Including other aspects in a quantification tool: Going beyond long-term climate change with a focus on Short- Lived Climate Pollutants

Transcription

1 Including other aspects in a quantification tool: Going beyond long-term climate change with a focus on Short- Lived Climate Pollutants Johan C.I. Kuylenstierna Policy Director, Stockholm Environment Institute CCAC Science Advisory Panel member ISWA/UNEP Workshop on GHG and SLCP Emission Quantification Methodologies, September, 2013 johan.kuylenstiernauk@sei-international.org

2 Talk contents Part 1: Explain Short-Lived Climate Pollutants Discuss the climate impact of implementing BC and methane measures at different timescales Discuss the benefits for climate, health and crop yield Part 2: CCAC SNAP Initiative national (not city) planning for all sectors, including methane from waste and BC from waste burning SNAP Toolkit to estimate the impact of emission reductions on health, crops and climate and linkage to waste sector

3 PART 1: UNEP/WMO Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone Johan Kuylenstierna, Stockholm Environment Institute, SEI, Scientific Coordinator and lead author Drew Shindell, NASA-GISS, Chair; Vice-Chairs: Frank Raes, Joint Research Centre, EC; V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Kim Oanh, AIT; Luis Cifuentes, Catholic University of Chile Coordinating lead authors: David Streets, Argonne National Laboratory; David Fowler, CEH; Lisa Emberson, SEI; Martin Williams, Kings College London 50 Contributors, over 100 reviewers UNEP/WMO Coordinators: Volodymyr Demkine, UNEP / Liisa Jalkanen, WMO

4 What are short-lived climate pollutants? Black carbon Tropospheric ozone Methane some Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs )

5 What are short-lived climate pollutants? Characteristics Relatively short-lived in the atmosphere Act as air pollutants (except HFCs) One of the causes of global warming (mainly in the near term) Multiple benefits of reducing SLCPs: Reduce air pollution - Protect health and crops Slow down near-term global warming, reduce regional impacts of climate change

6 Lifetimes in the atmosphere HFCs Average of mix: 15 years

7 troposphere stratosphere Tropospheric Ozone formed from precursor emissions 8 15 km Stratospheric O 3 chemical production chemical destruction CH 4 CO VOCs NO X O 3 deposition

8 Impact of the Tropospheric Ozone on Crop yields Exposure of wheat to ozone in Pakistan Filtered Clean air Air with ambient ozone

9 A package of 16 measures can substantially reduce emissions and achieve multiple benefits Mitigation measures ranked by net climate impact of emission changes Considering CO, CH 4, BC, OC, SO 2, NO X, NMVOCs, and CO 2 Picked the top measures about 90% of warming benefit Black carbon measures addressing emissions from incomplete combustion - BC, OC, methane, CO, NMVOCs Methane measures reducing methane emissions No technical breakthroughs These measures already implemented in many countries Cost-effective

10 The measures aiming at reducing methane emissions Intermittent aeration -paddy Recovery from wastewater Recovery from oil and gas Recovery from landfill Recovery from livestock manure /change feed Coal mine methane capture Reducing pipeline leakage

11 The measures aiming to reduce black carbon emissions Improved biomass stoves Modern coke ovens Remove big smokers / DPF Cooking with clean fuel Pellet biomass heating stoves Improved brick kilns Coal briquettes replacing coal Reduce agricultural burning Reduce flaring

12 Effect of measures on global emissions projected in 2030 relative to Reference emissions in BC measures fully implemented in Methane measures fully implemented in 2030

13 Result for Global Temperature Change: CO 2 and SLCP measures are complementary strategies Source: UNEP/WMO (2011). Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone. UNEP, Nairobi

14 Result for Global Temperature Change: Methane Measures account for approx 50% of reduction in temperature increase Approx 50% from BC measures reducing incomplete combustion

15 Assessment Bond et al, 2013

16 Climate forcing during the first year after emission, for selected individual sources from the Bounding BC study. High confidence in attribution of forcing Low confidence Total (low plus high together)

17 Comparing SLCPs with long-lived GHGs using climate metrics expressed as CO 2 e has problems Converting black carbon and methane emission reductions from implementing the 16 measures to CO 2 equivalents, over a twenty and one hundred-year time frame. Units: Gt CO 2 e Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) have impacts that differ substantially from those of long-lived greenhouse gases, making comparisons between them complex. Any comparison of their impacts is applicable only to a particular quantity at a particular time.

18 Regional Climate Changes: Preventing Disturbance of Rainfall Patterns Change in atmospheric forcing at 2030 relative to the reference case in the two models. Dark areas: where the biggest energy change to warming of the atmosphere occurs This drives regional weather pattern changes

19 Premature mortality avoided (1000s of deaths) 2.4 million avoided premature deaths - from outdoor PM S, W & C Asia 1.1 million deaths/yr Africa 200 thousand deaths/yr NE,SE & P Asia 0.9 million deaths/yr

20 Benefits of Measures on Crop yields (from reduced ozone concentrations) About 32 (range 21-57) million tonnes yield loss avoided in 2030 for four staple crops (rice, wheat, maize, soybean) In Asia and Pacific About 13 million tonnes from BC measures About 7.5 million tonnes from methane measures

21 CCAC Initiatives PART 2: CCAC SNAP Initiative Supporting National Planning for Action on SLCPs

22 Three main parts 1. Develop pilot national SLCP planning for four countries waste is one sector 2. Develop guidance document 3. Develop toolkit for emission inventories; scenarios; impact / benefits of implementing measures Iterative improvement of these three during project

23 CCAC SNAP Toolkit First phase Developing the SNAP Toolkit Components LEAP-SLCP Emission scenario tool SLCP Rapid Benefits Calculator BenMAP-CE Based on SEI s LEAP Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system Benefits calculator developed with US EPA and University of Colorado BenMAP-CE developed by US EPA

24 CCAC SNAP Toolkit First phase LEAP-SLCP Emission scenario tool In Phase I added sector structure relevant for SLCPs / air pollutants added default emission factors from various sources Simple structure mainly designed for countries starting out on process Waste emissions for methane and products of incomplete combustion (from waste burning and transport) can be included

25 Rapid Benefits Calculator Excel-based prototype developed by SEI and USEPA Source-receptor relationships using GEOS-Chem Adjoint Model Dose-response relationships for health advice from US EPA For Crops SEI provided D-R with data from JRC For global climate use results from GEOS-Chem linked with temperature response calculates radiative forcing and temperature change by latitude band and globally

26 EXAMPLE RESULTS: Black carbon emissions reduced by modern coke ovens in Colombia Result from LEAP-SLCP 2030 baseline Total emissions reduced 2030 modern coke oven scenario Coke oven emissions reduced

27 Result from Rapid Benefits Calculator EXAMPLE RESULTS: Premature mortality reduced by 830

28 LEAP-SLCP Calculating BC emissions from open waste burning Waste/Incinerator type Municipal: Mass burn refractory wall Modular excess air Modular starved air Refuse-derived fuel-fired Trench Open burning Industrial/commercial: Multiple chamber Total emissions Single chamber A Quantity of waste incinerated (kt) P BC emission factor (kg/tonne waste) Default Q BC emissions (tonnes) Q = A x P g 0.00 g Derived from Bond et al. (2004) assuming PM 1.0 factor of 0.5 of which BC and OC represent 0.37 each What about dioxins another health benefit from reducing open waste burning!

29 SNAP Toolkit Estimating Emissions Calculating Methane emissions from waste Sector: Waste Sub-sector: Landfill A B C D E F G H I J K Population whose waste is collected a (urban only for developing countries) Per capita MSW generation rate b Total MSW generated Fraction of MSW disposed to solid waste disposal sites Methane correction factor (fraction) Degradable organic carbon (fraction) Fraction DOC dissimilated Fraction of CH 4 in landfill gas Recovered CH 4 (R) Oxidation factor (fraction) (tonnes/cap/yr) (A x B/1000) (MSW F ) (MCF) (DOC) (DOC F ) (F) (kt /year) (OX) (kt) (kt) Default b Default c Default d Default e Default e Default e Default e CH 4 emissions Various methods to calculate DOC

30 How vehicle emissions (on and off road) would be calculated Create a new branch of diesel off-road vehicles and add appropriate emission factors

31 An Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone Near-term Climate and Clean Air Benefits: Actions for Controlling Short-Lived Climate Forcers

32 SNAP Toolkit Estimating Emissions Calculating Methane emissions from waste a Only include that part of the population whose waste is collected - in developing countries this is just the urban population. b For country and regional default per capita MSW generation rates and fraction disposed of to solid waste disposal site (SWDS) see IPCC (2006), Vol 5, Chapter 2, Table 2A.1 shown below or go to c IPCC (2006) default MCF for uncategorised solid waste disposal site (SWDS). If waste disposal site management practice is known then then refer to IPCC, 2006; Vol 5, Chapter 3, Table 3.1 shown below or go to d IPCC (1996) default range for developing countries. For specific value refer to Table 6-1 below or For more precise and up to date method refer to IPCC 2006 (Vol 5, Chapter 2, Section Data.pdf) e IPCC (2006) default value for uncategorised SWDSs. (For OX, use 0.1 if managed and covered with methane oxidising material such as soil or compost.)

33 The share of global temperature reduction from methane measures

34 The Impact of Methane measures implemented in Asia and Pacific (NE, SE, S, W and C Asia and Pacific on global temperatures Rice Waste Recovery from oil and gas Recovery of Coal Mine methane

35 The share of global temperature reduction from black carbon measures

36 The Impact of BC measures implemented in Asia-Pacific on global temperatures Ban ag. EURO VI burning standards Ban high emitting vehicles Coal briquettes

37 Regional Warming Benefits Comparison of regional mean warming over land ( C) - change in 2070 compared with 2005 for the reference scenario and the SLCP measures scenario. 0.6 o C benefit 0.8 o C benefit

38 Benefits of Reduced Rate of Regional Warming Halving the rate of near term warming in S,W & C Asia will: - Reduce the melting rate of glaciers - Reduce the change to agriculture implied by increased temperature - Reduce changes in distribution of different species, vegetation types, reducing biodiversity loss - Allow more time for vulnerable communities to adapt