International Workshop on Research on Impacts of Tsunamis and Natural Disasters May 2005, Brussels

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1 International Workshop on Research on Impacts of Tsunamis and Natural Disasters May 2005, Brussels Report on Main Recommendations 1.0 Introduction Purpose Issues raised Research themes: Health R&D needs on epidemiology, surveillance and data collection R&D needs on health management and best practices R&D needs on policies Research themes : Non-Health Data and database Tools and methods Emergency and post-emergency response effectiveness Education and training Capacity / Livelihood Governance (all dimensions, formal and informal institutions) Integrated coastal management Ecosystems and disasters Economic issues Disaster Risk Management and Early Warning Systems (EWS) (multihazard)

2 1.0 Introduction On December , an earthquake with a moment magnitude of 9.3 occurred along Northern Sumatra and the Nicobar and Andaman Islands that resulted in the catastrophic tsunami that affected 12 countries. The human impact of the earthquake and tsunami was enormous with in total more than people killed and over affected. Many people lost their homes and had to find shelter with family, friends or in temporary settlements such as tent camps or mosques. The impact of the tsunami was exceptionally large on population and infrastructure. Many houses, roads, electricity lines, etc. were destroyed. Many services such as health care and education were discontinued due to loss of staff, material and buildings. Table 1: Human impact of the earthquake and tsunami: December Country Killed Missing Affected Homeless Indonesia Sri Lanka India Thailand Somalia Maldives Malaysia Myanmar Tanzania 10 Seychelles Bangladesh 2 Kenya 1 Total Source: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. Emergency Database [database online]. URL: Besides these immediate effects of the earthquake and tsunami, more indirect effects were anticipated by international agencies and NGO's. Probably, he largest of these was the expectation of communicable disease outbreaks. In this context the Council of the EU proposed an action plan stressing the need for immediate initiatives and the need to reflect on the capacity to react to catastrophes. As part of this plan the "International Workshop on Research on Impacts of Tsunamis and Natural Disasters" was held in Brussels on 25 and 26 May Purpose The purpose of the workshop was (1) to assess the state-of-the art of ongoing medium term research; (2) to assess the impact of tsunamis compared to other natural disasters on human health, land use (agriculture, food, coastal zones, water and ecosystems) and their socio-economic implications, both globally and for South Asia, and (3) to identify gaps in our knowledge base as well as priorities for mediumterm and long-term research. The results of this workshop will help the Commission in adjusting its research agenda to the research needs arising from the Tsunami experience. 2

3 3.0 Issues raised a) What are the most negative influences of tsunamis and natural disasters on human health, the environment, and land-use? b) What are the social and economic impacts of tsunamis, and how do they compare to those of other natural disasters? c) Which type of research is needed to deal with the impacts of natural disasters after the events, and what research is essential on preparedness before the events? d) Which research is needed for tsunami/natural disaster relief and how can research add to minimizing impacts? e) What research has been done on the costs and benefits of the various preventive measures (e.g. early warning systems) and mitigation measures (e.g. dams, trees) for tsunamis and other natural disasters? f) Can research activities promote standardized data gathering for tsunami/disaster follow-up? g) How can international scientific co-operation contribute to state of the art research? h) Can research help institutional strengthening and how can we ensure that our research has societal impact? 4.0 Research themes: Health 4.1 R&D needs on epidemiology, surveillance and data collection Short and long term health impact of tsunamis and natural disasters Standardized definitions/codings of deaths, injuries and disabilities ; compilation of available data for meta analyses Risk factor analysis for deaths and injuries (case control epidemiology) Effectiveness of emergency health interventions (quality of response) Evidence-based interventions (effectiveness of response) 4.2 R&D needs on health management and best practices Best practices in health preparedness and management Management and technical guidelines based on evidence including opportunistic infections, rare disease outbreaks, dead body management (forensic guidelines, public communications) Sentinel disease surveillance and early warning of epidemics, acute malnutrition 4.3 R&D needs on policies The principal focus should be on governance structures needed for future disaster planning, response and recovery. This area should consider the following: Impact of disasters on policy making and impacts of political reactions on health Role of international and national media in disasters Improving resilience in low-resource countries Natural disasters and current complex emergencies Focus should also be placed on evaluating effectiveness of public health policies in reducing vulnerabilities to disasters and reducing impacts. 3

4 This area should consider the following: Physical vulnerability of structures Guidelines on effective interventions Pre- and post-critical stress management programmes 4

5 5.0 Research themes : Non-Health 5.1 Data and database Research should be undertaken on improving quality, accuracy and coverage of disaster data. Mechanisms to share and exchange data at national and regional levels should be explored. 5.2 Tools and methods Further development, refinement, integration and comparative analysis of tools to deal with disasters is needed (with input of stakeholders in their design) specifically: Cost-benefit / cost-effectiveness analysis Risk assessment/ Risk valuation Multi-criteria analysis (decision support) Vulnerability mapping/risk mapping (designed for policy makers and emergency managers) Indicators of vulnerability and adaptive/coping capacity Environmental impacts of disasters 5.3 Emergency and post-emergency response effectiveness The development and application of tools is required to evaluate the effectiveness of response processes and outcomes. These can be used to compare the effectiveness of the response to the tsunami by governments and non-governmental organisations with responses to other natural disasters. The impact of the time horizon of emergency responses and the impact on reconstruction and redevelopment should also be assessed. 5.4 Education and training Education should be examined and best practices defined using a comparative approach, to increase risk awareness, preparation and mitigation, and to facilitate the transfer of methods and programmes. Knowledge on natural and social sciences should be updated, and mechanisms researched for disseminating knowledge to all stakeholders. Disaster science academic programmes should be promoted in university curricula. 5.5 Capacity / Livelihood Quality of life indicators should be developed (multi-dimensional, adaptive and involving local communities), with comparison and dynamic analysis of pre- and postdisaster data. Research is also needed on social capital and collective action in disaster situations; vulnerability; coping capacity; and resilience of communities to natural disasters especially in a multi-hazard context. 5.6 Governance (all dimensions, formal and informal institutions) Assessment is needed of governance aspects of disaster management including: prevention and preparedness, hazard mitigation, emergency relief, rehabilitation, and reconstruction. Key themes for research might include: Property rights and land-use issues (including building codes), dynamics between conflicts and natural disasters; sovereignty and disaster aid, disaster relief, disaster risk and development (including 5

6 linkages with climate policy, the role of new actors (media, army etc), international linkages and disasters and the governance of adaptation within organisations. 5.7 Integrated coastal management To prevent and mitigate disaster impacts, research should be conducted as follows on issues related to coastal planning and development: Incorporating multi-stakeholders perspectives on coastal development and environment Understanding the trade-offs and balance between coastal development, livelihood and environmental issues (including climate change) Assessing sustainable land use options (pre- and post-analysis) 5.8 Ecosystems and disasters The following are required: Resilience management of natural barriers Assessment and management of bio-invasion post disaster Impacts of ecosystems in disaster situations (mechanical and other values) Assessment of the economic benefits of ecosystems Improve ecosystem management post disaster Assessing fisheries and aquaculture and related health and livelihood impacts 5.9 Economic issues There is a need for more a more comprehensive assessment of the relationship between risk, hazard and vulnerability as an indicator of the need for successful intervention. This will include the analysis of historical data on hazards, as well as economic and hydrometeorological models. It will also include studies on different aspects of vulnerability, such as demographic, socioeconomic, geographic, and infrastructure. Better understanding of potential medium- and longer-term impacts of disasters on health, environment, development and poverty and other socio-economic factors is needed. Further research is also required on how the causes of vulnerability are linked to poverty and how the impacts of disasters may hinder development. Much data exists on the direct impacts of disasters on life, property and environment, but less is known about the follow-on effects due to the immediate shock, which can be large and even exceed the direct shock if coping capacity is low. Research in this area: Transmission channels from the disaster impact to longer-term effects Vulnerabilities at different levels and ways to assess them Impacts of globalisation and macro-economic policy on local vulnerability and coping capacity to disaster risk Methodologies should comprise empirical and model-based analysis. Development of integrated risk information systems is required for informing about potential direct and follow-on development and poverty impacts of future disasters. 6

7 The main issues are estimating risks in a context with an insufficient data basis, Involving potential users early on in the design of such a system, and communicating risks and uncertainties Designing and studying financial disaster risk management measures: Financial disaster risk management on micro and macro levels for developing countries Analysis of instruments such as micro-insurance, weather derivatives, reserve funds and catastrophe bonds. Improving the linkages with mitigation and preparedness measures (insurance premium is reduced if risk is reduced by mitigation measures taken) Examining the possibility for donor intervention by setting up financial back-up systems, subsidising premiums or providing technical assistance. Developing user-friendly tools and models that can be used for studying these issues Disaster Risk Management and Early Warning Systems (EWS) (multi-hazard) Early Warning Systems are a component of disaster preparedness. The international community has been talking about the need for effective early warning systems for well over two decades. EWS R&D needs are as follows: Use historical databases of disasters and weather situations including forecasts in order to: Assess the value of making operational coupled hydro-meteorological forecast for floods and storms Generate realistic scenarios on which to base exercises and rehearsals for major incidents, involving civil protection, health and other authorities Assess the effectiveness of existing early warning systems at regional, national, provincial and local levels, including the communication systems in place to reach risk groups and the adaptation of forecasting to local circumstances. Identify the infrastructure and institutional arrangement needed to achieve the GEO goals for health management of major regional disasters (tsunamis, floods, storm surges, tropical cyclones). Research into how at-risk communities have been and could be involved in identifying disaster risks and causes, as well as planning and implementing EWS and disaster mitigation and preventative measures. Assess whether small-scale systems have advantages over centralized systems, which may require considerable resources and could be complex to manage. Research is needed to ensure that appropriate policies are in place at a local level, e.g. education on disasters, communication channels to alert communities, and contingency plans. Research into people s survival mechanisms, resilience and coping capacities will help to guide the design of an EWS and to reduce vulnerability. 7

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