Policy Impacts of Vehicle Emissions on Human Health in the Developing World

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1 Policy Impacts of Vehicle Emissions on Human Health in the Developing World Professor Larry W. Ishmael Economics and Public Policy Northwest University Seattle, Washington, USA

2 Breath Deeply

3 São Paulo Team BR Inspeccões SA de CV Prefeitura de São Paulo Suasor Consulting Group (my company) Universidade de São Paulo Environmentality Ltda.

4 Dr. Paulo H. N. Saldiva, MD, PhD Professor of Pathology at USP Medical School Researcher at Harvard School of Public Health Administrater at Unversity of Birmingham School of Pathology and Pharmacology Researcher at Experimental Laboratory of Atmospheric Pollution of the University of Sao Paulo Authored or Co-Authored more than 420 peer reviewed articles Cited in more than 3,500 peer reviewed articles

5 Main Sources of Pollutants POLLUTANTS PRIMARY SOURCES EFFECTS ON HEALTH CO (carbon monoxide) SO2 (sulfur dioxide) O3 (ozone) PM (particulate matter) HC (hydrocarbon) ALDEHYDE (chemical compound which can be converted into acid and alcohol) NO2 (Nitrogen Dioxide) Vehicles Industry and Diesel Vehicles Formed by the reaction of sunlight on air containing hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides that react to form ozone, primarily from vehicles Vehicles powered by Diesel, industry, worn tires and brakes of vehicles in general. Incomplete burning and evaporation of fuels (alcohol, gasoline and diesel) and other combustible products Vehicles Combustion process in general; vehicles * Impairs the oxygen-carrying capacity of the blood, putting a strain on tissues with high oxygen demand, such as the heart and the brain, and reduces oxygen in the air; * causes dizziness and vertigo; * causes alterations to the central nervous system; * can be fatal in high doses in closed environments; * heart illnesses, and people with chronic angina, are considered the group most susceptible to effects of exposure to CO. * causes inflammation of the mucus membrane, cold, respiratory illness (characterized by coughing, sneezing, sore throat, etc.); inflammation of the mucous membrane and irreversible damage to the lungs; * high doses can be fatal; * also affects plants and animal species most susceptible as well as contributes to the destruction of the environment like acidifcation of the soil and bodies of water. * causes premature aging; * reduces resistance to infection; * causes irritation in the eyes, nose and throat as well a s causing respiratory discomfort. * aggravates allergic reactions like asthma and bronchitis; * can be a carcinogen; * the largest particles become lodged in the nose and mouth, causing irritation and aiding in the proliferation of flu related illnesses; * the finest powder(inhaled particles) get in the lungs causing respiratory illnesses in the heart and lungs. * responsible for an increase in lung cancer; * causes irritation of the eye, skin and respiratory system. * Causes irritation of the eye, nose and throat; * emitted by gasoline and diesel engines can cause cancer. * can cause respiratory discomfort, reduces the ability to fight disease and alters cellular composition.

6 São Paulo Clean City Initiative Study by University of São Paulo School of Medicine 10% of seniors affected 7% of infants affected 10-15% of children (under 18) affected 12% higher on multiple days of temperature inversion days Citizens live 1 1/2 years shorter than in cleaner cities in Brazil Vehicles account for most bad emissions 98% of carbon monoxide emissions 93% of hydrocarbon emissions 96% of nitrous oxide emissions 35% sulfur dioxide emissions 40% of particulate matter

7 São Paulo Municipality The World s Third Largest City The Southern Hemisphere s Largest City Greater Metropolitan Population of 23 MM (greater than the population of Florida) Vehicle Fleet of Approximately 8.5 MM Fleet is comprised of: Gasoline (with 25% of each liter containing ethanol) Diesel (heavy vehicles) Multi-fuel vehicles

8 São Paulo Clean Air Project From the most polluted city in the Southern Hemisphere To one that is cleaner than most American cities

9 Cape Town Municipality The South Africa s Third Largest City The 12 th Largest City in the Southern Hemisphere Greater Metropolitan Population of 3.7 MM Vehicle Fleet of Approximately 1.7 MM Fleet is comprised of: Gasoline/Petrol (light vehicles) Diesel (light and heavy duty vehicles and buses) Electric and Hybrid vehicles

10 Cape Town s Brown Haze Graphics Courtesy of the City of Cape Town

11 Creation of Brown Haze Graphics Courtesy of the US EPA

12 Partners in Project Worship Mugido Research Assistant Rodney Gullberg Statistician Ian Guldenhuys Head of Specialized Environmental Health, Health Department, City of Cape Town Hospitals Tygerberg Groote Schuur Karl Bremer Victoria

13 Air Quality Management Plan AQMP vision: TO BE THE CITY WITH THE CLEANEST AIR IN AFRICA AQMP mission: TO REDUCE THE HEALTH EFFECTS OF POOR AIR QUALITY ON THE CITIZENS OF CAPE TOWN ESPECIALLY DURING BROWN HAZE EPISODES AQMP objectives: To formulate an air quality management system for the City of Cape Town To specify ambient air quality standards and targets for Cape Town To monitor priority pollutants which cause brown haze and affect human health To improve air quality in informal areas To enforce current and future legislation for air quality management To compile a comprehensive emissions inventory database for the City of Cape Town To control vehicle emissions in the City To consider air quality in land use and transport planning

14 Science vs. Policy Scientists follow the scientific method, where a theory is proposed and tested, and then results published, allowing review, replication, and validation by their scientific peers. To put this in policy terminology, it is similar to the rational comprehensive method, building incrementally over many years toward a reasonable consensus within the scientific network. Policy makers embrace less linear approaches where problems, policies, and politics come together on focusing events and policy windows, and make decisions based on what will work and how they can persuade their peers. recommendation in academic work and similar feelings from scientists for the political process. Source: Lee (1996)

15 Data Compact Model Source: (Engel-Cox and Hoff 2005)

16 Temperature Inversion Graphics Courtesy of the US EPA

17 Temperature Inversions in Somerset West

18 Cape Town Air Quality Monitoring Stations Source: City of Cape Town Health Department

19 Cape Town Air Quality Monitoring Stations City of Cape Town Health Department

20 Quantifiable and Suspected Health Effects Source: Adapted from U.S. EPA Final Report to Congress on Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act, 1990 to 2010.

21 Quantifiable and Suspected Health Effects

22 Table of Statistical Data (showing dependent variable by cohort and predictors)

23 Predicted number of events Results of PM10 Over 5 Year Period Lowess smoother pm10 bandwidth =.8 Source: Own Research using Stata Statistical Software Release 7.0

24 Predicted number of events Results of NO2 Over 5 Year Period Lowess smoother no2 bandwidth =.8 Source: Own Research using Stata Statistical Software Release 7.0

25 Frequency Cost Per Day of Children 5 and Under 600 Distribution of Cost Per Day For Ages 5 and Under Estimated for All Hospitals Cost Per Day Own Research

26 Frequency Cost Per Day of Adults 65 and Over Distribution of Cost Per Day for Ages 65 and Older Estimated for All Hospitals Cost Per Day Own Research

27 Frequency Cost Per Day of Adults 65 and Over Distribution of Cost Per Day for Ages 65 and Older Estimated for All Hospitals Cost Per Day Own Research

28 Total Costs by Cohort Group Children 5 and Under ZAR 77,144,517 Adults 65 and over ZAR 4,127,766,264 Total Health Cost ZAR 4,204,910,781 Own Research

29 Comparing Cape Town to São Paulo Population Cape Town 3.74 MM São Paulo 20.2 MM Land Area Cape Town 2,455 square kilometers São Paulo 3,175 square kilometers Vehicle Park Cape Town 1,698,210 vehicles São Paulo 8,530,277 vehicles Global Fuel Standards South Africa Euro II Brazil Euro V Source: NAACAM October 2011

30 Implementation Plan Fleet Characterization Using 2 x RSD Build 4 x Four Lane Permanent Stations Implement Clean Screen Program Prescreen fleet for 30% Sure Pass vehicles Implement Gross Emitter Program Identify 15-20% Gross Emitter vehicles

31 Vehicle Inspection Stations in São Paulo

32 São Paulo Clean Air Project The World s Second Largest City The Southern Hemisphere s Largest City Greater Metropolitan Population of 23 m (greater than the population of Florida) Vehicle Fleet of Approximately 8.5 m Fleet is comprised of: Gasoline (light vehicles) Diesel (medium and heavy duty vehicles Multi-fuel vehicles (light vehicles and buses)

33 Cape Town Municipality The South Africa s Third Largest City The 12 th Largest City in the Southern Hemisphere Greater Metropolitan Population of 3.7 MM Vehicle Fleet of Approximately 1.74 MM Fleet is comprised of: Gasoline (light vehicles) Diesel (light, medium, buses, and heavy vehicles) Sasol Electric

34 Virginia Total Screen Program Collects roughly 1 million on-road exhaust measurements (about 300,000 unique vehicles) in the Northern Virginia I/M area with one RSD4000 four days per week. Collects, manages and processes data, and issues about 15 official VDEQ notices each month, requiring those that have registered the two highest readings within a 120-day period to be reinspected at an I/M station. Although the volume is conservative at this stage, the Virginia program makes full use of the RSD data by applying all three authorized RSD applications (high emitter testing, clean screening and fleet characterization). In addition to issuing high emitters notices, the same number of clean screen notices is issued to cars registering the two lowest clean readings. Finally, data is collected in three non- -inspected control fleet as a USEPA- concurrent use. Source: US EPA

35 Lessons Learned Public Policy is only sustainable when it is something individuals can relate to: Climate Change is too abstract for the developing world In a populist democracy where a large percentage of the populace is poor their needs are more basicl Family is the default infrastructure in failed markets Particulate Matter is King More easily proven to effect human health More visible to the naked eye Science and Politics are different animals

36 Ambient Air Quality Monitor AeroQual AQM60 in Pretoria School Yard

37 Light Duty Remote Sensing Envirotest Remote Sensing Equipment

38 Heavy Duty Remote Sensing Envirotest Remote Sensing Equipment Envirotest Remote Sensing Equipment

39 Cape Town s Brown Haze Can Be Eliminated with Good Policy