Overview of Climate Change & Impacts to the Columbia Basin

Transcription

1 Overview of Climate Change & Impacts to the Columbia Basin Oct. 18, 2016 Future of Our Salmon Conference Portland, OR David Rupp Oregon Climate Change Research Institute Oregon State University

2 Overview of Climate Change & Impacts to the Columbia Basin Oct. 18, 2016 Future of Our Salmon Conference Portland, OR David Rupp Oregon Climate Change Research Institute Oregon State University Bart Nijssen UW Hydro Computational Hydrology University of Washington

3 Outline 1. Summary of climate projections from global climate 2. Climate model goodness : How much does it matter? 3. Overview of impacts: Hydrology

4 1. Summary of climate projections

5 Global Climate Model Projections for the Columbia Basin** Temperature anomaly* ( C) *Difference from average **Above Bonneville Dam Source: Rupp, Abatzoglou & Mote, Climate Dynamics, 2016, accepted

6 Global Climate Model Projections for the Columbia Basin** Temperature anomaly* ( C) *Difference from average **Above Bonneville Dam Source: Rupp, Abatzoglou & Mote, Climate Dynamics, 2016, accepted.

7 Global Climate Model Projections for the Columbia Basin** Temperature anomaly* ( C) 5 o F raises snow line by ~1,800 ft *Difference from average **Above Bonneville Dam Source: Rupp, Abatzoglou & Mote, Climate Dynamics, 2016, accepted.

8 Global Climate Model Projections for the Columbia Basin Precipitation anomaly* (%) *Relative difference from average Source: Rupp, Abatzoglou & Mote, Climate Dynamics, 2016, accepted.

9 Precipitation changes by season: Columbia Basin *Difference from average Source: Rupp, Abatzoglou & Mote, Climate Dynamics, 2016, accepted.

10 Precipitation changes by season: Columbia Basin *Difference from average Source: Rupp, Abatzoglou & Mote, Climate Dynamics, 2016, accepted.

11 Change in upper troposphere winds to , RCP8.5 Oct-Jan L Jun-Sep H Source: Rupp, Abatzoglou & Mote, Climate Dynamics, 2016, accepted.

12 Temperature changes by season: Columbia Basin F *Difference from average Source: Rupp, Abatzoglou & Mote, Climate Dynamics, 2016, accepted.

13 Temperature changes by season: Columbia Basin F *Difference from average Source: Rupp, Abatzoglou & Mote, Climate Dynamics, 2016, accepted.

14 Temperature changes by season: Columbia Basin ~3 F more warming in summer due to decrease in precipitation (less water for evaporative cooling) F *Difference from average Source: Rupp, Abatzoglou & Mote, Climate Dynamics, 2016, accepted.

15 2. Climate model goodness : how much does it matter?

16 Model evaluation: Pacific Northwest seasonal cycle Temperature LEGEND Precipitation Gray: Modeled Black, dashed: Modeled average Color: Observed Source: Rupp et al., Journol of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2013.

17 18 Metrics 31 Global climate GCM Performance Quilt Relative error Highest Metric Lowest Less error GCM More error (Ordered by sum total of relative errors. All metrics treated equally.)

18 Temperature change in the Columbia Basin vs. model ranking to , RCP8.5 Top half: +9.6 F Bottom half: +7.0 F Source: Rupp, Abatzoglou & Mote, Climate Dynamics, 2016, accepted.

19 Precipitation change in the Columbia Basin vs. model ranking to , RCP8.5 Top half: +10% Bottom half: +6% Source: Rupp, Abatzoglou & Mote, Climate Dynamics, 2016, accepted.

20 Acknowledgments Bonneville Power Administration USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture Northwest Climate Science Center National Science Foundation Photo credit: Julie Zwart

21 3. Impacts to the basin: streamflow

22 Estimates of Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest Bart Nijssen University of Wasington Future of Our Salmon Conference 2016 October 18, 2016 UW HYDRO COMPUTATIONAL HYDROLOGY DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING

23 Project team Computational Hydrology Group, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington! Bart Nijssen (PI), Oriana Chegwidden, Hörđur Helgason, Joe Hamman, Yixin Mao! Lead; responsible for hydrologic modeling, overall project success Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, Oregon State University! Phil Mote (co-pi), David Rupp! Responsible for climate data acquisition, analysis and processing UW HYDRO COMPUTATIONAL HYDROLOGY DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING 23

24 Project synopsis: goals Update: Evaluate the implica>ons of climate change as projected by the CMIP5 global model simula>ons for the hydrology of the Columbia River Basin Extension: Assess the effects of methodological choices on the hydrologic projec>ons (e.g. hydrologic model, downscaling method, global climate model) 24

25 Historic runoff pattern 25

26 Modeling chain for climate impacts emission scenarios global climate downscaling and bias correction hydrologic

27 Emission scenarios RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

28 Emission scenarios Global climate CanESM2 CCSM4 CNRM-CM5 CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 GFDL-ESM2M HadGEM2-CC HadGEM2-ES inmcm4 IPSL-CM5A-MR MIROC5

29 Emission scenarios Global climate Downscaling and bias correction Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) Dynamical Downscaling

30 Emission scenarios Global climate Downscaling and bias correction Hydrologic Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC)

31 Emission scenarios Global climate Downscaling and bias correction Hydrologic Parameters from Shih Chieh Kao at Oak Ridge National Laboratory Hydrologic model parameter sets In-house calibration Parameters from Martyn Clark at NCAR

32 Emission scenarios Global climate Downscaling and bias correction Hydrologic Hydrologic model parameter sets

33 Emission scenarios Global climate Downscaling and bias correction Hydrologic Hydrologic model parameter sets

34 Emission scenarios Global climate Downscaling and bias correction Hydrologic Hydrologic model parameter sets

35 Emission scenarios Global climate Downscaling and bias correction Hydrologic Hydrologic model parameter sets

36 Emission scenarios Global climate Downscaling and bias correction Hydrologic Hydrologic projection ensemble member Hydrologic model parameter sets

37 Emission scenarios Global climate Downscaling and bias correction Hydrologic Hydrologic projection ensemble member Hydrologic model parameter sets

38 Hydrologic simulations: overview Parameter Set 1 BCSD downscaling MACA downscaling Dynamical downscaling RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 8.5 VIC Parameter Set 2 Parameter Set 3 PRMS Parameter Set 1 Each represents one of 172 ensemble members 38

39 emission scenarios global climate downscaling and bias correction hydrologic

40 emission scenarios global climate downscaling and bias correction hydrologic

41 Climate Model Output Change in precipitation and temperature upstream of The Dalles as projected by ten global climate downscaled using BCSD 41

42 Climate Model Output Change in precipitation and temperature upstream of The Dalles as projected by ten global climate downscaled using BCSD Temperature Precipitation to

43 emission scenarios global climate downscaling and bias correction hydrologic

44 April 1 Snow Water Equivalent RCP 8.5: GCM ensemble mean, BCSD-downscaling, VIC model Areas in tan: < 10 mm April 1 SWE 44

45 April 1 Snow Water Equivalent (% change) RCP 8.5: GCM ensemble mean, BCSD-downscaling, VIC model Areas in tan: < 10 mm April 1 SWE 45

46 The New Normal? RCP 8.5: 10 GCMs, BCSD-downscaling, VIC model Annual maximum SWE: Period in which the 10 th percentile during becomes the 50 th percentile 46

47 Study domain 47 Figure courtesy of Robert Norheim, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington 47

48 VIC-modeled bias-corrected streamflow (using BCSDdownscaled GCM data) at The Dalles NRNI RCP 4.5 RCP

49 VIC-modeled bias-corrected streamflow (using BCSDdownscaled GCM data) at Ice Harbor NRNI RCP 4.5 RCP

50 VIC-modeled bias-corrected streamflow (using BCSDdownscaled GCM data) at Grand Coulee NRNI RCP 4.5 RCP

51 Hydrologic simulations: overview Parameter Set 1 BCSD downscaling MACA downscaling Dynamical downscaling RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 8.5 VIC Parameter Set 2 Parameter Set 3 PRMS Parameter Set 1 Each represents one of 172 ensemble members 51

52 Hydrologic simulations: overview Parameter Set 1 BCSD downscaling MACA downscaling Dynamical downscaling RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 8.5 VIC Parameter Set 2 Parameter Set 3 PRMS Parameter Set 1 Each represents one of 172 ensemble members 52

53 Hydrologic simulations: Comparison with previous study Climate Impacts Group Study UW/OSU study Two RCPs Two RCPs GCM data from AR3 (2007) GCM data from AR5 (2013) Downscaled using monthly GCM data Calibrated at 12 sites in basin Two downscaling methods use daily GCM data Calibration uses data from ~60 sites in basin 77 scenarios 172 scenarios Products: streamflow timeseries at 297 sites Products: streamflow timeseries at 388 sites 53

54 Expected benefits Updated climate impacts data set Improved understanding of the source of the spread in the projec>ons Large ensemble of climate change projec>ons that are of interest to PNW communi>es 54

55 Expected products Deliverables will be the streamflow >me series and hydrological data sets Very large datasets, but no foreseeable difficulty as: 55

56 Final products available end of 2016 emission scenarios global climate downscaling and bias correction hydrologic

57 Final products available end of 2016 emission scenarios global climate downscaling and bias correction hydrologic impact studies

58 Acknowledgements Bonneville Power Administra>on Bureau of Reclama>on Army Corps of Engineers 58