Modeling to Support Management Decisions

Transcription

1 Modeling to Support Management Decisions Presented at the Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling in 2025 and Beyond: A Proactive Visioning Workshop D. Lee Currey, P.E. Co-chair, CBP Modeling Workgroup Director, Water and Science Administration Maryland Department of the Environment

2 For Success, Bay Managers Need Political, financial and science support Restoration plans based on good science to achieve a shared vision Tools that Foster collaboration and innovation Are transparent, relevent, straight-forward and stable Quantify benefit, cost and risk Science that has relevence, integrity and is timely

3 Today s Partnership Models Are Driving Significant Bay Policy And Funding Decisions In 2010 and 2012, a federally-mandated comprehensive set of restoration plans was developed These plans drive billions of dollars in environmental investments The scientific underpinnings to these jurisdictional plans are the CBP Partnership models

4 The Partnership Models Have a Critical Role in Annual Bay TMDL Progress Reviews Reviews include Pollution reduction Programmatic actions Consequences

5 Our success has really been based on partnerships from the very beginning Bill Gates

6 The Chesapeake Bay partnership includes not only 9 Signatories 20 federal partners At least 35 NGO s 26 Academic institutions In addition, engagement with stakeholders is expanding 197 Counties nearly 1,800 local jurisdictions including towns, cities, counties and townships With deccisions that Affect 17 million people Restore and protect streams, rivers and an estuary 6

7 A Sucessful History of Science-Based Decision Making Nitrogen (mil lbs) Phase Models First Bay Agreement Second Bay Agreement Amendments to Agreement Tributary Strategies Third Bay Agreement 2006 STAC Modeling Workshop Water Quality Impairments Acknowledged Phase Models, CAST Chesapeake Bay TMDL Phase I WIP Phase II WIP 2012 Partnership feedback on next gen models Fourth Bay Agreement Midpoint Assessment 2025 Phase 6 Model, CAST Midpoint Assessment 2018 begin next gen model Phase III WIP 2025 Goal - TMDL practices fully implemented

8 Phase 5 delivered finer decision scales, more data, and refined processes

9 CAST Provided Partnership Accessibility Chesapeake Bay Airshed Chesapeake Bay Land Model Change Model About 5,000 users! Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model 9 Chesapeake Bay Scenario Builder

10 CAST is running on the laptop! Photo by Dave Harp

11 The recently approved Phase 6 suite of models are better and have more buy-in because of review and feedback Modeling WG and Team, about 7 years from start to finish Scientists: Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee Multiple modeling strategy Phosphorus, Conowingo, fine scale processes and climate change, uncertainty Review Managers: Water Quality Goal Implementation Team Regional factors, conowingo, scale, transparancy Better input data, more BMPs with cost Engaged in Phase 6 early, beginning year Review with fatal flaw review

12 Phase 6 is Being Used to Set Pollution Caps that Meet State Water Quality Standards

13 P 6 Results Matter More Impact, Do More!

14 Partnership is gearing up and going local with extensive use of Phase 6 Dec 2017 May 2018 February 2019 June 2019 Draft Targets Set Final Targets Draft Phase III WIP Final Phase III WIP yr Milestones development 2025 Implementation in place STAC Visioning Workshop Partnership experience and feedback Next generation model development

15 My Take at Top 10 Management Topics 1. Strategies to reach and maintain 2025 pollution cap 2. Optimizing environmental investments; tradeoffs and co-benefits 3. Tools to engage and that are helpful to partners 4. Understanding climate change impacts, especially BMP resilience/effectiveness 5. Lower Susquehanna Reservoirs 6. Population growth, land conservation and land conversion 7. Supporting Markets - Water Quality Trading Tracking and Accounting 8. Quantify decision-making risk 9. Finer scale to better support management decisions 10. Other pollutants and indicators necessary for restoration Synthesizing STAC Literature

16 Summary: To 2025 and Beyond Models are the key decision drivers for the Federally Mandated Bay TMDL Next-gen modeling tools must Be responsive to Bay and watershed restoration issues Improve collaboration and innovation toward restoration Be transparent, straight forward and stable Improve decision support to quantify benefit(s), cost and risk Get management feedback on Phase 6 Supporting science must have Relevance, integrity and timeliness

17 Thank You!!! Lee Currey

18 Goal of Talk from Gary At the STAC modeling workshop next week, there will be folks who are very familiar with CBP models and how they are used, and there will be folks who are relatively new to the CBP family. We need the two of you to use 40 minutes of presentation and discussion to impress upon the workshop participants, the following points (and any others that you think important) 1. These models are USED. These are not academic models that sit on the shelf or move ahead depending on the energy of a developer. There is a long history of direct use by the partnership to make decisions 2. The partnership, as a consequence of #1 is extremely interested and participates in the creation of the models. 3. the participation is crucial to the eventual buy-in and also results in better models 4. We must be on time and the models cannot fail. => We can shoot for the moon, but there must be backup plans. Short history of TMDL and partnership models. Idea would be to make non-cbp regulars aware of the long history of direct connection to management and the likely timelines and uses for future modeling