European information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation responses

Transcription

1 European information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation responses EUROSAI WGEA Seminar: Auditing Climate Change EEA, 23rd March 2010 Dr. Stéphane Isoard Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation 1

2 Auditing climate change adaptation Audits have the potential of providing up-to-date, detailed, and regular information on adaptation measures at national, regional and local levels. (Pillar I of the AWP) The cross-cutting, inter-disciplinary and transboundary nature of climate change adaptation has to be definitively taken into account. Climate change affects all economic sectors, regions and communities in Europe. There is no such thing as one way to approach and implement adaptation measures. There is rather a series of indicative success factors and barriers to adaptation. Performance / Effectiveness indicators for adaptation are not possible. Focus rather on process-based indicators. 2

3 Auditing climate change adaptation Audits could focus on: Strengthening the knowledge base and analysing examples of good practices, costs and mal-adaptation (Pillar I of the AWP) Reviewing mainstreaming of adaptation (Pillar II of the AWP) in relation with key EU policies. Review adaptation measures that are embedded in related policies and support developing guidance Consider grey, green and soft adaptation measures combined with key vulnerable sectors, regions and communities Reviewing governance structures, socio-economic, institutional and natural capacities as they are key elements of the adaptive capacity and ability to manage risks. Updating indicative series of success factors and barriers to adaptation and highlight key uncertainties Fostering information exchange at all levels 3

4 Agenda 1. Science of climate 2. COP15 - Copenhagen Accord 3. Regional climate change impacts 4. Adaptation responses and options 4

5 IPCC 2007 (Nobel Peace Price) Climate change is a reality (unequivocal) caused by humain activities (more than 90% sure) 5 Science of climate

6 Above +2ºC C impacts will be large Figure 3: Key impacts as a function of increasing global average temperature change 1 EU +2 C target Climate change impacts the largest in developing countries with least adaptative capacity. Equity issue in relation to the historical and current common but differentiated responsability Science of climate 1Above levels. To express the change relative to the period , IPCC WG II adds 0.5 degrees C 6

7 Substantial global GHG emission reduction is needed as well as adaptation EU +2ºC target 7 Science of climate (full uncertainty range for temperature increase is ºC)

8 Main scientific developments (IARU Copenhagen scientific conference March 2009) Many key climate indicators are already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which contemporary society and economy have developed and thrived. There is a significant risk that many of the trends will accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts. Societies and ecosystems are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change, with poor nations and communities, ecosystem services and biodiversity particularly at risk. Temperature rises above 2 C will be difficult for contemporary societies to cope with, and are likely to cause major societal and environmental disruptions through the rest of the century and beyond. An effective, well-funded adaptation safety net is required for those people least capable of coping with climate change impacts. 8 Science of climate

9 Global climate change scientific insights (IPCC 2007) confirmed/enhanced in 2009 (IARU, UNEP, PIK, WWF) 9 Science of climate

10 COP15 outcomes (Copenhagen Accord) objective of a maximum global average temperature rise of 2 C (review in 2015 to consider a possible goal of 1.5 C using new scientific insights) listing economy-wide emission reduction targets for developed countries and mitigation action by developing countries by 31 January 2010 need for enhanced action on adaptation to reduce vulnerability and building resilience in developing countries (least developed countries, small island developing states and Africa) developed countries' commitments for new and additional funding for both adaptation and mitigation in developing countries, including a Fast Start programme (US$ 30 billion) for and long-term finance (US$ 100 billion annually by 2020) importance of establishing robust monitoring, reporting and verification setting up mechanisms for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and other land use changes need to step up action on development and transfer of technology Challenge: turn this political agreement into an effective and legally binding agreement by COP16 in Mexico (29 November-10 December 2010) 10 COP15 - Copenhagen Accord Source: UNFCCC, 2009

11 Emission reduction targets proposed and long-term temperature increase EU proposal: global greenhouse gas emissions should peak by 2020 at the latest and be reduced by at least 50% as compared with 1990 levels by 2050 and continue to decline thereafter (based on IPCC and later science) At and after COP15 (various analyses, see below for sources): Emission reductions proposed are projected to lead to about C above pre-industrial (by 2100) Concentrations by 2100 could be about ppm CO2 equiv Emission reduction actions are needed at the high end of current proposals and stretch beyond them, to have a reasonable chance of containing warming to below 2 C above preindustrial Need to re-assess based on actual country submissions to UNFCCC by 31 Jan 2010 Sources: UNEP, Grantham research institue (UK), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) (DE), Ecofys (NL), Climate Analytics (DE), Sustainability Institute (USA), European Climate Foundation (NL), Project Catalyst (NL) (Dec 2009) 11 COP15 - Copenhagen Accord

12 Recent relevant EEA reports (2008/2009) 12 EEA:

13 EEA/JRC/WHO report - Mapping past and projected impacts Indicators Atmosphere and climate Cryosphere (glaciers, snow and ice) Marine biodiversity and ecosystems Water quantity Freshwater quality and biodiversity Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity Soil Agriculture and forestry Human health Adaptation to climate change Economic consequences of climate change (Update of 2004 edition) 13 Regional climate change impacts

14 Vulnerable regions and sectors Main biogeographic regions of Europe (EEA member countries) Most vulnerable areas Southern Europe Mountain areas Coastal zones River floodplains Arctic region 14 Regional climate change impacts

15 Global and European temperature Global temperature (2007) European temperature (2007) : C (above average) : C (above average) past Modelled change in annual mean temperature over Europe between and Observed global and European annual average temperature deviations Global projection ( to ) : C Europe ( to ) : C future 15 Climate change impacts

16 Temperature extremes in Europe Extremes of cold became less frequent and warm extremes more frequent Number of hot days almost tripled between 1880 and 2005 past Observed changes in duration of warm spells in summer in the period Projected changes in number of tropical nights between periods and Increase in frequency, intensity and duration of heat-waves Further decrease of number of cold days and frost extremes future 16 Climate change impacts

17 Water temperature During the 20 th century water temperature in some European rivers/lakes increased 1-3 C past Water temperatures in four selected European rivers and lakes in the 20 th century In line with projected increases in air temperatures, lake surface water temperatures may be around 2 C higher by 2070 future 17 Climate change impacts

18 European precipitation northern Europe % wetter, southern Europe up to 20 % drier ( ) past annual summer Modelled precipitation change between and Observed changes in annual precipitation between Projection ( ) to ( ) : 5-20% increase for northern Europe and 5-30% decrease in southern Europe future 18 Climate change impacts

19 River floods Since 1990, 259 major river floods have been reported in Europe (165 since 2000), the increase is mainly because of better reporting and land-use changes Occurrence of flood events Relative change in 100-year return level of river discharge between and Increase in the occurrence and frequency of flood events in large parts of Europe Less snow accumulation in winter and lower risk of early spring flooding past future 19 Climate change impacts

20 Glaciers The vast majority of European glaciers is in retreat (accelerated since 1980s) Since 1850 the glaciers in the Alps lost about two thirds of their volume past Cumulative specific net mass balance of glaciers from all European glaciated regions Modelled remains of the glacier cover in the European Alps for an increase in average summer air temperature of 1 to 5ºC 5 A 3 C increase in average summer temperature could reduce the existing glacier cover of the Alps by 80% With continuing climate change nearly all smaller glaciers and one third of glacier area in Norway could disappear by 2100 future 20 Regional climate change impacts

21 Climate change and water resources 21 Regional climate change impacts

22 Arctic sea ice Arctic sea ice extent has declined at an accelerating rate, especially in summer The record low ice cover in September 2007 was half of the size of a normal minimum extent in the 1950s past Observed and projected Arctic September sea-ice extent The 2007 minimum sea-ice extent Summer ice is projected to continue to shrink and may even disappear at the height of the summer melt season in the coming decades There will be still substantial ice in winter future 22 Climate change impacts

23 Greenland ice sheet The Greenland ice sheet is losing 100 billion tons of ice per year since the 1990s The contribution of ice-loss from Greenland to global SLR is estimated at mm/year for the period and has since increased past Area of Greenland ice sheet melting No reliable prediction of the future of ice sheets can be made, since internal processes are poorly understood In the long term, melting ice sheets have the largest potential to increase SLR future 23 Climate change impacts

24 Sea level rise Global average SLR during the 20 th century was about 1.7mm/year Recent satellite and tide-gauge data indicate a higher average rate of about 3.1 mm/year in the past 15 years past Projected global average sea-level rise Sea level changes in Europe Sea level will rise 0.18 to 0.59 m from to 2100 (IPCC) Recent projections indicate a future SLR that may exceed the IPCC upper limit future 24 Climate change impacts

25 Simplistic illustration Sea level rise 25 Climate change impacts

26 Adaptation in a small island state? Maldives, small island developing state; mostly 1.5 above sea level Maldivian President Mohamed Nasheed signs a decree of the underwater cabinet meeting on October 17 Maldives active (in AOSIS) at COP15 26 Regional climate change impacts

27 Coastal areas One third of the EU population is estimated to live within 50km of the coast and some 140,000 km² of land is currently within 1m of sea level. Modelled number of people flooded across Europe s s coastal areas in and in the 2080s billion Euro/year economic damages in European coastal areas by 2080 (high emission scenario) Adaptation could significantly reduce the risk to around EUR 1 billion past future 27 Regional climate change impacts

28 Distribution of plant species Climate change causes northward and uphill shift of many European plant species Mountain ecosystems are changing as pioneer species expand uphill and cold-adapted species are driven out of their ranges past Increase in species richness on Swiss Alpine mountain summits in 20 th century Number of disappearing plant species in 2050 Shift of European plant species by hundreds kilometres to the north (by the late 21 st century) Forests are likely to have contracted in the south and expanded in the north 60 % of all mountain species may face extinction future 28 Regional climate change impacts

29 Forest fire danger Fire danger increased during the past 50 years particularly in the Mediterranean and central Europe past summer Average annual change ( ) of fire danger level (SSR) in % per year autumn Projected changes in fire danger for More severe fire weather, more area burned, more ignitions and longer fire seasons Increases in the fire potential during summer month, especially in southern and central Europe Probably an increase in the frequency of extreme fire danger days in spring and autumn future 29 Climate change impacts

30 Agriculture and forestry In summer of 2003 economic losses to farming, livestock and forestry from the combined effects of drought, heat stress and fire were EUR 10 billion Projected crop yield changes (%) between the 2080s and the reference ence period by two models and A2 scenario Economic consequences of climate-related increases in crop yields, mainly in northern Europe and reductions in the Mediterranean, are unknown Also economic consequences of projected changes in forest growth are unknown past future 30 Economic consequences of climate change

31 Examples of potential economic consequences 31 Economic consequences of climate change

32 Adaptation to climate change impacts Examples of adaptation measures: Health/heat waves early warning systems; vaccination Drought and water scarcity risk management; Water demand management Coastal and flood defences; Flood risk planning (early warning systems) Economic diversification Land use management; Natural hazards monitoring Reinforcing built environment (e.g. roads, bridges, wires) Examples of sectoral and thematic issues to address: Water / Energy / Transport / Agriculture / Forestry / Fisheries Urban Design / Health / Spatial planning / Soil Social / Economic / Infrastructure / Tourism Nature protection, biodiversity and ecosystems goods & functions Examples of vulnerable landscapes: Coastal areas and wetlands / Mountains and glaciers / Flood-prone plains / Cities / the Mediterranean / the Arctic 32 Adaptation responses and options

33 Examples Biodiversity Safety Housing 33 Adaptation to climate change

34 Example: Netherlands Delta committee plan, focus on safety (2008) 34 Adaptation to climate change

35 Adaptation options The potential impact of climate change is higher in sectors which rely on ecosystem services, water availability and climatic conditions, such as agriculture and forestry, fisheries and aquaculture, energy and tourism. Adaptation options include: Grey infrastructures (physical intervention using engineering services), Green approaches (which contribute to increasing ecosystems' resilience and, while aiming to halt biodiversity loss and the degradation of ecosystem and restore water cycles, at the same time use the functions and services provided by the ecosystems) and Soft non-structural approaches (information dissemination or economic incentives that require more careful management of the underlying human systems). 35 Adaptation responses and options

36 Adaptation options Early action through existing legislation - Adaptation options have to be mainstreamed in key EU related policies: Water Framework Directive (1st RBMPs) and the Floods Directive Water Scarcity and Droughts policy Marine Strategy Nature protection Directives and Natura2000 CAP reform and agri-environmental schemes of pillar II (e.g. both direct payments and rural development strands) Disaster risk prevention Cohesion and Structural Funds Regional policy Ensure and foster synergies/co-benefits between adaptation and mitigation measures (e.g. reducing water and energy use) and avoid mal-adaptation (3 different types) Please refer to the EC Adaptation White Paper (including the Impact Assessment and the dedicated sectoral papers on Agriculture, Water and Health) 36 Adaptation responses and options

37 Key EU climate change policy making processes Mitigation of climate change: EU climate change and energy package with 2020 targets, EU long term 2050 targets, UNFCCC negotiations (mitigation, adaptation, financing, technology, deforestation), COP15 Copenhagen Dec 2009 EC 2009 White Paper Adapting to climate change : Towards a European Framework for action (2007 EC Adaptation Green Paper) Water Framework Directive (River basin management plans to report by 2010, assessment in 2012); Water Scarcity and Droughts strategy Marine Strategy Framework Directive (achievement of good environmental status of the EU's marine waters by 2020), initial assessment by 2012 Nature protection directives (Habitat and Birds directives) and implementation of the Natura2000 network; policies to halt biodiversity loss (2010 target assessment; SEBI2010); discussion on post EC Green Paper on Prevention of man-made and natural Disasters, Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction (Geneva, June 2009) and first Global Assessment Report on DRR, with links to CC (2009) 2008 EC Green Paper on Territorial Cohesion 37

38 EU Adaptation Framework Phase 1: Four PILLARS (Phase 2: comprehensive EU adaptation strategy from 2013 onwards) PILLAR I PILLAR II PILLAR III PILLAR IV Strengthen the Knowledge/ Evidence Base Mainstream climate Adaptation into key policy areas Employ a combination of policy instruments Advance work internationally on Adaptation Working in Partnership with EU, national, regional and local authorities: Impact and Adaptation Steering Group (IASG) and working groups (e.g. Knowledge Base) Many EU countries have developed national adaptation strategies 38

39 White Paper Adapting to climate change Strengthen the Knowledge/Evidence Base: Clearing House Mechanism (by 2011), a repository/platform for knowledge on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation Research (data, methods, prediction tools, mapping, costs, effectiveness of adaptation actions, analytical and assessments tools, report on adaptive capacity and vulnerability of natural and human systems) Monitoring of actions and data collection networks, including at regional scale Mainstream/integrating climate adaptation into EU policies & Directives: Health Agriculture and forests Biodiversity, ecosystems and water Coastal and marine areas Territorial cohesion (e.g. structural funds) and physical infrastructure Advance work within UNFCCC and bilateral/regional (including mainstreaming and financing; integrate adaptation in EU external relations (developing countries)) Impact and Adaptation Steering Group (e.g. on national adaptation strategies) 39 Adaptation responses and options

40 EU Clearinghouse on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation Objectives Facilitate the collection and dissemination of scientific up-to date information, data and case studies about climate change impacts and vulnerability, and adaptation policies and measures. Assist an effective uptake of this knowledge by EU, national, regional, local or sectoral decision makers. Provide a greater level of co-ordination of sectoral policies and institutional levels Added value Provide a greater level of co-ordination of sectoral policies and institutional levels A portal of information and tools, with defined quality standards, seeking common approaches at EU level. Information mainly from research institutes and public agencies. Focus on harmonized & quality checked EU wide data at maximal resolution, useful for cross-border issues and EU integrated policies Both an IT tool and a PARTNERSHIP Complement but not supersede national initiatives 40 Adaptation responses and options

41 Content of the Clearinghouse Climate change observations and scenarios GMES - Essential climate variables Link with GFCS + regional / national centers Land-use, water, socio-economic observations, statistics and scenarios Impacts & Vulnerability Integration information on climate, land-use, water, ecosystems, socio-economic variables Exposure to impacts, sensitivity and adaptive capacity Detailed geographical and sectoral perspective Vulnerability indicators, policyoriented Adaptation plans and strategies Information on existing adaptation strategies, key institutions and stekeholders Joint activities between MS and third countries (research, adaptation measures) Practical tools for the development of adaptation policy Adaptation measures, actions Extended database of measures Typology Assessment of environmenta l, social, economic impacts 41 Adaptation responses and options Identifying no-regret measures

42 Towards national and regional adaptation strategies The White Paper recognises the need to develop adaptation strategies at EU, national and regional levels National adaptation strategies/plans: Adopted (10): Finland (2005), France (2006), Spain (2006), the Netherlands (2007),Denmark (2008), Germany (2008), Hungary (2008), Norway (2008), United Kingdom (2008), Sweden (2009) Under preparation: Belgium, Estonia, Latvia, Romania IVA assessments: most of the remaining countries Overview table kept up-to-date by the EEA: Regional adaptation strategies Adopted: Andalucia (Spain), North-Rhine Westphalia (Germany), Rhône-Alpes (France) 42 Adaptation responses and options

43 43 Example of national plan/portal (UK)

44 44 Examples of national plan/portal (DE)

45 Options for EU action & challenges Adaptation often focused on flood management and coastal defence Initiatives often not undertaken as stand-alone measures, but embedded within broader sectoral initiatives (disaster management). There is a need to consider both explicit adaptation measures and those undertaken for other reasons that also facilitate adaptation. Consider new policies, e.g. spatial planning as an integration tool Involvement of civil society, business sector organisations and enhanced information exchange Exploit opportunities for innovative adaptation technologies Scope for other adaptation actions: Water demand management (scarcity and droughts) / Natural hazard risk management / Reinforcing infrastructure/built environment / Land-use management and spatial planning, greening of cities / Ecosystem management / Health/heat action plans, health system planning / TEN / Energy 45 Adaptation responses and options

46 Mapping vulnerability of human and natural systems Conceptual framework for climate change impacts, vulnerability, disaster risks and adaptation options Mitigation Greenhouse gas emissions Climate change Exposure Sensitivity Socio-economic, institutional, governance and natural capacity Willingness to adapt Autonomous adaptation Potential impacts Adaptive capacity Vulnerability / Resilience / Risks Damage and adaptation costs Human systems and the natural environment Planned Adaptation 46 Source: Isoard (2010) Mapping vulnerability to climate change Reference: Isoard S. (2010), Perspectives on adaptation to climate change in Europe, in Ford J. D. and Berrang Ford L. (Eds), Climate Change Adaptation in developed nations, Springer.

47 Conclusions Impacts of climate change are already occurring and projected to be more pronounced. Far-reaching impacts of climate change in Europe, with drastic economic consequences Adaptation to climate change has only recently started (with some national/regional adaptation strategy), but can be extended to more sectors and regions and more integrated into other policy areas The White Paper provides a comprehensive EU-wide framework and approach and offer opportunities to advance ideas and set a momentum on both adaptation and disasters risks issues Strengthening the Knowledge/Evidence Base and Mainstreaming adaptation into key policy areas are particularly important There is a need to map vulnerabilities and adaptation options/good practices accross Europe at the right scale to better inform policy makers and avoid maladaptation. There is a need for better information exchange mechanisms in the EU to enhance appropriate, proportionate and cost-effective actions and decisionmaking. The proposed EU Clearinghouse can have many benefits for governments at various levels Assessments at regional and local levels are key for implementing tailor-made adaptation measures which are proportionate and cost-effective 47

48 Auditing climate change adaptation Audits have the potential of providing up-to-date, detailed, and regular information on adaptation measures at national, regional and local levels. (Pillar I of the AWP) The cross-cutting, inter-disciplinary and transboundary nature of climate change adaptation has to be definitively taken into account. Climate change affects all economic sectors, regions and communities in Europe. There is no such thing as one way to approach and implement adaptation measures. There is rather a series of indicative success factors and barriers to adaptation. Performance / Effectiveness indicators for adaptation are not possible. Focus rather on process-based indicators. 48

49 Auditing climate change adaptation Audits could focus on: Strengthening the knowledge base and analysing examples of good practices, costs and mal-adaptation (Pillar I of the AWP) Reviewing mainstreaming of adaptation (Pillar II of the AWP) in relation with key EU policies. Review adaptation measures that are embedded in related policies and support developing guidance Consider grey, green and soft adaptation measures combined with key vulnerable sectors, regions and communities Reviewing governance structures, socio-economic, institutional and natural capacities as they are key elements of the adaptive capacity and ability to manage risks. Updating indicative series of success factors and barriers to adaptation and highlight key uncertainties Fostering information exchange at all levels 49

50 Thank you for your attention! Please do not hesitate to ask the European Environment Agency for information 50