Scientific Findings on Climate Change and Its Implications to Indonesia s National Contributions at the Global Level

Transcription

1 Workshop Report : Scientific Findings on Climate Change and Its Implications to Indonesia s National Contributions at the Global Level Based on multi-stakeholders discussion on November 11th 2014 Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) energy for equitable development

2 Scientific Findings on Climate Change and Its Implications to Indonesia s National Contributions at the Global Level Introduction On November 11th 2014, Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) conducted a discussion entitled Temuan Ilmiah Perubahan Iklim dan Implikasinya pada Kontribusi Nasional Indonesia di Tingkat Global (Scientific Findings on Climate Change and Its Implications to Indonesia s National Contributions at the Global Level). This workshop was conducted to further explore the implication of IPCC AR-5 findings to the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions 1 that Indonesia have to submit. This workshop attended by multi-stakeholders from provincial government, government (sector), civil society organizations and academic. The resource-persons of the workshop are: 1. Dr. Agus Supangat, the coordinator of Capacity Building and Research and Development Division of National Council on Climate Change (DNPI), who is also an ocean scientist; 2. Moekti Handajani Soejachmoen, Secretary of International Negotiation Working Group at the National Council on Climate Change; 3. Dr. Hardiv Situmeang, the chairman of Indonesia National Committee for World Energy Council; before, he was the Director of ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). 1 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) has been agreed by Parties at the international climate change negotiation which was decided through Decision 1/CP19 1

3 1. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and Its Impacts to Indonesia The fifth assessment report of IPCC was launched on November 1st 2014 which consists of 4 reports: Working Group 1 is the Physical Science Basis, Working Group 2 is about climate change adaptation, Working Group 3 is climate change mitigation, and the last one is the synthesis report that consists summary of all the existing working group reports. The fifth assessment report contains the following findings: (i) The fifth assessment report is focusing on the social-economy aspect. This report clearly defines that the economy sectors will majorly be affected by climate change. Many people even say that IPCC AR 5 is very much relevant with the business sector. (ii) The remaining carbon budget that can be used by both developed and developing countries to avoid the average temperature increasing to exceed 2o C, is 275 GtCO2. In the period of , 515 GtCO2 has been emitted and fill the atmospheric space. IPCC AR 5 is using scenarios called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) which representing the radiative forcing that is received by the earth. There are 4 scenarios RCP that were offered by IPCC AR 5: RCP 2.6 (aggressive mitigation actions); RCP 8.5 (business as usual); RCP 6.0 (medium-high) and RCP 4.5 (medium-low). The scenarios can be seen in Figure 1 Figure 1 RCP Scenarios that are used in IPCC AR 5 Source : Supangat 2 From all scenarios that were offered by IPCC, it is expected that Parties will agree to take the aggressive mitigation scenario (RCP 2.6, see Figure 2) 2 Presentation : Memasyarakatkan Adaptasi dan Mitigasi Perubahan Iklim : Sekilas The IPCC s Fifth Assessment Report, delivered at IESR s workshop entitled, Temuan Ilmiah Perubahan Iklim dan Implikasinya Pada Kontribusi Nasional Indonesia di Tingkat Global 2

4 Figure 2 Carbon Crossroads Scenario Source : Supangat 3 (iii) Several scientific findings that were presented in the IPCC AR 5 are: - Global sea level is rising 0,19 m in the period of The ocean has absorbed around 3% of the carbon dioxide that were emitted through human activities to date. As this cannot be avoided and if it cannot be further mitigated, then the carbon absorption will increase the acidity of the ocean, which leads to the coral bleaching. This also will lead to the warmer temperature of the ocean, reduce the fish population which results to farther fishing area. Therefore, future strategy is needed in regards to the food security from the ocean source. - Global sea level is projected to increase this century. In consequences there are 42 million people in Indonesia who are living 10 m below the sea level 4. A strategy should then be developed in regards to these areas to ensure the future of the population. 3 Supangat, Agus, a presentation entitled, Memasyarakatkan Adaptasi dan Mitigasi Perubahan Iklim : Sekilas The IPCC s Fifth Assessment Report, delivered at IESR s workshop, Temuan Ilmiah Perubahan Iklim dan Implikasinya Pada Kontribusi Nasional Indonesia di Tingkat Global 4 This statement was delivered by Dr. Agus Supangat when he presenting the content of IPCC AR 5 at IESR s workshop entitled Temuan Ilmiah Perubahan Iklim dan Implikasinya Pada Kontribusi Nasional Indonesia di Tingkat Global. 3

5 - Emission increasing is not only caused by the rising population, but it is also caused by the increasing livelihood of the people. This fact shows that lifestyles give significant impact to the increasing of greenhouse gases emissions. - The average temperature will increase around 3o-5o C at the end of century, compare to the pre-industrial era. The fifth IPCC report identified several climate change impacts that will occur, such as food and water scarcity, increasing number of people who are needed to be relocated, increasing of poverty and coastal flood. - To avoid the temperature increasing beyond 2oC, changes are needed in using technology and lifestyle, which need to be applied in all sectors and areas. This also stated that not only developed countries that have to do mitigation actions, but also developing countries. Possible mitigation actions can be done through energy efficiency, low carbon energy utilization that can be achieved through technology, increasing carbon sinks, and the lifestyle changes. 2. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) and the Elements of 2015 Agreement Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) was agreed under the Ad hoc Working Group on Durban Platform (ADP) in COP 19 Warsaw, which is the interpretation of the Applicable to All Parties principle. ADP was established at COP 17 Durban in 2011 as a negotiation forum at global scale, which specifically discuss on possible implemented measures that concretely operate to manage, control and overcome the climate change issues after ADP was established to ensure that all efforts in dealing and overcoming climate change, should not only be done by 2020, but it should also go beyond Warsaw decision also decided that INDC should be submitted at the first quarter of 2015 by those Parties ready to do so 5. Until today, INDC is still highly related with mitigation, but it is still open for each Parties to submit INDC on adaptation, financing, capacity building and technology transfer. There is a shifting in perspective and approaches compare to the one that was used since Climate Change Convention was agreed in Until 2020, developed countries are the ones that have to reduce the emissions and make further commitment in all aspects of climate change. But after 2020, it is expected, that ADP shall come up with a legally outcome, which can be implemented, apply equivalently to all Parties in accordance to the capacity of each individual Party. Participations from wider stakeholders should be reflected from the submitted INDC. The approach that is currently used to define the magnitude INDC is the combined approach. This approach was chosen to make sure that whatever option Parties are willing to undergo for their INDC, aggregately should contribute to avoid global average temperature to not exceed 2 o C. 5 Decision 1/CP19 para 2b 4

6 Figure 3 The Combined Approach 6 Figure 3 describes the combined approach that currently is being discussed under the agenda of ADP. INDC is a bottom-up approach, but the achievement of the objective of the Convention, which is fed by IPCC is a top-down approach. Both approaches should be synchronized, so that all INDCs that will be implemented by each Parties could contribute to the objective of the Convention in aggregate, where the average temperature increment should not exceed the agreed target; whether it is 2 o C or 1,5 o C. To see whether the INDC of Parties are in accordance to their individual capacity, each Party should provide the initial upfront information that could represent the country circumstances. This information could then be a consideration by all Parties, whether one country can pursue the submitted INDC with the intended coverage, type, and the amount of contribution, or the INDC needs to be readjusted or changed. In pursuing the INDC, there s a term of no back sliding which means that in submitting the INDCs, the contribution should not be lower than the previous commitments made. Not only in magnitude, but also the sector, coverage, as well as the type of greenhouse gases. This was intended for developed countries so that developed countries can give a more ambitious emission reduction than their previous commitment. The understanding of INDC many times have been confusing with the elements of 2015 Agreement, while both are very much different. Elements of 2015 Agreement are elements that needed to be in the 2015 agreement, while INDC is the derivation of the 2015 Agreement. Not all elements in the 2015 Agreement will be derived to INDC. Some Parties like to have beyond mitigation as INDC, but some other Parties would like to have it 6 Bodanski, Daniel, The Durban Platform Negotiations: Work Stream One, delivered at ADP Special Event December 8th 2012, C2ES. ORG 5

7 For Indonesia, mitigation have to be in the 2015 Agreement and it is a must to derive it to INDC. This refers to the findings of IPCC which say that mitigation actions are needed to be applied as a whole, where all actions from developed Parties are not enough, even if it is implemented aggregately. Even so, only conducting mitigation actions are not enough, since climate change has already happening, adaptation is highly required to be implemented. These actions need supports for implementations, therefore, finance, development and technology transfer, as well as capacity buildings are also needed to be the elements of 2015 agreement. Learning from the experience of Fast Start Finance (FSF) where developed countries must provide financing at the level of US$ 30 billion within , it was concluded that transparency of actions is needed to be a part of the 2015 Agreement. FSF report elaborates all climate change activities that are conducted by developing countries with the financing support from the developed countries. But in the report, many activities reported were conducted before Not only that, but many supported activities reported as those receiving financial support using climate finance, were actually do not relate with climate change at all. The lessons confirming that transparency of actions need to be part of the 2015 Agreement. 3. Possible Mitigation Options for Indonesia As it is stated in the Article 3.4 of the Convention, all climate actions that will be implemented by Parties are expected to support and be in line with the sustainable development. That is why each activity that is related to climate change, should be integrated to the national development plan or national development program. This is to confirm the Decision 1/CP 16 which is stated, Agrees that developing countries Parties will take NAMAs in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity building, aimed at achieving a deviation in emissions relative to business as usual emissions in 2020 There are several mitigation potential for Indonesia on energy side. One of it is the one related to the Sustainable Energy for All initiative. This initiative consists of 3 objectives, there are: ensuring the universal access to the modern energy services, doubling the rate of global energy efficiency and doubling the rate of renewable energy in the global energy mix. 6

8 Figure 4 NAMAs Concept for Emission Reduction Source: Situmeang, Hardiv 7 Several national issues that have to be finished at the national level on energy are: (i) Related to renewable energy - Integration of climate change policy into national energy policy to support renewable energy - The availability of the long-term policy and its implementing rules to support renewable energy development and deployment and institutions to maintain its sustainable role - The availability of the policy instruments to support renewable energy development and deployment, i.e.: long-term financing, feed in tariff, system incentives, etc. - Endowment resources mapping and its site characteristic to confirm the potential role of renewable energy. - Its cost effectiveness and its implementability level through assessments of its associated technology including its challenges and barriers, its associated costs, land arrangement, environmental impact, job creation, poverty reduction, economic and social development, grid access, power purchase agreement, policy instruments, availability financing security package, etc. 7 Situmeang, Hardiv, the presentation was delivered at IESR s workshop on Temuan Ilmiah Perubahan Iklim dan Implikasinya pada Kontribusi Nasional Indonesia di Tingkat Global 11 November

9 - Grid integration (on/off-grid): stable, secure and economic renewable energy off-grid integration; system operations and dynamic stability of renewable energy off-grid integration required integrated communication: sensing and measurements, advance components, advance control and decision support; off-grid integration of variable energy sources (renewable energy) and extension off-grid renewable energy including hybrid set-up; asset management; integration of renewable energy into grid extension planning; technical standards for off-grid connection applications - The availability of research and development, technology dissemination and its required capacity building, non-state actors (private sector) participation, local manufacturers (industry participation), and long-term investment, etc. - Integration of renewable energy deployment as mitigation action into long-term national energy mix to support the sustainable role of renewable energy as key part in preserving long-term demand and supply balanced. - Establishment of renewable energy as part of INDCs and maintaining and conducting its required process to fulfill the UNFCCC INDC frameworks and processes. (ii) Related to energy efficiency - Integration of climate change policy into national energy policy to support energy efficiency. - The availability of the long-term policy and its implementing rules to support energy efficiency and institutions to maintain its sustainable role - The availability of the policy instruments to support energy efficiency, i.e.: long-term financing, system incentives and disincentives, etc. - Matrix confirmation of potential role of energy efficiency as mitigation actions for power, industry and transport sectors, i.e: in demand side (end-use customers: residential, commercial and public customers): building codes, standard and labelling for home appliances, integrated city; transport sector: improve the energy efficiency of transport modes and vehicle technology; etc. - Its cost effectiveness and its implementability level through assessments of its associated technologies including its challenges and barriers, its associated costs, policy instruments, availability financing security package, etc. - The availability of research and development, technology dissemination and its required capacity building, non-state actors (private sector) participation, local manufactures (industry participation), and long-term investment, etc. - Integration of energy efficiency as mitigation actions of power, industry and transport sectors into long-term national mitigation actions of energy sector to support the sustainable role of energy efficiency. 8

10 - Establishment of energy efficiency as part of INDCs and maintaining and conducting its required process to fulfill the UNFCCC INDC frameworks and processes. (iii) Proposed Potential Mitigation Actions - Zero carbon technology and greater role of renewable * Increasing role of geothermal and other renewable power sources, based on national potential availability mapping * Biomass combusted alone, or co-fired based on national potential availability mapping - Low carbon technology, fuel switching and efficiency improvements * Super critical and ultra super critical coal fired power plants; use of more advanced clean coal technologies, e.g., integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) * Revitalization and modernization of the existing thermal power plants to increase efficiency level, operation performances and capacities * Promote cleaner fuel in an effort to shift from fossil fuel with a high emissions factor with a fuel whose carbon emissions factor is low * Improvement of distributed generation system integration including distribution and transmission systems assets management * Incorporating high temperature superconductors into powerful electrical equipment which increase efficiency, system capacity and reliability and safety * End use-side interventions: energy efficiency for residential, commercial and public customers - New Technology * Introduction o new power generation technologies, including Carbon Capture Storage technology 4. Conclusions Several conclusions that can be drawn from the discussion are: 1. The fifth assessment report of IPCC elaborates climate change impacts at the global level, that will also affecting Indonesia. In relation with INDC, there is a need for reviewing the impact of climate change to key economy sectors in Indonesia, especially those related with energy supply, energy demand, transportation and other energy related sector. 2. There are several homework that need to be done by Indonesia in related to Indonesia s contribution at the global level, such as: a. Having coordination among sectors so that emissions that are reduced through INDC for mitigation, so that the reduction can be measureable and be accountable 9

11 b. In relation with Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA), Indonesia should do its homework to produce NAMA, to meet Indonesia s commitment to reduce voluntary 26% of emission by 2020 and up to 41% with international support. c. Priority issues at COP 20 are: - Parties need to agree on the upfront information required for INDC - To produce a draft text on 2015 Agreement. This draft text must be in ready to be ratified format, at the latest 6 (six) months before the Agreement is formalized, in accordance to the UNFCCC rules. d. For Indonesia, mitigation is a must to be derived as INDC. Indonesia also requests that Parties could have a space for other issues to be elements of the 2015 agreement, such as adaptation, financing, capacity building, technology transfer as well as transparency of actions, as INDC. For emission reduction commitment, the most suitable approach for Indonesia is the economy-wide emission reduction targets, which means that the coverage of emission reduction can be taken from many sectors. e. Mitigation potentials that are related with renewable energy and energy efficiency are huge and have the potential to be a part of Indonesia s INDC. However, Indonesia will need to work on its enabling environment, so that renewable energy and energy efficiency will be attractive for investors, thus will accelerate the development of renewable energy and energy efficiency in Indonesia. 10

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