GF China Commodities Weekly
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1 GF China Commodities Weekly CHINESE STEEL PRICES TO BE SUPPORTED BY COST CURVE AND INVENTORY GFF Commodities Research Contacts Bonnie Liu Fei Yang Minbo Zhou Ruoyi Zhang Xuxin Song
2 Jan 13 Mar 13 May 13 Jul 13 Sep 13 Nov 13 Jan 14 Mar 14 May 14 Jul 14 Sep 14 Nov 14 Jan 15 Mar 15 May 15 Jul 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Cash Cost of Raw Material Rmb/t Steel Mills Margin Rmb/t GF China Commodities Weekly Steel Mills Margin at Breakeven Level: This may lead to slower ramp-up of production restart in China in the 2H16 The major motivation for increasing steel production in China is profit margin. In April the gross margin for steel mills in China reached as high as 1,000RMB/t (US$149/t). As a result of this better margin, we have seen a quick restart of steel production in China since the end of March 2016, and this has helped the Chinese steel production to break a record high in May Since 2015 (according to our estimation) a total of 110mtpa of the steel production capacity in China has been closed out. But the recent price recovery in steel in China has encouraged roughly 55mtpa capacity to restart with another 15mtpa capacity to be back on stream in the 2H16. As the cash flow is running very tight at Chinese steel mills at the moment, the pace of the restart in production has been relatively slow. According to our calculation of raw material in spots market, the raw material cost of crude steel in China is around 1,600RMB/t (US$240/t) excluding the cost of labour, finance and depreciation. Therefore, the margin for rebar and the hot rolling coil (HRC) gross margins are only at roughly 80RMB/t (US$12/t) and 200RMB/t (US$30/t) respectively. The gross margin of steel mills in China has shrunk a lot over the past months. If we look at the total production cost, some of these mill s margin is already running into negative. There will also be production cuts related with environment control in the Hebei province over the months of July to October Therefore, we believe the production ramp-up for steel mills in China will be relatively small in the 2H16 period compared with the 1H16. Fig 1 Fall Of Chinese Steel Mill Profit in June The Profit of China steel Mills Decined In June Steel Mills Margin Cash Cost of Raw Material Source: SHFE, NBS, GFF Research, July 2016
3 Million Tons % Production Control in Tangshan Impact: June Crude Steel Production Eased Off from Record High in May According to statistics, the amounts of crude steel and the steel products production are 70.5m tonnes and 99.46m tonnes in May 2016, up by 1.8% YoY and 2.1% YoY respectively. From January to May 2016, Chinese crude steel and steel products production are 320m and 450m tonnes, which are -1.4% YoY and 1% YoY. Impacted by the production control in Tangshan, the average daily production of crude steel in China dropped in June. CISA estimated the daily production of crude steel in early June and mid-june was 2.34m tonnes and 2.20m tonnes, annualized at 854m tonnes and 803m tonnes respectively. Based on CISA estimation, we calculate the production of crude steel from China in June was about 68.9m tonnes, down by 2.3% YoY but virtually flat from May The average daily production of crude steel in June was around million tons annualized at 837m tonnes. For the whole year of 2016, we estimate the production will be around 800m tonnes, which is approximately the same as the production in Fig 2 Chinese Production of Crude Steel Eases Off in June After the Record High in May 7500 Chinese Production Of Crude Steel Droped In June MoM Crude Steel Prod-Annualised Crude Steel YoY Source: CISA, NBS, GFF Research, July 2016 The Inventory Remained Steady in June Until June 24 th, the total steel inventory at key steel mills and social warehouses was 23.3m tonnes, which is approximately the same as at the end of May. The absolute amount of inventory in June this year was (approximately) the lowest level for the past five years. It has dropped by 19% YoY and was only 11% higher than the beginning of this year.
4 '000 Tons Looking at the structure of steel inventory in China, social warehouse inventory has decreased, whereas key steel mill inventory has risen substantially since April. June social warehouse inventory fell by 5.3% MoM and 30% drop YoY to 8.9m tonnes. Key steel mill inventory rose by 5.1% MoM to million tonnes. The drop of social warehouse inventory is led by the long products such as rebar. The long product inventory fell by 9% MoM, while the flat products stocks remain unchanged in June. We are in off-peak season for demand at the moment together with heavy rain across the region in China, and with the accompanying tight cash flow problems traders are not in a rush to purchase any material at present. As a result, we have seen a gradual build-up of inventory at steel mill warehouses since April Fig 3 Total Steel Inventory in China Total Steel Inventory in China J A N FEB M A R A P R M A Y J U N J U L A U G SEP O C T NOV D E C Source: CISA, NBS, GFF Research, July 2016
5 Jan 15 Mar 15 May 15 Jul 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 Jan 15 Mar 15 May 15 Jul 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 '000 Tons '000 Tons Fig4 Steel Social Warehouses Inventory Remains At Lowest Point In June 14,000 Social Warehouses Inventory 19,000 Inventory of Key Steel Mills 17,000 12,000 15,000 10,000 13,000 8,000 11,000 Source: CISA, NBS, GFF Research, July 2016 The Demand for Steel Starts To Ease Off in June Infrastructure and real estates are two major markets for steel demand in China. According to statistics, FAI on infrastructure investment increased by 20% YoY in May, whereas the aggregate growth for the first 5 months is approximately the same as the first 4 months. In the real estate sector, the aggregate growth of housing sales and the floor space new starts for the first 5 months are both slower than the first 4 months rate of growth. The total housing sales and floor space new starts from January to May 2016 were up by 33.2% YoY and 18.3% YoY respectively, which is lower than the number from January to April by 3.3% and 3.1% accordingly. Moving into the rainy season over the summer, we will start to hear the demand weakening across China, especially from the construction market which is constrained by the weather. This will lead to a slowdown in demand over the next couple of months across the region. The property market usually leads steel demand by approximately 6 to 9 months. In 1Q16, we have seen a big rise in housing sales in China, and therefore we expect the big rise in steel demand from the property market to kick-in from September onwards. The relatively low level of steel inventory in China, together with the projected supply disruptions over the period of July to September, should see steel prices maintained in 2H16.
6 Downstream Industry Data May 2016 April 2016 Total Number From Jan To May YoY MoM Jan To May YoY Fixed-Asset Investment (Billion RMB) Infrastructure Investment (Billion RMB) FAI in Real Estate (Billion RMB) Floor Space New Starts (Million Square Meters) Floor Space Under Construction (Million Square Meters) Floor Space Sales (Million Square Meters) Automobile Production (Million Vehicles) Automobile Sales (Million Vehicles) Air Conditioner Production (Million) Washing Machine Production (Million) Refrigerator Production (Million) Excavator Sales (Thousand) Excavator Production (Thousand) % 17.8% 9.6% % 21.6% 19.8% % 19.3% 7.0% % 6.3% 18.3% % 4.9% 5.6% % 2.0% 33.2% % -5.1% 5.8% % -1.7% 7.0% % -9.5% -6.5% % -3.6% 6.3% % -2.1% -4.1% % 7.2% -2.7% % -23.4% 7.3% Summary and My Steel Conference Take Away Based on the estimation of CISA, we calculate Chinese crude steel production in June will drop by 2.3% YoY to 68.88m tonnes. In July, Tangshan, Hebei province is expected to stop production for one week due to environment control. This will add less pressure on supply. Meanwhile, steel inventory in China stays at a relatively comfortable level compared with historical data. Steel mill margin also remains poor at the moment. All of these factors will prevent the steel price in China from dropping too much from the recent recovery.
7 On June 24 th, 2016, the Chinese Iron and Steel International Derivatives Conference was held in Shanghai. Thousands of delegates joined the conference including exchanges, steel mills, physical traders, and financial players. At the conference, most of the delegates shared the opinion that steel prices will be well supported at recent levels. Although manufacturing activities provide little help for GDP growth at the moment compared with historical period, and the consumption of steel on every unit of GDP demolished, the steel price in China is still strongly correlated with the investment on infrastructure and property sector. The steel factories claim that they are more willing to have the steel price range trading rather than the huge volatility experienced back in April and May this year. Steel mills see the price of 2100RMB/t (US$313/t) to be well supported from the cost production perspective. With the promotion of reformation of supply and demand from Beijing, the steel factories in China should be more cautious to restart their spare production capacity aggressively in the 2H16. We hear some SOE background builders claim that when steel price at RMB /t (US$298-US$313/t) levels, the downstream industries are more willing to make the purchase.
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