Driving Environmental Policy. Professor Larry W. Ishmael Economics and Public Policy Northwest University Seattle, Washington, USA

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1 Driving Environmental Policy Professor Larry W. Ishmael Economics and Public Policy Northwest University Seattle, Washington, USA

2 São Paulo Municipality The World s Second Largest City The Southern Hemisphere s Largest City Greater Metropolitan Population of 23 MM (greater than the population of Florida) Vehicle Fleet of Approximately 6.5 MM Fleet is comprised of: Gasoline (with 25% of each liter containing ethanol) Diesel (heavy vehicles) Multi-fuel vehicles

3 Breath Deeply

4 Temperature Inversion

5 Health Effects of Carbon Pollution Unchecked carbon pollution leads to long-lasting changes in our climate, such as: Rising global temperatures Rising sea level Changes in weather and precipitation patterns Changes in ecosystems, habitats and species diversity These changes threaten America's health and welfare for current and future generations. Public health risks include: More heat waves and drought Worsening smog (also called ground-level ozone pollution) Increasing the intensity of extreme events, like hurricanes, extreme precipitation and flooding Increasing the range of ticks and mosquitoes, which can spread disease such as Lyme disease and West Nile virus

6 Creation of Brown Haze

7 Temperature Inversions

8 Negotiating w/ Political Parties

9 Lobbying with Ministry of Justice

10 Lobbying with Ministry of Environment

11 São Paulo Clean City Initiative Scope Dollar Investment $160 million Creating 1,200 new union jobs Uses the latest technology Revenues Average inspection rate is: $ 55 USD 10 year revenue projection is $ 1.7 billion 10 year concession renewable for 10 more

12 Methane Menace

13 Belching Bovines & Methane

14 Main Sources of Pollutants

15 São Paulo Clean City Initiative Study by USP School of Medicine 10% of seniors affected 7% of infants affected 10-15% of children (under 18) affected 12% higher on multiple days of temperature inversion days Citizens live 1 1/2 years shorter than in cleaner cities in Brazil Vehicles account for most bad emissions 98% of carbon monoxide emissions 93% of hydrocarbon emissions 96% of nitrous oxide emissions 35% sulfur dioxide emissions 40% of particulate matter

16 São Paulo Clean City Initiative Objectives Reduce vehicle emissions by 30-40% Fleet characterization Clean Screen Program Fixed station programs Mobile station programs for large fleets Improve Public Health Save 850 lives per year Reduce CV emergency ward visits by 40%

17 Remote Sensing Reduces Pollution

18 Implementation Plan Fleet Characterization Using RSD Build 6 Permanent Stations Each light vehicle station to have 6 lanes Each heavy vehicle station to have 8 lanes Implement Clean Screen Program Prescreen fleet for 30% Sure Pass vehicles Identify 15-20% Gross Emitter vehicles Open 12 Mobile Stations Do large corporate/government fleets insitu Go to major shopping malls to be more convenient Open 35 Fixed Stations

19 Clean Screen Program

20 How Fixed Stations Work

21 Vehicle Inspection Stations in São Paulo

22 Realizing the Project November 5, 2007

23 São Paulo Clean Screen Project

24 São Paulo Clean Air Project From the most polluted city in the Southern Hemisphere To one that is cleaner than most American cities

25 Suasor Consulting Group Additional Clean Air Projects Mexico City Clean Air Program São Paulo, Brazil Clean Air Initiative Santiago, Chile Clean City Project San Luis Clean Air Program

26 Air Quality Monitoring

27 Heavy Duty Vehicle / Diesel Fleet Monitoring & Testing

28 Light Duty Remote Sensing

29 Lessons Learned Public Policy is only sustainable when it is something individuals can relate to: Climate Change is too abstract for the developing world In a populist democracy where a large percentage of the populace is poor their needs are more basicl Family is the default infrastructure in failed markets Particulate Matter is King More easily proven to effect human health More visible to the naked eye Science and Politics are different animals

30 Data Compact Model

31 Science and politics serve different purposes. Politics aims at the responsible use of power; in a democracy, responsible means accountable, eventually to voters. Science aims at finding truths results that withstand the scrutiny of one s fellow scientists.

32 Main Sources of Pollutants