26 th World Gas Conference

Transcription

1 26 th World Gas Conference 1 5 June 215, Paris, France REPORT STUDY GROUP 2.1 UGS DATABASE Ladislav Goryl Vladimír Lorenc Chair of WOC2 SG 2.1 Leader NAFTA a.s.

2 SG 2.1 UGS Database SG 2.1 Aim UGS statistical survey as of 213 /updated 214 Data analysis & summary of general trends Update of the UGS World Map Extension of UGS Glossary UGS App UGS App UGS Interactive map 2

3 Main Contributors SG 2.1 Leader Vladimír Lorenc NAFTA a.s. Programming & visualiza<on Vladimír Lorenc NAFTA a.s. Igor Olejník NAFTA a.s. Main Contributors Joachim Wallbrecht Storengy Marije Wagter GasTerra B.V. Kimberly Denbow AGA Philippe Meynard Storengy Emmanuelle Wicquart EDF Andreas Böhmer EGS Ali Teymouri NGSC Michael Kreuz OMV Gas Storage, GmbH Mária Poláková NAFTA a.s. 3

4 UGS per region...where will the growth come from? North America Europe CIS Others darker shades 215 lighter shades % 4% 35% China, Iran 3% and maybe 25% South America 2% 15% 1% 5% % WGV growth WGV 215 WGV 212 increase WGV 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% increase WGV 11 28% 15 4% 215 Total WGV 393 bcm % % 189 3% 215 Total PWR 6656 mcm/d % USA Russia Ukraine Germany Canada Italy Netherlands France Austria Iran w/o Russia s 38,12 bcm long term strategic reserves which represents gas which might be used under special circumstances with existing infrastructure Hungary Uzbekistan United China Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Czech Spain Slovakia Romania % 119 3% North America Europe Asia L.America & Caribbean CIS Middle-East Asia Pacific % North America Europe Asia L.America & Caribbean CIS Middle-East Asia Pacific 4

5 UGS in Europe...Essential for SoS European storages in a nutshell Inherent part of energy infrastructure 11 bcm 15 at integrating market 5 bcma 1 Excellent source of physical flexibility 2,2 bcm/d 5 High utilization of storages & proved SoS tool >6 years safe & reliable operation % Produc<on vs. demand Supply (bcm) Germany Italy Netherlan France Austria Hungary United Czech Spain Slovakia Romania Poland Turkey Latvia Denmark Belgium Croatia Bulgaria Serbia Portugal Ireland Sweden Harsh winter time LNG covered only 5% Supply share(%) Supply (bcm) WGV 215 increase WGV 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% UGS covered 2% supply increase WGV Supply share(%) bcm Supply share(%) bcm Supply share(%) ENTSOG summr/winter outlook 214/15 5

6 ...but renewables are making their way through the energy system... 6

7 Renewables: Threat or opportunity? Key highlights 27% RES in EU by 23 RES will increase volatility in energy system P2G innovative technology initiative Gas & gas infrastructure may back up energy system Technology for energy storage is there! CH4+H2 mixture storage SNG H2 storage CAES Commercial feasibility is missing so new innovations must come Source: eon, GdF Suez, GerG, RAG, audi, Electrochaea, 7

8 UGS in North America...Momentum in deliverability Key highlights The largest gas market 84 bcma Shale gas revolution & new demand centres Resilient gas infrastructure WGV 149 bcm Heating&Power generation: gas drivers UGS central Further projects aimed at deliverability and part of resilient value added optimization gas system accomodating Storage usage ups&downs U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage (bcm) 2 Storage level Jan 211 Jan 212 Jan 213 Jan 214 Jan 215 Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan 211 to Jan 215 Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February, modified by IGU 215, Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the WGV development in US&Canada >5% growth in salt caverns peak withdrawal rate in operation projects as of 212 in operation as of 215 Peak withdrawal rate % 258 8% % 215 Total PWR 3122 mcm/d % Gas Field Aquifer Salt Cavern Oil Field 8

9 UGS in CIS...Steady growth CIS quick overview Production but also significant consuming region 64 bcma WGV 119 bcm covers gas consumption & export Further demand on deliverability UGSS is further expanded to strengthen reliability & SoS for residential consumers exports to western&eastern markets 12 bcm projects planned till 22 incl. salt caverns 22% growth of rate per triennium Gas Field Aquifer Salt Cavern Oil Field w/o Russia s 38,12 bcm long term strategic reserves which represents gas which might be used under special circumstances with existing infrastructure Unit PWR (mcm/d/bcm) 9

10 UGS in Middle East Focus on Iran Iran s UGS WGV growth per IGU region Gas market 16 bcma, Flexibility driven by R&C sector in large cities liketehran UGS developing rapidly WGV 6bcm in gas fields but lags behind winter gas peaks Strategic plan to develop additional capacity 22 structures screened, 4 selected e.g. Nasr-Abad Kashan Salt Dome, Yurt-e-Shah Aquifer,etc. Iran s UGS darker shades 215 lighter shades % 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% WGV growth % >4% WGV per triennium 1

11 UGS in Asia Talk about China s the greatest challenge China s drivers Gas consumption > 2 bcm to double by 23 Increase of import dependency > 4% Massive urbanization => flexibility WGV 4,8 bcm => 3 bcm by 225 for peak shaving SoS Geology : Depth > 4 m, Low permeability md Planned UGS in operation projects as of 215 prognosis 11

12 UGS New frontiers Latin America: Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay etc. Asia: India, Pakistan 12

13 Thank you for anen<on! Ladislav Goryl NAFTA a.s. Tel.: Vladimír Lorenc NAFTA a.s. Tel.: