Climate Change and Air quality. Air pollutants

Transcription

1 Climate Change and Air quality Air pollutants

2 Impacts of Human Activities are Felt on Scales from Local to Global Slides courtesy of Prof. Gregory R. Carmichael, University of Iowa

3 Smith et al.

4 Interactions between mitigating climate change and addressing other environmental problems Air quality Acid deposits Replacement of coal and heavy oil Reduction of SO2 and NOx Biodiversity loss Use of biomass Reduction of CFCs Ozone depletion Sequestration, use of biomass Hydro power Forestry Reforestation Water Desertification

5 U.S Total CO 2 emission s since 1950 in billions of tons European Union Russia 68.4 Canada 14.9 Ukraine 21.7 Poland 14.4 Kazakhstan 10.1 China 57.6 Japan 31.2 Mexico 7.8 Trinidad and Tobago South Africa 8.5 Kuwait United Arab Emirate s India 15.5 Australia 7.6

6 Air Pollution Emissions Trends Differ by SO 2 Emissions Region!Asia energy consumption is ~20% of the world s total (1995), projected to reach ~30% in China China s energy needs are projected to continue to grow at substantial rates, and with a continued reliance on coal Sulfur emissions may follow the same trend kilotons SO Factors contributing to the decline of European SO 2 emissions Actual SO2 emissions Energy structure Energy technology Emission control technology Source: Wuester, 2000

7 Urban Environments in Asia 4%/yr urban growth rate in Asia-Pacific region 23 megacities in 1995 (17 in developing countries) to 36 in 2025 (23 in Asia) Asia presently has ~1 billion urban dwellers, projected to grow to ~3 billion in Asian Megacities will account for ~40% of GNP in 2025 Each 1 million urban inhabitants emit average of 25,000 tons of CO 2 every day (six times global per capita average) Indoor and Outdoor air pollution pose severe human health concerns

8 The University of Iowa, USA Health impact of urban air pollution in China Health Economic valuation impacts $ per unit m$ in total Mortality Premature death Morbidity (1000 cases) Respiratory hospital admissions Emergency room visits Lower respiratory infection/child asthma Asthma attacks Respiratory symptoms Chronic bronchitis Restricted days (years) Total Source: Shah and Peng, et al, 2001 ~ 5-8% of China s GDP is lost every year to air pollution health effects This might increase to 15% of GDP/year by 2030

9 Reductions of emissions of CO2 and particulates precursors are positively correlated: PM2.5 Precursors Reduction (%) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% CNG vs EPA94 diesel bus Particulate Traps 00 Taxi Renovation Extended buses lifespan Res:Kerosene to NG Boilers: Diesel to NG Diesel-electric buses Wood to NG (deforestation) Incandescent to CFL Mercury to sodium lamps Efficient fluorescent lights -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Carbon Reduction (%) Local pollution health benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions are significant

10 Beyond CO 2 mitigation Could a health-based approach to reducing air pollution/greenhouse gas emissions work in the U.S.? Beyond CO 2 emission mitigation issues, reduction of global emissions in future will affect Northern Hemisphere air quality.

11 OZONE TREND AT EUROPEAN MOUNTAIN SITES, Marenco et al. [1994] Increase is important from pollution and climate perspectives } Preindustrial ozone models

12 THIS OZONE BACKGROUND IS A SIZABLE INCREMENT TOWARDS VIOLATION OF U.S. AIR QUALITY STANDARDS (e ven more s o in Euro pe!) Europe (8-h avg.) Europe (s eas onal) U.S. (8-h avg.) U.S. (1-h avg.) ppbv preindustrial present background

13 These dust outbreaks caused severe problems in China These photos are reduced-resolution versions of photos taken by Dr. Zev Levin while visiting Baicheng, Jilin Province, China (NE of Beijing) during the dust storm. The first two were taken on April 7th. The third was taken on April 8th. The two buildings seen in the foreground of the third image are also seen in the second From P. Westphals web site:

14 Visitors to Death Valley, California were puzzled by a persistent haze over the past weekend (April 14th and 15th, 2001). In a region where the skies are almost always crystal clear, visibility was limited to no more than 10 miles. The likely cause was dust, carried across the Pacific Ocean from the deserts of Asia.

15 The dust cloud passed over the Midwest, over NE US and into the Atlantic. As reported by: From: GOES8 (East) view of dust streak on the evening of Friday 13 th

16 Atmospheric composition in the 21 st century Trop. O 3 Mean abundance of background tropospheric ozone will increase from ppbv to ppbv in 2100 Background level of ozone in the northern mid-latitudes will be close to the current clean-air standard. No longer be possible to regulate air quality locally!