeting May 16, 2013
2 Background Dallas Water Utilities (DWU) is updating its Long Range Water Supply Plan (LRWSP) The 4 th cycle of State and Regional water planning is currently underway DWU is working with its wholesale customer cities and the Region C Planning Group (Region C WPG) to review the recently released Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) population and gallons per capita per day (GPCD) forecasts DWU will provide its projections and recommended strategies to the Region C WPG for consideration and incorporation into the regional plan 2
3 Goal of Today s Workshop Review the draft TWDB population and GPCD forecasts Compare the TWDB draft forecasts to prior DWU planning studies Gather public input on population and GPCD for the development of DWU s water demand projections 3
4 City of Dallas Population Projections
5 TWDB Population Forecasts County-level population forecasts were made by the State Demographer and generally reflect long-term growth trends From the State Demographer forecasts, TWDB develops forecasts for cities, other water suppliers and unincorporated areas (termed County Other) within each county The most recent TWDB population forecast for the City of Dallas included virtually no growth in the city for the next 50 years, but included significant growth in County Other TWDB has indicated they believe that a portion of the County Other population should be allocated back to the City of Dallas and will consider Dallas proposed modifications to the population forecast 5
6 Draft Population Projections DWU is reviewing three alternate City of Dallas population projections High Growth Rate Medium Growth Rate Low Growth Rate Factors driving growth within the City of Dallas Green space development Dallas zoning and regulatory provisions foster higher densities relative to other suburban cities Expansion of service area 6
7 High Growth Rate Draft Population Projection County Other population is held constant over time at its current 2010 population City of Dallas is allocated all remaining County Other population growth 2.2 million people by 2070 Increase of approximately 1.0 million people from today s City of Dallas population 7
8 Medium Growth Rate Draft Population Projection Smaller portion of County Other population is allocated to City of Dallas for moderated growth rate over time City of Dallas growth rate begins to level out in later years of the forecast 1.9 million people by 2070 Increase of approximately 0.7 million people from today s City of Dallas population 8
9 Low Case Growth Rate Draft Population Projection Even smaller portion of County Other population reallocated to City of Dallas over time, eventually reducing the TWDB s County Other population by about one-half City of Dallas population increases over 50 years, and shows even more moderated growth in later years 1.7 million people by 2070 Increase of approximately 0.5 million people from today s City of Dallas population 9
10 Dallas County City of Dallas 10
11 Draft 11 11
12 City of Dallas Water Demand Forecasts
13 TWDB Municipal Per Capita Use Assumptions TWDB draft forecasts assumed 2011 was the representative hot-dry year for identifying the GPCD for all utilities in the State TWDB reduces GPCD over time to account for anticipated water conservation savings arising from the State Water Efficient Plumbing Bill TWDB will allow corrections to their 2011 GPCD calculations and will also consider other methods for determining the appropriate GPCD value 13
14 How TWDB determines Municipal Per Capita Use Industrial, Steam Electric, Mining and Agricultural uses are subtracted from Total Water Use to determine Municipal Use Municipal use is defined as residential and commercial uses ONLY City of Dallas Municipal Use does not include Wholesale Customer Cities Use Municipal Gallons per Capita Per Day (GPCD) = (Annual Municipal Use / 365 days) (Population) 14
15 City of Dallas Draft Municipal Per Capita Use TWDB s draft forecast indicates a 2011 base value of 193 GPCD for the City of Dallas After reviewing the TWDB s calculations, DWU corrected reporting inaccuracies, which resulted in a revised 2011 value of 200 GPCD Updated GPCD value incorporates corrected City of Dallas 2011 population and water diversion data 15
16 City of Dallas Draft Municipal Per Capita Use DWU is considering an alternative to the TWDB 2011 hot-dry year The Dallas average for three recent hot-dry years (2006, 2007 and 2011) was 223 GPCD Recent, even more severe dry years for the North Texas region ( ), should be reflected in planning considerations 16
17 The downward trend of these forecasts reflects water savings arising from the State Water Efficient Plumbing Bill. 17
18 City of Dallas Draft Water Demand Projections The various population and GPCD projections combine to produce 9 alternate water demand forecasts Water demand forecasts are calculated by multiplying population and GPCD Dallas is currently evaluating which projection most accurately reflects anticipated future needs 18
19 This is the prior 2011 Region C forecast for the DWU regional system. Region C will update this forecast later this year. Currently, DWU is considering the Medium Growth Rate Population projection and average 2006/07/11 GPCD as the assumptions underlying its municipal water demand forecast 19
20 Next Steps for City of Dallas Water Demand Forecasts DWU is seeking public input on City of Dallas Population and GPCD projections After these are final, they will be sent to the Reg. C Water Planning Group City of Dallas Municipal Water Demand currently accounts for about half of DWU s Regional System Demand DWU s Regional System Demand includes service to 26 other utilities After Dallas customer cities submit final demand projections to Region C, DWU will then finalize the system demand projection for its own plan 20
21 Public Input: Based on this presentation, are there other factors you believe should be considered in developing Dallas population and GPCD projections? Questions or Comments? 21
22 Coordination of Forecasts DWU needs any written comments on these projections by May 27 th, so it can consider these in its recommendations to Region C and for its own planning purposes. Please submit comments to: - or - Ben Stephenson, P.E., Senior Engineer Planning Dept. City of Dallas Water Utilities 1500 Marilla Street, 4AS Dallas, Texas ben.stephenson@dallascityhall.com 22
23 Next Steps for the DWU LRWSP Time Period June 1, 2013 Description City of Dallas Population and Water Demand Forecasts due to Region C July Region C considers/forwards to TWDB August TWDB considers and adopts September 2013 Develop Water Demand Projections for DWU Service Area and identify all unmet needs 2014 Water Supply Strategy Evaluation Aug 2014 Nov/Dec 2014 Tentative Public Meeting on proposed Water Management Strategies Dallas City Council approval of Recommended Water Management Strategies and Alternate Strategies Plan updates will be available on the LRWSP web page and you may also to provide questions or comments. Please visit: 23
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