OVERVIEW OF TRENDS IN WORLD GAS DEVELOPMENT AND USE

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "OVERVIEW OF TRENDS IN WORLD GAS DEVELOPMENT AND USE"

Cody Sparks
5 years ago
Views:

1 OVERVIEW OF TRENDS IN WORLD GAS DEVELOPMENT AND USE International Symposium on Natural Gas and Sustainable Development Doha, Qatar 6-8 February 2006 Ian Cronshaw Head, Energy Diversification Division

World Primary Energy Demand 18 000 16 000 Mtoe 14 000 12 000 10 000 8 000 6

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Oil and gas together account for more than

2 World Primary Energy Demand Mtoe Oil Gas Coal Other renewables Nuclear Hydro Oil and gas together account for more than 60% of the growth in energy demand between now and 2030 in the Reference Scenario

3 World Oil Production Shifts Away from OECD 2.2 mb/d 10.2 mb/d 13.5 mb/d 20.2 mb/d OECD 30.9 mb/d MENA Other NCO 41.2 mb/d 50.5 mb/d 29.0 mb/d Global oil production climbs from 82 mb/d in 2004 to 115 mb/d in 2030; OECD share falls from 25% to 12%

4 Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region China 16% India 4% Other 11% MENA 6% India 6% Other 16% MENA 8% China 19% Transition economies 11% 24 Gt OECD 52% Transition economies 9% 37 Gt OECD 42% Global emissions grow by just over half between now and 2030, with the bulk of the increase coming from developing countries

5 Net Natural Gas Imports by Major Region in the Reference Scenario Mtoe OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific China India

6 The power sector is the driver of OECD European gas demand growth mtoe Res./Com. & Others Industry Power Source: World Energy Outlook 2004

7 And the power sector relies more and more on natural gas (and renewables) (OECD Europe) TWh Electricity generation OECD Europe 26% 32% 19% 20% 16% 6% 7% 5% Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass and waste Other Renewables %: Share of gas in electricity generation Source: World Energy Outlook 2004

8 But, downward revisions Changing Outlook for gas demand by the power sector Mtoe WEO 1998 WEO 2000 WEO 2002 WEO 2004

9 Europe (EU 25) is becoming increasingly dependent on outside suppliers bcm Production Net imports

10 MENA Share in World Oil and Gas Reserves & Production, 2004 Proven oil reserves Oil production Proven gas reserves Gas production 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% MENA share of global oil & gas reserves is much higher than its share of current production, suggesting strong potential for growth

11 MENA Natural Gas Production by Country bcm Other Egypt Qatar UAE S. Arabia Iran Algeria Output surges from 385 bcm in 2003 to bcm in 2030, with most of the increase coming from Qatar, Iran, Algeria & Saudi Arabia

12 MENA Net Natural Gas Exports by Country Qatar Algeria Iran Libya Other Middle East Egypt Iraq bcm Qatar overtakes Algeria by 2010 as the largest MENA gas exporter

13 Share of International Gas Export Growth between 2004 and % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Russia Iran Algeria Qatar Qatar will account for almost one quarter of the increase in gas interregional trade between 2004 and 2030

14 Total MENA Energy Investment, Other North Africa Libya Egypt Kuwait Iraq Algeria UAE Qatar Other Middle East Iran Saudi Arabia billion dollars (2004) Oil Gas Electricity About $1.5 trillion, or $56 billion per year, of investment are needed to expand capacity & replace facilities that are retired

15 Deferred Investment Scenario How would global energy markets evolve if investment MENA upstream oil industry grew slower than in the Reference Scenario? Investment is assumed to remain constant at its share of historical GDP in each country MENA oil production is lower compared to the Reference Scenario, and the gap is widening over time Oil prices are driven higher - an increase of 32% over the Reference Scenario in dragging up gas, coal and electricity prices MENA gas production is also lower compared to the Reference Scenario due to Reduced global gas demand & call on MENA gas Lower associated oil/gas output

16 MENA Net Natural Gas Exports bcm bcm bcm bcm Reference Scenario Deferred Investment Scenario MENA gas exports are much lower in the DIS, as higher gas prices & lower GDP choke off demand in the main importing regions

17 Oil/Gas Demand in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios mb/d 500 bcm mb/d bcm Oil Gas Reference Scenario 2030 Alternative Scenario Oil & gas demand in the Alternative Scenario are both 10% lower in 2030 due to significant energy savings and a shift in the energy mix

18 Global Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios million tonnes of CO Coal Oil Gas Alternative Policy Scenario Reference Scenario In 2030, CO 2 emissions are 16% lower than in the Reference Scenario, but are still more than 50% higher than 1990

19 DEVELOPMENTS IN March 2005: late cold snap in Europe August 2005: Hurricane damage affects 20 per cent of US gas output January : Western European gas supplies affected January 2006: Georgia, Armenia affected January-February 2006: Italy affected WDATM? Outlook for Gas-in-Power? Globalised gas markets? Approaches to Gas Security

20 Key Messages If governments stick with current policies, global energy needs will be more than 50% higher in 2030 than today - Gas plays an important and growing role But gas production in IEA countries is plateauing or falling In any plausible scenario, MENA oil & gas resources will be critical to meeting the world s growing appetite for energy In gas, MENA production to treble; Countries like Qatar, Iran and Algeria will play key roles Russia is a key player in the gas market also

21 Further underinvestment in oil and gas would drive up prices & depress global GDP growth, eventually harming producers too Importing countries must have a policy environment conducive to investment Major importing countries are already considering more vigorous policies to curb demand growth, reduce reliance on oil and gas and improve environmental outcomes Continued need for dialogue between producers and consumers to find mutually beneficial outcomes

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2005 Middle East & North Africa Insights

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2005 Middle East & North Africa Insights Nicola Pochettino Senior Energy Analyst Global Energy Trends: Reference Scenario International Energy Price Assumptions The assumed oil-price