UNEP Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone, and its Precursors

Transcription

1 UNEP Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone, and its Precursors An Overview of Progress by the Assessment Secretariat Kevin Hicks and Johan Kuylenstierna, SEI and GAP Forum IUAPPA World Clean Air Congress Vancouver,15 th September 2010

2 UNEP Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone, and its Precursors One of a number of assessments focussing on black carbon, but includes ozone and its precursors and a stronger policy and global focus Report (~150 pages) and summary for decision makers by end 2010 To provide credible overview of science (uncertainties) and also concentrate policies that can reduce emissions and impacts, that is made as policy relevant as possible Will coordinate with other assessments especially the Bounding BC assessment Is assessing the literature and also undertaking bespoke modelling to support the assessment with a focus on overall benefits of measures

3 Assessment Chair: Assessment Vice Chairs: Drew Shindell (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies) Frank Raes (EU Joint Research Centre, Ispra) V. Ramanathan (Scripps Institute, University of California, San Diego) Kim Oanh, Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) Luis Cifuentes, Pontificia Universidad Católica,Chile Assessment Scientific Secretariat: UNEP Coordinator: Johan Kuylenstierna, Kevin Hicks, SEI / Global Atmospheric Pollution Forum Volodymyr Demkine, UNEP DEWA

4 Outline Chapter 1: Introduction 5-10 pages Chapter 2: Emissions of black carbon and tropospheric ozone precursors: drivers, emissions and trends (CLA: David Streets pages) Chapter 3: Atmospheric processes, tropospheric ozone and black carbon concentrations, deposition, and radiative forcing (CLA: David Fowler pages) Chapter 4: Chapter 5: Impacts of black carbon and tropospheric ozone (CLA: Lisa Emberson pages Options for policy responses (CLA: Martin Williams pages) Chapter 6: Conclusions 5-10 pages

5 Key issues for the Story Line The reason for undertaking the assessment now is the interest in short term forcers and in mitigating climate change The assessment is including both radiative forcing and air pollutant impacts to highlight the potential co-benefits that arise by addressing these substances The assessment must ensure that t it does not distract t attention ti away from CO 2 reduction or detract from the need to address SO 2 and other pollutants The assessment focus is on the additional measures we can take to reduce emissions of primary particulate matter and ozone precursors, including methane, that can have a joint climate and health benefit.

6 For the modelling to support the assessment, measures chosen for their potential to have a large influence and affect both on warming and air pollution impacts Approach to the selection of measures: 1. Develop emission projections for all substances 2. Rank mitigation measures by their net impact on warming of their CH 4 /BC/OC/CO/SO 2 emission changes, and pick top 15 measures 3. Estimate their overall mitigation potentials 4. Determine co-benefits

7 Data sources Activity projections of IEA World Energy Outlook 2009, Baseline case and 450 ppm GHG stabilization scenario GAINS emission factors and mitigation measures Literature data on warming potentials

8 Three Groups of Measures Considered Measures that affect emissions of methane to be implemented centrally by large multi-national and national energy companies, municipalities and through modified agricultural practices; Technical measures that reduce emissions of black carbon mainly at small stationary and mobile sources; Non-technical measures to eliminate the most polluting activities e.g., through h improved enforcement of legislation l or through h economic and technical assistance to the poorest populations hypothetical analysis to explore importance of these sources.

9 Group 1: Technical measures for methane emissions i 1. Extended recovery of coal mine gas 2. Extended recovery and flaring (instead of venting) of associated gas from production of crude oil and natural gas 3. Reduced gas leakage at compressor stations in long-distance gas transmission pipelines 4. Separation and treatment of biodegradable municipal waste through recycling, composting and anaerobic digestion 5. Upgrading primary wastewater treatment to secondary/tertiary treatment with gas recovery and overflow control 6. Control of methane emissions from livestock, mainly through farm-scale anaerobic digestion of manure from cattle and pigs with liquid manure management 7. Intermittent aeration of continuously flooded rice paddies

10 Group 2: Technical measures for black carbon 1. Replacing traditional coke ovens with modern recovery ovens, including the improvement of end-of-pipe abatement measures (in developing countries) 2. Replacing traditional brick kilns with vertical shaft kilns and Hoffman kilns where considered feasible (in developing countries) 3. Wide-scale introduction of pellets stoves and boilers in the residential sector (in industrialized countries) 4. Diesel particle filters for road vehicles and off-road mobile sources (excluding shipping) 5. Particle control at stationary engines

11 Group 3: Non-technical measures 1. Elimination of high-emitting g vehicles in road and off-road transport (excluding shipping) 2. Ban of open burning of agricultural waste 3. Elimination of biomass cook stoves in developing countries This analysis explores only the theoretical potential of such measures, but not the feasibility of their implementation

12 Preliminary Conclusions (1) Reductions in methane emissions (a key ozone precursor) are extremely likely to mitigate near-term warming. The effect of reductions in emissions of products of incomplete combustion (such as black carbon) have a much larger uncertainty, but are also likely to mitigate near-term warming. These measures have an especially large influence in the Northern Hemisphere, in particular for the Arctic. The measures examined for methane and products of incomplete combustion, including aggressive application of current emissions control technology and substantial shifts in human behaviour, cannot offset the longer-term warming due to projected increases in long-lived greenhouse gases (especially CO 2 ). As well as likely success in reducing near-term warming, the measures dramatically improve health (millions of premature deaths avoided) and improve crop yields (10s of millions of tonnes for staple crops) and the economic savings are considerable (trillions of dollars) and are likely to exceed costs on implementing measures.

13 Preliminary Conclusions (2) Reducing emissions of methane and products of incomplete combustion is very likely the best, and perhaps the only, strategy with a clear potential to mitigate near-term warming, Reducing emissions of CO 2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases is essenital to mitigate long-term warming. Long-lived greenhouse gas emissions reductions are very unlikely to mitigate near-term warming due to their slow response time, and this same property means that emissions reductions must begin soon even for long-term warming mitigation. It should be stressed that these results are preliminary and should not be quoted at this stage but they indicate that the assessment could have significant implications for the climate debate.

14 Overview of the Process to Develop the Assessment September Draft 1 of Main report Draft SDM End September 3 rd Assessment and Production Meeting October External review of Draft 1 Assessment and SDM November Deal with review comments December By February 2011 Final draft for sign off Finalise the SDM Printed

15 and finally If you are interested in participating in the external review process please contact the Secretariat at:

16 Thank you

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